NDP hopes attacking Pallister’s wealth pays off

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This article was published 10/04/2016 (3535 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It smacks of desperation, a political Hail Mary launched by a government facing an electoral thrashing.

Having said that, NDP Leader Greg Selinger’s bid Sunday to draw attention to Progressive Conservative Leader Brian Pallister’s wealth will make the last full week of the campaign more interesting.

Selinger summoned reporters to his modest St. Boniface home to reveal his income tax return. It showed, not surprisingly, his financial status is pretty mundane. He only earns income from his salary as the premier ($147,347) and other than his principal residence, he and his wife have two cottage properties.

The disclosure was not, however, designed just to confirm Selinger has a boring financial profile. It was a last-ditch bid to derail the Progressive Conservative party’s steady and inevitable march to a majority government. In this case, by attempting to connect the dots between himself, Pallister and the Panama Papers — the huge dump of confidential legal papers from a Panamanian law firm that revealed the secret offshore tax dodges of business and political leaders around the world.

At the top of that heap is British Prime Minister David Cameron, who was forced to release six years of income tax returns after it was revealed he had benefited from an offshore investment. Selinger used the Panama Papers as a hook to make his own disclosure.

“I do not have any offshore accounts — no secret accounts anywhere,” Selinger said, bypassing the fact that before his news conference, no one had thought to ask any of Manitoba’s political leaders if they had squirrelled away cash in a Cayman Island shell company account. Within a few hours, Liberal Leader Rana Bokhari responded by releasing her 2013 return that showed $37,670 in income.

The Tories declined the NDP invitation to release any of Pallister’s tax information. “Greg Selinger’s last-minute election stunt is desperate,” the Tories said in a news release.

Desperate? You betcha.

Selinger’s NDP continues to trail badly in polls that show Pallister’s Tories well out in front. Trying to draw a line between an election in Manitoba and the Panama Papers revelations is a long bow by any measurement. However, this last-ditch bit of gamesmanship likely has less to do with offshore tax dodges, and more to do with the fact the NDP knows the Tories would rather not discuss Pallister’s net worth with an election just days away.

To fully understand the NDP strategy, we have to go back to 2012 when Pallister, shortly after taking over the helm of the Tory party, purchased a $2-million, 9,000-square-foot Wellington Crescent mansion located on 1.7 acres of prime riverfront property.

Pallister maintained a successful financial planning business in Portage la Prairie during his political career. After becoming Tory leader, he reportedly sold the business for millions. Pallister confirmed a portion of those proceeds was invested in a prime piece of Winnipeg real estate.

That seems reasonable, except that the house is an ostentatious display of wealth in a province that does not necessarily admire or reward people with ostentatious wealth. Longtime Tory insiders were appalled, worried Pallister’s estate would, at some point, become a wedge issue. Although Selinger didn’t talk specifically about Pallister’s home, it seemed evident that it, and not the Panama Papers, is the real reason he brought up this issue at this stage of the campaign.

Until now, the NDP has been mostly unsuccessful in putting any dent in the PC campaign despite the fact there are some natural fault lines in Pallister’s performance that could be exploited.

Just about every poll has shown Pallister lags badly behind his party in terms of popular support. Most polls show only about one-third of respondents believe he would make a good premier, a dangerously low level of personal popularity and an anomaly for a party that is leading in the polls.

In a typical election, Pallister’s meagre support would serve as a scab opponents could pick at. In this campaign, however, he is the best of a bad lot; both Selinger and Bokhari have even less support among poll respondents. The result is that although voters have hardly warmed to Pallister, they seem more than willing to support him to avoid having to vote for the other two leaders.

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Selinger’s negatives — his broken promise on the PST hike and the bid by five cabinet members to force him from office — have been too numerous and burdensome to allow him much leverage to attack Pallister.

And yet, recent political history has shown politicians who refuse to reveal the intimate details of their financial holdings — particularly when directly challenged by opponents — have generally suffered in the court of public opinion. In essence, politicians who refuse to participate in public disclosure have immediately, easily been attacked as having something to hide. (Cameron, it should be noted, eventually did release his tax information only after being pilloried for not doing so.)

The challenge for the NDP, and perhaps the Liberals in a supporting role, is to keep the story alive long enough to be used against Pallister in the remaining leaders debates. It seems to be a sure thing at the first opportunity today, Pallister will be asked whether he will release his income tax return.

Unknown at this point is whether Pallister will relent. More certain is the fact he will face the question more than once before election day.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.