Jets autopsy, part 1: How did we get here?

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This article was published 06/04/2016 (3502 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Winnipeg Jets will limp to the finish line of their 2015-16 NHL season this weekend, both literally and figuratively, bringing to an end a campaign that started with so much hope and ends with equal amounts disappointment.

There were questions — although hardly alarm bells — as the season opened, but almost no one expected such a dramatic step back. Not after last spring’s spectacular run to the playoffs for the first time in Jets 2.0 history and all those signs of growth and promise, even as they were swept out in the opening round by the Anaheim Ducks.

Now, every NHL roster undergoes change with every off-season and the Jets were no different. Out were Michael Frolik, Lee Stempniak, Jim Slater and Jiri Tlusty, replaced by Alex Burmistrov, Nikolaj Ehlers, Andrew Copp and — as the curtain lifted on the season — Nic Petan.

And, after a promising start to 2015-16 through October, had everyone in Jets Nation gleefully rubbing their hands together at what might come next.

What happened instead was a slow descent that has the Jets last in the Central Division and near the bottom of the overall standings.

How did it come to this? And why, given all the doom and gloom that has hung over this team since early January, does there seem to be so much excitement about what next fall will bring?

Over the next three days Free Press hockey writers Tim Campbell and Ed Tait will revisit this past season, reviewing the campaign in detail, focussing on some areas in need of repair for the franchise to get back into the playoff discussion and then outlining what the expectations might be for next year and beyond.

This is going to mean opening some fresh wounds here, but in order to assess what happened this season it’s important to relive some of the good, and a lot of the bad. To that end, the year has been broken up into five segments, in which what went right, what went wrong and what was learned will be detailed.

 

1. Bursting out of the starting blocks

Games 1-13: 8-4-1

What went right?

After a significant advancement in 2014-15, the Jets had not forgotten how to get wins. They started with three victories on a four-game road trip and were 8-4-1 after a victory in Toronto on Nov. 4. The power play was tied for 10th (21.6 per cent) through this segment and penalty killing was 10th (83.7) overall.

What went wrong?

Hindsight, being perfect, might have raised questions as the Jets lost to the Islanders, Blues, Kings and hot Habs during this segment. Goals against at this point was already trending in the wrong way, off from last season’s 2.44 average. Even with a winning record at this point it was 2.69 with 35 goals against already. Also, through 13 games, the team was already near the worst number of times short-handed, a dubious title won last year though that was a bullet escaped.

What was learned?

Wins seemed to trump all, and 8-4-1 (2-1-0 to start against divisional opponents) seemed to be just the right pace for the road back to the playoffs in the tough Central Division. There was talk from within that the team was still “off” a little but that a minor defensive looseness could be dealt with.

 

 2.  A significant stumble

Games 14-25: 3-8-1; overall: 11-12-2

 

What went right?

Very little, frankly. The encouraging start to the season became a tire fire by the end of November as just about every one of the Jets’ warts were exposed. On top of that, Ondrej Pavelec was injured in a collision with Shane Doan on Nov. 21, although that opened the door for Connor Hellebuyck to make his first NHL start six days later in Minnesota, a 3-1 win in which he had to make only 15 saves.

 

What went wrong?

The Jets went on a six-game winless streak (0-5-1) that included an 0-4 road trip through their Central-Division neighbourhood in which they gave up 21 goals. The power play operated at just 10 per cent (4 for 40) while the penalty kill was lit up for 13 goals over the same span (35 for 48).

 

What was learned?

Just how thin the margin for error was for this team. The defensive blueprint was torched — over this stretch the goals surrendered per game was a grotesque 3.75 per game.

 

3. Treading water/maintaining optimism

Games 26-41: 8-7-1, overall 19-19-3

 

What went right?

The attempted correction from a wounding November started with three of four wins in December, but momentum was hard to maintain. December brought six home wins but only a record of 6-6-0 and the road trip to start January went a respectable 2-2-1, leaving the team at .500 and last in the Central but importantly, only four points off the playoff line at the season’s half-way point.

 

What went wrong?

Already, six attempts to get to a three-game winning streak failed. The team’s road record continued to sag badly, 2-6-1 in this segment. A red flag also became the fact that though defensive numbers improved in this segment (goals against average 2.30 over the 16 games), the team barely came out of it .500. The lost cause of special teams showed here, outscored 14-7 in this segment with a power play that was blanked in 10 of the 16 games.

 

What was learned?

For all their troubles and issues, including the continuing unresolved contract situations with Dustin Byfuglien and Andrew Ladd, the Jets were within striking distance when they arrived at the halfway point. Two favourable stretches of schedule (January and March) were still ahead, fuelling some optimism, and Hellebuyck confirmed his status as a blue-chip prospect and future NHLer.

 

4. The nosedive

Games 42-60: 7-10-1; overall: 26-30-4

 

What went right?

The Jets returned from a crazy five-games-in-eight-days road trip at 19-19-3 overall and, for all their issues, were still in the Western Conference playoff discussion. That set up what was coming next perfectly — nine of their next 10 at home. The Jets emerged from that stretch just 3-7 and — save for the news of Dustin Byfuglien’s contract extension on Feb. 8 — the black clouds had settled in overhead.

 

What went wrong?

The first game of this portion set the tone for what would follow. Evander Kane made his first appearance in Winnipeg since last year’s blockbuster trade with the Buffalo Sabres and the Jets — perhaps trying to mute all the hype surrounding the match-up — served up an emotionless absolute dud of an effort in a 4-2 loss. The nosedive took a dramatic shift downward from that point. Within a week in mid-February, Bryan Little was lost for the season and Ladd, the captain and a fixture in the room since Day 1, had been shipped to Chicago.

 

What was learned?

Maybe it was the influx of youth, maybe it was the uncertainty of the Ladd/Byfuglien contract situations, but the resolve that became the trademark of the 2014-15 Jets just wasn’t there in the most-critical chunk of the season. Over a nine-game stretch from Jan. 10 to Feb. 2 during which the team was 3-6, those six losses included a 2-1 setback to the Colorado Avalanche and 3-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils, but also four other games in which they surrendered an empty-net goal. Close, but not close enough.

 

 5. Playing out the string

 Games 61-82: 8-9-4 so far, 33-39-8 (with two games to play)

 

What went right?

Young players begin auditions as injuries mount, offering future hope. One element of special teams improves drastically; the team’s penalty-killing is 86.5 per cent in this segment. The team’s penchant for taking penalties moderates but it will still finish in the NHL’s worst three teams for times shorthanded. To be taken with a measure of garbage-time discount is that in the last nine games, the Jets are 4-2-3 with a good shots-against profile of 28.8 per game, a goals-against average of 2.06 and a save percentage of .927. But all that too late.

 

What went wrong?

Injuries. Bryan Little, Anthony Peluso, Nikolaj Ehlers, Toby Enstrom, Joel Armia, J.C. Lipon, Tyler Myers and Matthieu Perreault all missed significant time or were shut down. Not surprisingly, the playoff position got farther and farther away as each week passed. The power play continued to be utterly awful, falling to last-ranked in the NHL. It’s had zeroes in 15 of the last 17 games.

 

What we learned?

Again, no three-game winning streaks (tonight marks the 11th attempt). Mark Scheifele finds another gear after Little’s injury, 15-15-30 in the 24 games since. The team’s prospect list does have some future candidates.

And September’s training camp seems a long way away.

 

tim.campbell@freepress.mb.ca

ed.tait@freepress.mb.ca