Manitoba ridings to watch

By: Mary Agnes Welch and Kristin Annable Posted: 3:00 AM CDT Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015

On Tuesday, Manitobans could wake up to a host of new MPs in the province. Rarely have so many seats been up for grabs - and so many races too close to call. Here's a look at the ridings to watch Monday, the wild cards and the rest.

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Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 17/10/2015 (3671 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

On Tuesday, Manitobans could wake up to a host of new MPs in the province. Rarely have so many seats been up for grabs – and so many races too close to call. Here’s a look at the ridings to watch Monday, the wild cards and the rest.

TOO CLOSE TO CALL

Elmwood-Transcona: This is the only Manitoba riding the New Democrats are targeting, hoping to deny Tory MP Lawrence Toet a second term. In addition to a last name well-known in the riding, NDP candidate Daniel Blaikie has had significant help on the ground from local unions and from LeadNow, a national strategic voting group advising residents to vote NDP as the best hope to defeat Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

Winnipeg South: Former city councillor and Liberal Terry Duguid is making his fourth bid for Parliament in this suburban riding. The riding has no Conservative incumbent since MP Rod Bruinooge stepped down. This time, University of Manitoba physiologist Gordon Giesbrecht is the rookie Tory candidate. He ran into some early trouble when an old video surfaced in which he compared abortion to the Holocaust.

NDP Daniel Blaikie and Lawrence Toet signs cover Elmwood-Transcona, which was a very close race in the 2011 election. (Boris Minkevich / Winnipeg Free Press)

Winnipeg South Centre: Arguably the most-watched riding in Winnipeg, it’s been a pitched battle from the start between Conservative MP Joyce Bateman and Liberal challenger Jim Carr in a riding the Liberals are targeting hard. In a tense debate hosted by the local Jewish community, Bateman earned many boos after reading a list of Liberal candidates whose support of Israel were questioned. Award-winning teacher Matt Henderson has waged a scrappy campaign for the New Democrats and has been battling calls for strategic voting to oust the Conservatives.

Kildonan-St. Paul: Former Winnipeg Football Club president Jim Bell has taken over the Conservative mantle for retiring MP Joy Smith, which has, along with two strong candidates fielded by the Liberals and NDP, put the riding in play. Former provincial NDP cabinet minister MaryAnn Mihychuk has been running for more than a year for the Liberals and could be buoyed by the party’s strong national poll numbers. Nurse and former trustee Suzanne Hrynyk is running for the NDP.

Saint Boniface-Saint Vital: Former area city councillor Dan Vandal has been door-knocking for a year, hoping to win the riding back for the Liberals. With Heritage Minister Shelly Glover no longer on the ballot, the Conservatives chose businessman François Catellier to carry their flag. He has run a low-key campaign, his thunder stolen somewhat by the last-minute decision by former NDP provincial health minister Erin Selby to jump in the race for her party.

WILD CARDS

Charleswood-St. James-Assiniboia-Headingley: Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau is holding his last rally in Winnipeg in this riding tonight because the Grits have a long-shot notion they can beat Conservative MP Steven Fletcher Monday. Running for the Liberals is ER doctor Doug Eyolfson, who has been helped by the implosion of the NDP campaign in the area. Midway through the race, the NDP rushed to punt candidate Stefan Jonasson over an old tweet comparing an ultra-conservative Jewish sect to the Taliban for how it treats women.

Churchill-Keewatinook Aski: The race in the massive northern riding has been testy, dominated by accusations Liberal candidate Rebecca Chartrand has no roots in the north and NDP MP Niki Ashton’s family has a political monopoly on the region. The Liberals have won the riding in the past, but Chartrand doesn’t have the cash and volunteers Ashton does in a riding where the ground game is everything.

Winnipeg Centre: If the spin from Liberal Robert-Falcon Ouellette’s camp is to be believed, longtime NDP MP Pat Martin may be in the fight of his political life. It’s been a rancorous race — in which Martin has used profanity against his competitors — but the NDP’s grip on the riding is legendary. Stirring the pot has been Green candidate Don Woodstock, who has repeatedly accused Martin of doing little for the poor or mentally ill in the inner city.

THE REST

Portage-Lisgar: Area MP Candice Bergen won her riding by the heftiest margin in the province in 2011. Despite criticism she’s ducked debates and spent part of the race campaigning for Conservatives elsewhere in the country, it’s unlikely her seat is vulnerable.

Provencher: It might be a diehard Conservative riding, but voters still showed a keen interest in the race by packing a rare all-candidates debate in Steinbach. Rookie Conservative MP Ted Falk, who participated in a debate for the first time, is likely to keep the seat he won two years ago in a byelection despite a well-organized campaign by Liberal Terry Hayward.

photos by BORIS MINKEVICH / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS files
ABOVE: Saint Boniface-Saint Vital Liberal candidate Dan Vandal meets Louise Voyer while campaigning in his riding. RIGHT: Campaign signs for NDP candidate Daniel Blaikie and Tory Lawrence Toet dot the Elmwood-Transcona riding. — photos by BORIS MINKEVICH / WINNIPEG FREE PRESS files ABOVE: Saint Boniface-Saint Vital Liberal candidate Dan Vandal meets Louise Voyer while campaigning in his riding. RIGHT: Campaign signs for NDP candidate Daniel Blaikie and Tory Lawrence Toet dot the Elmwood-Transcona riding.

Brandon-Souris: Conservative MP Larry Maguire won his seat in a byelection squeaker in 2013, but the race isn’t expected to be as close despite a solid Liberal campaign run by Jodi Wyman and an energetic bid by Green candidate David Neufeld. The race has been dominated by several all-candidates debates and an uncommon level of civility.

Selkirk-Interlake-Eastman: It’s tough to imagine Conservative MP James Bezan losing his seat. Bezan won in 2011 with 66 per cent of the vote. It’s worth noting Deborah Chief, a former Brokenhead Ojibway chief is running for the NDP, which could lead to an increase in NDP votes in the region.

Dauphin-Swan River-Neepawa: Another rural riding that most see as a Conservative stronghold. However, Conservative MP Robert Sopuck has his hands full this election as he’s battled two former MPs, including predecessor Inky Mark who is running as an independent. Laverne Lewycky, who was the New Democrat MP for one term in 1980, is running again for the NDP.

Winnipeg North: It was one of the closest races in 2011: Liberal MP Kevin Lamoureux beat NDP candidate Rebecca Blaikie by only 44 votes. This time, there haven’t been as many resources or manpower given to NDP candidate Levy Abad, who will find it a challenge to unseat the popular MP.

maryagnes.welch@freepress.mb.ca

kristin.annable@freepress.mb.ca