Forecast shows Winnipeg population to grow to 922,600 by 2040

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This article was published 17/08/2016 (3375 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Winnipeg’s strong population growth over the next 25 years justifies a new fee on the development industry to cover the needed infrastructure.

Mayor Brian Bowman released the city’s first population, housing and economic forecast Wednesday morning and used the opportunity to support his position for a new growth development fee to be charged to the development and home building industry.

Bowman said that while the city has a variety of revenue sources available to it to help pay for infrastructure, he said Winnipeg doesn’t have the one tool that every other municipality uses to finance costs associated with a community’s growth.

“We’re the only major city in Canada and the only municipality in Manitoba that does not have that revenue tool to meet the infrastructure demands of today but also to prepare for the future.”

The forecast released Wednesday predicts that Winnipeg’s population growth over the next 25 years is expected to average 8,200 people annually; the city’s population is expected to grow to 922,600 by 2040.

The forecast was based on data and analysis culled from Statistics Canada and from forecasts purchased from the Conference Board of Canada.

While the city forecast presents a rosy future of steady growth for Winnipeg, it was clear that Bowman was using the findings to undermine concerns from the development industry that a new fee would result in a dramatic decline in housing starts.

Bowman said the population growth is expected to drive the demand for an additional 100,000 housing units, or about 4,000 new units per year for the next 25 years.

“Our city is growing and our population is projected to grow strongly and steadily well into the future,” Bowman said. “We need to ask ourselves how are we going to pay for that growth and who is going to pay for it – Is it going to be every existing property owner, which I obviously don’t support, or is it those that choose to build.”

The development industry views the proposed growth fee, which Bowman first proposed at Chamber of Commerce luncheon in February, as an unnecessary tax on new homeowners. Industry representative maintain they pay for all needed services in new developments and the property taxes generated by the new homes provide funds for the city’s growth.

But Bowman said that new growth strains regional services — roads, transit, sewer and water, recreation, leisure and parks — that aren’t covered by current fees. The city says there’s a growing gap between the infrastructure the city needs now and into the future and the amount of revenue it’s able to raise through property taxes and existing fees and charges.

Development and home building representative will meet with Hemson Consulting Thursday to review its preliminary findings from a study it has conducted to look at costs associated with growth and how those costs can be financed. Hemson has looked at how other municipalities across the country deal with the development industry and will be presenting a growth financing model to the local industry before submitting a final report by the end of the month.

Bowman said the Hemson study will show why a new fee is needed and how the city can legally impose a new fee on home builders.

Bowman said that while the new Pallister government – and the Selinger government before it – would not give the city any new taxing powers, any recommendation from the Hemson study will rely on existing powers at the city’s disposal.

“We are looking at what is available to us under our current authority and council will ultimately make decisions on that basis.”

While Bowman said he does not want to predict the findings of the Hemson report, it’s clear that he sees a new growth fee as a supplement to property taxes.

Bowman said other municipalities have introduced growth fees without seeing a decline in housing starts and doesn’t expect any other different scenario to unfold in Winnipeg.

“We understand the position of the home builders and we’re sensitive to it,” Bowman said. “We want to support growth and we want to support the industry and that’s exactly why we want to have objective information from a study that’s been commissioned by council so we have that information for that discussion.”

aldo.santin@freepress.mb.ca

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