Community transmission, community apprehension By: Tom Brodbeck Posted: 7:00 PM CST Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2020

Opinion

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 18/11/2020 (1759 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Manitoba’s top doctor said he expected new pandemic measures would slow the spread of COVID-19 within a week.

Seven days after code red restrictions went provincewide, case numbers continue to climb, infection rates are at an all-time high — and it appears the Manitoba government has no realistic plan to do anything about it.

Dr. Brent Roussin, chief provincial public health officer, brought in sweeping new restrictions Nov. 12 at 12:01 a.m., including the closure of bars, restaurants and non-essential retail outlets. Businesses such as gyms and hair salons have been shut down and most not-for-profits, including places of worship, have been closed.

Manitoba used to have one of the best COVID-19 records in the country. Now, it has the worst.

Winnipeg has been in code red — Manitoba’s highest pandemic alert level — since Nov. 2.

The spread of the novel coronavirus continues unabated.

“We don’t expect a dramatic increase in cases in the Winnipeg area over the next little bit, because we had already been in a ‘red’ area,” Roussin said last week, announcing the latest measures. “So now with these new restrictions in place, probably as early as a week we can start seeing some beneficial numbers come.”

Instead, another 400 new cases were announced Wednesday, and the test positivity rate for the province hit a high of 14.2 per cent.

The daily, robotic messaging of “We’re all in this together” is falling on deaf ears. Communications strategies that may have worked in the spring (when there was little community spread and containment was relatively easy) are no longer effective. The conventional wisdom that closing some businesses and urging people to “limit their contacts” isn’t working.

Manitoba used to have one of the best COVID-19 records in the country. Now, it has the worst.

Public health officials lost the ability long ago to control the spread of this disease through effective contact tracing. They can’t locate the source of infections in close to half of cases, which makes it nearly impossible to deploy targeted measures to contain them.

The novel coronavirus is now deeply embedded in hospitals, personal care homes, workplaces, and households.

If there was a chance to beat the second wave of COVID-19 through rigorous emergency planning, it’s now lost. Whatever modelling government was relying on to project lower cases by mid-November was wrong.

If there was a chance to beat the second wave of COVID-19 through rigorous emergency planning, it’s now lost. Whatever modelling government was relying on to project lower cases by mid-November was wrong.

“Even with the ‘orange’ restrictions, we were anticipating better numbers,” Roussin said.

Once community transmission gains a foothold, it’s extremely difficult to trip up. There were more than 500 cases in the past week where public health officials couldn’t locate the source of the infection, said Roussin.

The focus now is on protecting hospital capacity. The fear is hospitals could become so overwhelmed, they can’t provide basic care, including to non-coronavirus patients.

Manitoba hospitals are still in the first of a three-phase pandemic contingency plan. Capacity has been expanded, but it’s come at a steep price: close to 800 elective and non-emergent surgeries have been cancelled since Oct. 26.

At the same time, dozens of health-care staff have been testing positive for COVID-19 each week and are booking off work to self-isolate. The longer this goes, the less sustainable it becomes.

The second phase of the hospital contingency plan includes opening new spaces within hospitals.

Health Minister Cameron Friesen wouldn’t say Wednesday how close hospitals are to that, but it can’t be far off. ICU admissions are climbing steadily and there’s no sign of letting up.

At the same time, dozens of health-care staff have been testing positive for COVID-19 each week and are booking off work to self-isolate. The longer this goes, the less sustainable it becomes.

The third phase includes opening treatment sites outside hospitals for low-acuity patients.

“We know exactly what we can do to bring these numbers down,” said Roussin.

That line rings more hollow each passing week.

Short of a strict lockdown that includes a ban on gatherings (including the elimination of the household-plus-five loophole), a near across-the-board retail shutdown, and the closure of most industries, it sounds like false hope.

tom.brodbeck@freepress.mb.ca