Tories close out year on high note

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This article was published 27/12/2018 (2673 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Manitoba’s Progressive Conservatives have enjoyed a very merry year in the polls, maintaining their strong lead over the opposition and earning a slightly higher show of support in Winnipeg to cap off 2018.

Probe Research conducted its last quarterly poll of the year for the Free Press from Nov. 27 to Dec. 6. It found the PCs have 44 per cent support among decided or leaning voters.

That’s the same number the governing party had in September, and up two per cent from results obtained in June.

Meantime, support for the Liberals and NDP grew across the province, with the Grits netting 21 per cent of decided and leaning voters (up one percentage point since September), compared with the NDP’s 27 per cent (up two per cent). The Greens saw a dip in results (five per cent, down from eight) and the Manitoba Party hit two per cent of support for the first time.

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Sixteen per cent of the 1,105 people polled were undecided.

The Tories racked up 35 per cent support within Winnipeg (up from 34 in September), as the NDP clung to 30 per cent and Liberals 27 per cent.

University of Manitoba political scientist Chris Adams said the Winnipeg results are “very good news” for the Progressive Conservatives, who are historically stronger outside the city.

“If you assume that they sweep much of southern Manitoba outside of the city, then that means that in the city, if they win a good proportion of seats, then they’re pretty well guaranteed a victory (in 2020),” Adams said.

Scott MacKay, president of Probe Research, said he wasn’t expecting much change in the year-end poll results, so he wasn’t surprised by the numbers. He wondered, however, whether the Liberals would gain more momentum and make a dent in NDP support before the 2020 election.

“Never say never. If they have a good leader and good policies, and they’re able to contest all of the constituencies and provide a candidate… they could really be a factor,” he said.

MacKay also mused about what, if any, kinds of crises could erode PC support.

“I don’t know whether ‘honeymoon’ is too strong of a word, but the Tories just continue to seem to be in control,” he said. “And the NDP haven’t really done anything since the last election and people are not really looking at them very seriously these days.”

The PCs have steadfastly promised to cut the provincial sales tax by a point, but MacKay said he’s “not sure that the public really cares about that anymore.” The scourge of crystal meth abuse in Manitoba communities is a bigger concern, he said.

“It is a big thing, and I know it’s very much on the public’s mind because when we ask people for their top issues, that one comes up a lot nowadays. So this government has to look seriously at that, because the public wants some action on this,” MacKay said.

Adams said south Winnipeg is likely to be a bellwether for who does well in the next election. The PCs are ahead in the southwest and southeast quadrants so far, with 37 per cent and 40 per cent support, respectively.

Adams said Premier Brian Pallister’s success in the southern part of the city can partly be attributed to his slate of strong female candidates, such as Rochelle Squires (Riel), Colleen Mayer (St. Vital) and Sarah Guillemard (Fort Richmond).

Historically, the Tories haven’t done as well among female voters as the other parties, he noted, but those candidates may help their cause.

“So if you’re a woman, middle-class voter and you might not like Pallister, you can still like your local candidate, and that’s been one of the positive strategies of the PCs,” Adams said.

In the latest poll results, 37 per cent of women supported the PCs, 29 per cent went with the NDP, and 26 per cent preferred the Liberals.

jessica.botelho@freepress.mb.caTwitter: @_jessbu