Manitoba a battleground in federal election

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 26/09/2015 (3641 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

We can expect to see more campaign planes touching down in Winnipeg, based on Saturday’s Probe poll results. The poll suggests the federal election race is a two-horse race for Manitoba, with the Conservatives and Liberals deadlocked for first place. Thirty-nine per cent of voters would vote for either Stephen Harper or Justin Trudeau, according to the poll (which has a margin of error of +/- 3.1 per cent). Only 18 per cent would support the NDP and Tom Mulcair.

These are stunning numbers for the Conservatives, who won the 2011 election and garnered 53 per cent support in Manitoba. The Liberals have climbed from just 17 per cent of the popular vote in 2011. And the NDP has dropped eight percentage points.

What does this mean for Manitoba? Well, in a federal race where regions shape party strategies, Manitoba just became a player in the election game. In years past, our limited number of seats — just 14 — resulted in our province being a fly-over for campaign stops. Now, with the tight contest between all three party leaders — most federal polls are saying the race is in a statistical tie — every seat counts. And in Manitoba, where the Tories hold 11 seats, the NDP two and the Liberals just one, the release of Probe’s analysis showing a statistical tie between the Tories and the Liberals means the fight is on.

And this explains in part, the sudden interest by Conservative Leader Stephen Harper to finally move forward on the Kapyong Barracks file, an 11-year-old eyesore in the middle of one of Winnipeg’s toniest Conservative neighbourhoods along one of the city’s busiest transportation corridors.

On Tuesday, Mr. Harper announced a Tory government would not appeal a recent Federal Court of Appeal decision that obliges Ottawa to consult fully and substantially with First Nations on the fate of the site.

This is long overdue, but the sudden turnaround by Mr. Harper no doubt has more to do with political optics than social justice.

Regardless of why the decision is made, it’s good for the city. Take the win, however it occurs.

These polling numbers may also explain why the normally media-shy and reticent Tory leader allowed CJOB the opportunity to interview him, an offer he made to no other media outlet in Winnipeg. Instead, as with most other visits, Mr. Harper restricted media questions and access. Again, as the brilliant strategist he is, Mr. Harper knows exactly what button to push to ensure his message gets out to those committed to voting for him.

The tight polling numbers between the Liberals and the Conservatives may also explain why the Liberals have made this a regular campaign stop. So far, Mr. Trudeau was here twice in the pre-campaign period in July, once in the official campaign and is expected to return again next week. His party could make serious inroads with the potential to win up to five seats — a huge improvement over the one seat they currently hold in Winnipeg North.

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And the very poor numbers in the Probe polling results for the NDP may mean leader Tom Mulcair will have to work very hard to get rid of the provincial hangover brought on by Greg Selinger and an NDP government that’s been fading in popularity since it hiked the PST in 2013.

While Mr. Mulcair has been here twice so far since the official writ drop, he may have decided there are no more inroads to make and to concentrate his efforts elsewhere.

True, this is no 905 beltway. Manitoba did not get an increase in seats when the new riding maps were outlined, increasing the total seats to 338 from 308. Ontario got the lion’s share of new ridings with 15 — more than all of Manitoba alone — while Alberta and B.C. got six and Quebec got three.

Still, with the Conservatives sensing there could be losses at a time when they need every seat they can get, the time is ripe for a some campaign attention.

Let’s just enjoy the ride for now.