The Group F conundrum

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This article was published 22/06/2021 (1882 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

What exactly is going on in Group F?

Last week, on Matchday One, EURO 2020 favourites France beat Germany 1-0 in Munich. Mats Hummels’ own goal proved the difference, but Les Bleus might have scored more and weren’t particularly bothered by Di Mannschaft’s territorial possession in the second half.

Earlier in the day, reigning champions Portugal had struggled mightily to break down a resilient Hungary side in Budapest before Raphael Guerreiro finally tallied in the 84th minute. Cristiano Ronaldo bagged a quick brace before the final whistle to bloat a scoreline that flattered the guests, who were rather found out on Matchday Two.

Germany largely dominated A Selecao at the weekend, no longer goal-shy and turning their territorial superiority into regular opportunities in a 4-2 triumph that reinvigorated their prospects in the Group of Death.

Attila Fiola, meanwhile, gave Hungary the lead against France, and while Antoine Griezmann equalized shortly after the hour-mark, this time The Magyars were able to hang on for a point.

And so it comes down to Matchday Three — Wednesday’s pair of encounters that will wrap up the group stage and finalize the bracket for the knockout rounds. All four teams have something to play for. No doubt the standings, which currently read (1) France, (2) Germany, (3) Portugal and (4) Hungary, will shift, and more than once, over the two hours.

France, with progression already secured, are set to make some lineup changes ahead of their EURO 2016 Final rematch with Portugal. Lucas Hernandez will likely replace Lucas Digne at left-back, with Jules Kounde coming in for Raphael Varane and Corentin Tolisso swapping out Adrien Rabiot.

World Cup winners in 2018, they will have expected more than a 1-1 draw with Hungary; after 180 minutes they’ve scored just a single goal from open play.

But their situation isn’t nearly as desperate as Portugal’s.

After finally battering down the fortifications at Puskas Arena, Ronaldo & Co. probably thought their play would only continue to improve against a Germany outfit so thoroughly blunted by France. But it was Germany who turned it up a notch, torturing the Portuguese flanks through the relentless running of wing-backs Joshua Kimmich and Robin Gosens.

Troublingly, Portugal manager Fernando Santos never did make the necessary tactical adjustments. He did, however, introduce Rafa Silva and Renato Sanches—the two finally putting the guests on the creative front-foot, as they did against Hungary.

If Santos has learned anything so far at these Euros, it’s that his best defense is ball control in the attacking third. Sanches must start against France in Budapest, and Joao Moutinho’s would be a useful introduction as well.

A point is all Portugal require, but topping the group would mean avoiding England in the round of 16. Of course, there will likely be some math to do before then.

A France victory will guarantee first place in the bracket, but a Germany-Hungary draw means Portugal finish third, relying on goal-difference to see them through as one of the top-four third-place finishers. A France-Portugal draw ensures at least another match for both, in which case Germany can top Group F with a win. Should Hungary prevail at Allianz-Arena, they’ll move on and Germany will hope France beat Portugal.

That last scenario is the most improbable.

Since the start of the second half against France, Germany have been the best attacking outfit at this European Championship, finally combining a relentless assault with a cutting edge in front of goal in their 4-2 dispatching of Portugal.

Manager Joachim Low named identical line-ups in the first two matches, and likely would have again, but injuries will force him into changes against Hungary.

Forward Thomas Muller has already been ruled out (knee) and will be replaced by Bayern Munich teammate Leon Goretzka. Hummels, too, has a knee problem and could make way for Niklas Sule. Ilkay Gundogan (calf) missed Monday training, which means Emre Can could be in line for a start.

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In any event, Germany will not deviate from a system that stresses the contributions of Kimmich and Gosens, which means Fiola and Loic Nego will get their exercise in Bavaria.

Hungary boss Marco Rossi likes to deploy a formation that is actually quite similar to Germany’s, but simply cancelling out the three-time European champions won’t do it for the two-time semi-finalists. They need to win. Nothing but the three points on offer will be enough for them to advance.

It’s not impossible. After all, this is a competition whose winners include Denmark and Greece.

And if something strange were to happen, you just feel it would happen here, in Group F.

jerradpeters@gmail.com Twitter @JerradPeters