With a lot of offence and a little luck, Blue could give stingy Stamps a run for the Cup

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 27/09/2017 (2909 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

If, as we’ve been told forever, defence wins championships, you might as well hand the Grey Cup to the Calgary Stampeders right now.

The Stamps lead the CFL in virtually every defensive statistical category that matters, and they lead by a country mile in points surrendered, the one that matters most.

Calgary’s defence has yielded an average of just 16.2 points per game this season. That’s mind-boggling — the second-stingiest defence in the CFL this season is Ottawa, and they’ve given up close to a touchdown a game more than Calgary, at 21.9.

And the Bombers’ defence? They’re eighth in the nine-team CFL, ahead of only the woeful Hamilton Tiger-Cats in points surrendered, giving up more than 12 points a game more than Calgary, at 28.4.

So yeah, if defence wins championships then it stands to reason that a Calgary defence that is one of the best we’ve seen in memory should win a Grey Cup for fun this November.

But do defences really win championships? Is that old adage still as true in the modern CFL as it was back 40 or 50 years ago when the phrase was first coined and final scores were commonly measured in single digits?

And, more to the point, is it possible to overcome an average to below-average defence — which is what the statistics say the Bombers have this season — with a dominating offence which, the same stats also say, the Bombers have?

The answer, it turns out, is more complicated than pithy sayings.

Consider: Five of the last 10 Grey Cup winners were teams that also led the league in fewest points surrendered (Edmonton, 2015; Saskatchewan, 2013; B.C., 2011; Montreal, 2009; Calgary, 2008).

And a sixth Grey Cup winner in the last 10 years finished second in the CFL in points surrendered the season they won (Calgary, 2014).

Put it all together and it’s safe to say that yes, there is very definitely a strong statistical correlation in the CFL between the points your team surrenders in a season and the chances of your team winning a Grey Cup.

Defence, in other words, will more often than not win you a championship in Canada. Still.

But the good news for Winnipeg fans is that it’s not an outright deal-breaker if your defence isn’t the second coming of the Steel Curtain.

Four teams in the last 10 years have won Grey Cups with decidedly average defences: Ottawa, 2016; Toronto, 2012; Montreal, 2010; and Saskatchewan, 2007.

So what does that recipe look like? And is it the one that could end a 27-year Grey Cup drought for the Bombers this season?

Well, I’m not sure there are any meaningful lessons to be drawn from either Ottawa’s win last season or the Argos in 2012.

Both those teams had below-average defences (both were sixth in points against) and below-average offences (both were sixth in points for, although Ottawa did have a league-leading passing game in terms of yards last season).

It’s called the Crazy Football League for a reason and sometimes teams get hot and/or get lucky and defy all conventional wisdom to take down a title as Ottawa and Toronto did.

Still, if you’re counting on dumb luck to win you a championship, well, we’ve seen what that looks like in this town over the last quarter-century and counting. More dumb than luck.

But the more meaningful lesson for this year’s Bombers may be in the way Montreal won in 2010 and Saskatchewan won in 2007.

The Als and Riders had below-average defences those two seasons (sixth and fifth respectively in terms of points against) but they more than made up for it with offences that were both second in the league in points in those two championship seasons.

If the Bombers are going to somehow get past Calgary, that’s the formula that looks most suited to this 2017 squad.

Because while Calgary owns Winnipeg in virtually every defensive category, it’s the Bombers who lead the league in many offensive categories, including, perhaps most importantly, at quarterback.

While conventional wisdom the last couple years is that Calgary’s Bo Levi Mitchell is the best QB in the league, Matt Nichols leads the CFL right now in touchdown passes, passing efficiency and overall QB rating. (Hands up if you saw that coming. I certainly didn’t.)

And it’s the Bombers who also lead the league in points for per game, net offence and rushing yards, all key offensive categories.

If there’s a map to Portage and Main on the final Sunday of November, that’s the one and Nichols is going to have to be in the driver’s seat.

Now, it is true that a defence is more than the sum total of the points it surrenders and there are lots of other things to like about this one.

The depth, for starters. The loss of key players such as linebacker Ian Wild and defensive end Jamaal Westerman would have crippled many defences in the league, yet the Bombers head into this week’s game against Edmonton after one of their best defensive performances of the year in last Friday’s win over Ottawa.

And then there is that trademark of defensive co-ordinator Richie Hall: a defence almost magically adept at forcing turnovers at key times.

So yes, all of that stuff is good. But it’s just that Calgary’s defence is so much better.

While the Bombers, for instance, are third in the CFL with a plus-seven turnover ratio, Calgary leads the league in that category by just a bit at, wait for it… plus-20. That’s simply off-the-charts good.

And while Winnipeg’s defence has been a big part of the club’s current five-game winning streak at home, Calgary hasn’t been beaten at home since 2015 and are 24-1 at McMahon Stadium over the last three seasons.

Just wow.

In a season in which the East Division is awful, the Edmonton Eskimos are mired in a five-game losing streak, the B.C. Lions have won just twice in the West and the Saskatchewan Roughriders have Kevin Glenn as their starting quarterback, this year’s Grey Cup sure looks like a two-horse race between Calgary and Winnipeg.

The Bombers have ground — a lot of it — to make up on the Stamps. But they also have the offence to do it and a league history that suggests it can be done.

One last piece of league history — last year the Stamps led the CFL in both points for and points against, but it was the Redblacks who were fitted for Grey Cup rings at season’s end.

A great defence can win you a Grey Cup — and, less frequently, so can a great offence.

But every once in a while, a little bit of luck doesn’t hurt, either.

And we’re overdue for some of the good stuff in this town.

 

email: paul.wiecek@freepress.mb.ca

Twitter: @PaulWiecek