NDP risks losing only seat in Westman

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This article was published 09/04/2016 (3443 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

BRANDON — Brandon East has never known anything but the NDP in the 47 years the riding has existed, and it’s only had two New Democrat MLAs, the late Len Evans and incumbent Drew Caldwell.

But there’s speculation this could be the time it goes blue.

“There’s a lot of dislike for Greg Selinger over the last two years. Greg Selinger has made some errors in judgment,” said one of the Brandon East candidates this week.

Is it Tory Len Isleifson? Liberal Vanessa Hamilton?

Would you believe Municipal Affairs Minister Drew Caldwell, card-carrying New Democrat, Selinger loyalist and four-time incumbent?

Caldwell said Brandon East voters dislike Selinger, but they loathe Tory Leader Brian Pallister, and they aren’t impressed by the little they know about Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari.

Selinger’s “errors have been generous towards people, not marginalizing people,” Caldwell rationalized.

“Nobody likes any of the leaders. No one trusts Mr. Pallister — there’s a real loathing of his extremism. They know him as one of the raw meat right-wingers in Gary Filmon’s cabinet.”

Caldwell spent much of his career as a backbencher after a rocky start as education minister, but he’s the lone NDP MLA in western Manitoba.

Observers say this election is about saving Caldwell’s seat, to the point the NDP is putting resources into Brandon East at the cost of Linda Ross’s campaign in Brandon West.

There, incumbent Tory Reg Helwer is looking comfortable in the polls running against Ross, a Brandon University professor and a school trustee on leave from the Brandon board.

Still, the NDP has occasionally taken Brandon West, and Tory margins of victory haven’t been that great when the NDP won majorities.

The Liberal vote could be pivotal. The party is running Billy Moore, the 76-year-old from Portage la Prairie who has become invisible since declaring he favours closing some hospitals as a way to deter people from getting sick. Moore later said he was just kidding in order to get publicity.

Brandon University political science Prof. Kelly Saunders predicted the Tories will sweep Westman.

“He’s (Caldwell) going to be caught up in a blue wave,” Saunders said. “If it’s ever going to be in play for the Conservatives, it’s this year.”

Isleifson retired from city council before the 2014 election to run provincially; he worked more than 20 years as regional manager of security services for Prairie Mountain Health.

“Poverty is the root of a lot of issues,” he said. But if the Tories can develop the economy, “People get good-paying jobs, they take better care of themselves,” he said.

Hamilton, a former New Democrat who lost several earlier election bids, replaced Isleifson on council, only to step down and force a byelection. A healthy living facilitator with the same regional health authority for which Isleifson worked, Hamilton said Brandon East has had it with the NDP and is afraid of the cuts she expects Brian Pallister will make.

“Who does that leave? Me,” she said.

“The city is polarized — here she is in the middle,” said Brandon political analyst Deveryn Ross. “In November, she had a shot. If there’s a candidate hurt by Rana Bokhari’s performance, it’s Vanessa Hamilton.”

Ross said the election will be very close between Caldwell and Isleifson. “This is the only riding that matters in southwestern Manitoba. The priority appears to be, save Drew.”

City Coun. Geoff Fawcett echoed several locals chatting with Ross over coffee one morning, who had been hoping Bokhari would be more impressive. They haven’t seen much in Pallister to inspire them.

“I believe Selinger is going to lose the election, and by default, Pallister is going to win,” Fawcett said.

Saunders said outsiders believe the income levels between west and east in Brandon are greater than they are in reality. “That divide isn’t as sharp as it used to be,” she said, but Brandon’s feelings about the NDP government don’t help Selinger: “There’s a lot of resentment out here, that they only care about Winnipeg and the north.”

BU student president Nick Brown and vice-president Greg Monias of Thompson said there are many students at BU and Assiniboine Community College in both ridings, whose votes could be crucial — if they vote.

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“There’s a large push for indigenous voters. Brandon has a huge aboriginal population,” Monias said.

Brown said he and Monias couldn’t believe Helwer’s statement at a debate at BU, trashing Selinger’s plan to increase taxes on the two per cent wealthiest Manitobans.

Helwer said taxing the wealthy more would drive doctors out of Manitoba. “Greg and I turned to each other and said, ‘He’s talking to a room full of people who are broke,’” Brown laughed.

nick.martin@freepress.mb.ca