Jets autopsy, part 3: Not great expectations

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This article was published 08/04/2016 (3462 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It’s said a hockey season is like a marathon, a long and gruelling trek, as much about endurance as speed and skill.

The Winnipeg Jets 2015-16 marathon concludes Saturday night at Staples Center in Los Angeles, and when this crew takes its final step over the finish line the numbers on the official time clock will be ugly. And the pain from countless blisters and aching muscles will be mind-numbing.

The same could be said of those who have watched the Jets all season, teased through the first two-thirds of the season and then frustrated as reality set in for the final chunk. Yet as we conclude the third and final instalment of Jets autopsy, there remains a real sense of optimism about this franchise.

Sure, there is frustration as a loyal fan base looks to point the fingers of blame. But with prospects arriving and more on the horizon there is also still a faith in the blueprint, as slow as it has been to put into practice.

Today, in Part III — What to expect when you’re expecting — Free Press hockey writers Tim Campbell and Ed Tait discuss what’s ahead.

 

AUDITION GUYS

Tait: Of all the young prospects who have had a chance to impress down the stretch, which two or three gained the most traction for next year’s training camp?

I’ve seen flashes from Joel Armia but, then again, that was the scouting report when he came over from Buffalo. And four goals and nine points in 42 games doesn’t exactly have me writing his name in ink on the depth chart.

Marko Dano can be hard on the puck, but hasn’t jumped off the page for me, either.

So two names, for two different reasons, of guys who have stepped up in my opining: 1. Nic Petan, because I think his game got better after being sent to the Moose last fall and there has to be a place somewhere for his skill.

2. Julian Melchiori, because I hadn’t even considered him a prospect, but now think he could be a decent third-paring/seventh defenceman.

Campbell: I agree with you thoroughly on Armia but I think his ability to do things and make plays at NHL speed gives him an inside track. I really liked how Scott Kosmachuk handled his audition; it surprised me a little. But it’s a small sample size, so I’ll give the edge to Dano for now for my second choice here.

 

‘NON-AUDITION’ GUYS

Campbell: What about among the prospects who didn’t get a look this season or aren’t in the fold yet? That’s a tougher bit of speculation, but you can put me in the camp that thinks Brendan Lemieux has got something this organization needs. And it doesn’t quite fit here (and isn’t fair to the category above), but I think Josh Morrissey did as much as one prospect can do in one NHL game to warrant a little faith in his development.

Tait: Agreed on Lemieux. JC Lipon could provide that ‘shift disturber’ role, too, although maybe with not as much offensive upside. Morrissey’s skating is elite and I thought in his brief call-up he showed an edge that wasn’t there before. I’m also going to toss out Tucker Poolman’s name here. He’s big (6-3, 210) and, even though he’s a right-hand shot, the Jets have flipped guys from one side to the other on their blue line.

IS CONNOR READY FOR PRIME TIME?

 

Tait: Everyone has been gushing about Kyle Connor since the day he was drafted and especially after what he did at Michigan, but is he ready?

The Jets have to be careful with this guy. His situation is similar to Nikolaj Ehlers’ situation, in my opinion. If he’s not going to be in the Top 6 — or at the very least, on the third line but with big power-play minutes — then I’m not sure a year with the Moose wouldn’t be best. Not sure what going back to Michigan does to help him.

Campbell: Nobody’s going to have to teach him offence, but the NHL’s more than that. There’s potential for egg on one’s face in speculating here because of how Dylan Larkin, from the same program with a similar track record, excelled for the Wings this year, but I have a hard time seeing Connor handed a job without some semblance of a well-rounded game. Ehlers is a great comparison, which should help the Jets in handling this one. Longer-term, this guy’s likely to boost the Jets’ draft record big-time.

PING PONG BALLS

Campbell: Do you think there’s a 2016-17 roster player for the Jets from the draft lottery? Apart from winning the top pick, which seems more remote by the day. I wouldn’t be banking on it. I just think residence in the Central Division makes it all the more difficult for an 18-year-old.

Tait: If the balls bounce the right way — can I say that in a family newspaper? — and the Jets land Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine or Jesse Puljujarvi, then the answer is yes. But, let’s face it, most of us are just relying on the reports of others who have seen those three play more. If they hit the jackpot and land one of those guys, they could also find a place in the Top 9 and, possibly, earn their way up the depth chart.

 

IS IT SCHEIFELE OR $$$CHEIFELE?

 

Tait: No player in the NHL has more goals since Feb. 18 than Mark Scheifele. He’s a restricted free-agent this summer… what’s ahead for him?

Even before his recent hot streak, Scheifele had done enough to earn a big pay day. If I’m the Jets, I’m trying to lock him up for as much term as possible, even if the AAV is high. He’s growing up in this organization, likes Winnipeg and his work ethic is remarkable. He’s a cornerstone. What’s that worth? Maybe US$4.5-5 million?

Campbell: Agreed, the more term the better. The price is guess-work for me but I think he’s earned a core-player raise. The Jets have saved their cap space for just such a player; if they won’t spend it on Scheifele, then who?

 

LETTERING

Campbell: That’s a sweet-spot segue into the next subject… is Scheifele a candidate for the captaincy? We have a colleague or two in that camp. I don’t know the answer (don’t you love my waffling?) but I could lay a wager he’s in line for a letter of some sort.

Tait: Scheifele is a candidate for the ‘C’, but Blake Wheeler is next in line in my opinion. He is the most public face of the franchise now and has earned it. I’d consider Scheifele as an alternate captain, along with Bryan Little and Dustin Byfuglien.

 

VETS, UFAs, FAs

Tait: Another segue to another topic… how will this youthful makeover the Jets are undergoing now and will undergo again next fall affect long-serving vets such as Mark Stuart — who currently wears an ‘A’ — and Chris Thorburn?

This franchise has been loyal, perhaps to a fault sometimes. There’s a value in experience, but if the younger guys are better next fall, how do they handle that? Can you keep those guys as a seventh D-man or 13th forward? Matt Halischuk is the only notable unrestricted free agent — Grant Clitsome, who is expected to retire because of back issues and Thomas Raffl are the others — and I really don’t expect the Jets to be a player in free agency.

Campbell: That one’s simple. It’s up to those veterans to maintain and enhance their game to a level that keeps them in the lineup. On the road they’re on, the Jets risk ruining the culture they’re trying to build if any players are in without merit. That’s why the building competition among prospects stands to really improve the team over time.

 

TENDER SUBJECT

 

Campbell: What of next year’s Jets in goal? So many people are quoting so many numbers regarding Ondrej Pavelec, Michael Hutchinson and Connor Hellebuyck. There’s more than numbers to this one. I think folks have been too quick to toss Pavelec under the bus, especially given he’s been the starter on a franchise in flux. And while I think the Jets have drafted a future stud goalie, the stampede to anoint him befuddles me, if only because it’s dangerous to do it too soon.

Tait: I hear what you’re saying, compadre, but I’m in the Hellebuyck camp. As you said, it’s up to the vets to enhance or maintain their level to stay in the lineup and that standard has to apply to Pavelec — even more than it does to the likes of Stuart and Thorburn. If I’m to stare into a crystal ball, I think it will be Hellebuyck and Pavelec to open next season and then who gets the bigger workload depends on the results.

 

TRUE TO TROUBA?

Tait: We touched on Scheifele, but what of the Jets’ other high-profile restricted free agent, Jacob Trouba?

There’s a theory floating out there that these two camps might not be on the same page in terms of a long-term deal and Trouba might be looking at a bridge deal versus a long-term agreement. He came into the league so young and looked so solid early, I wonder if everyone hasn’t rushed their expectations of him. It’s not my money to throw around, but I’d be offering him term and big dollars, just like Scheifele.

Campbell: Once again, it seems to me this is a player you’ve been reserving cap space for. But if it has to be a bridge deal, it could well wind up more expensive in the long term, but it’s not the worst thing. And if it does wind up more expensive via that route, at least you’d have more certainty what he is as a player after, say, five years, than three.

 

WHAT’S ALL THAT AMOUNT TO?

Campbell: So it comes down to this: what should fans’ expectations realistically be and are the Jets a playoff team next season?

Expectations are a good thing, but without the blinders. This season the team went young. Whether you liked that or not, in hindsight, it should have tempered expectations at least a little. I’ll stay cautious on next season and say now the playoffs might be too high to reach in the Central, just because it’s the Central. Can I buy an option on ‘really optimistic’ if goaltending pans out?

Tait: The key component here in whatever your prediction is — more growing pains or a return to respectability — is whether you believe last year’s franchise-record 99 points was an anomaly. I still like the Jets’ pieces and think the answers to some of their key needs could be — heaving emphasis on ‘could be’ — in the system. The Central is a beast, but Colorado has its issues, as does Minnesota. But there’s still so much distance between what the Jets are and where Chicago, St. Louis and Dallas are right now, this isn’t going to get easier, especially in the midst of this youthful makeover. I see improvement in the points department, but still more growing pains.

ed.tait@freepress.mb.ca

tim.campbell@freepress.mb.ca