England should be favoured

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This article was published 09/07/2021 (1832 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

EURO 2020 is England’s to win. No, don’t scoff. Italy have the look of champions and have seemed on a mission ever since they opened the tournament with a 3-0 mauling of Turkey in Rome. If there’s a favourite for Sunday’s final (2 p.m., TSN), it’s them.

But the entire event, played in 11 cities spanning the continent, from Seville to Baku, was always going to benefit England. No team was scheduled to travel less; no opponent stood to have the advantage of playing the entire group stage and three of four knockout matches at home.

But for a brief, weekend getaway in the Italian capital, where they faced Ukraine in a neutral-ground quarter-final, the Three Lions never had to leave the comforts of their base at St. George’s Park. Factor in the isolation requirements of COVID-19, and their edge was, and is, even more pronounced.

Cross-continental travel, already an impediment to the training, rest and consistency required to contend at a major competition, becomes even more of a burden when pandemic protocols are added to the process. England have had the luxury of largely avoiding these challenges, and in that their Euros have been different than everyone else’s.

It’s not exactly fair, and UEFA president Aleksander Ceferin has already admitted as much. The format, which saw Switzerland chalk up 15,485 km to England’s single 3,874 km round trip to Rome, won’t be repeated. And it’s worth pointing out that it was Michel Platini, and not Ceferin, who piloted it in the first place.

There was no coincidence about the fact that all four of the semi-finalists played their group stage matches in their home stadiums. And Italy’s 4,714 km logged is at least comparable to England’s, so there will be parity in that regard at Wembley.

Still, in many ways this has been even better than a hosted tournament for England, what with the rigamaroles endured by so many of the 24 teams. Even the officiating has been helpful. It was thanks to a dodgy penalty that they advanced to the final, and then, as Harry Kane prepared to take the spot-kick, Denmark goalkeeper Kasper Schmeichel was distracted by a laser pointed from the stands.

Not that any of this is the players’ fault. Yes, England have profited through Euro 2020’s built-in advantages, but they’ve still had to be good enough to get this far. And they are, quite evidently, very, very good.

Through 570 minutes they’ve yet to concede a goal from open play — Mikkel Damsgaard’s spectacular free-kick the only shot to have evaded goalkeeper Jordan Pickford thus far. And in front of Pickford, the back-line of Kyle Walker, John Stones, Harry Maguire and Luke Shaw has not only been impenetrable but has also contributed on the offensive side of the ball.

Maguire’s headed goal just after the restart against Ukraine effectively snuffed out any chance of a quarter-final upset, and Shaw’s three assists have him one back of the tournament lead.

Now, Italy’s front three of Federico Chiesa, Ciro Immobile and Lorenzo Insigne will stretch the England defense a lot more than it’s so far been accustomed, and an all-action midfield of Nicolo Barella, Jorginho and Marco Verratti will look to work the ball into their paths with regularity.

Until going up against Spain on Tuesday, Italy had gotten quite used to dominating possession. They proved, in that semi-final, that they can also cause problems on the counter-attack, but this is a group that prefers to have the ball at its feet, and they can expect to have a lot of it on Sunday.

England’s midfield duo of Declan Rice and Kalvin Phillips, meanwhile, has been able to dictate proceedings on each outing to date — even against Germany in the round of 16. But they’ll be outnumbered by the Azzurri, which means Mason Mount may be drawn into operating rather deeper than he’d like.

Up top, Kane will be flanked by Raheem Sterling and one of Bukayo Saka and Jadon Sancho — likely Saka. Sterling, whether dribbling at opponents or cutting inside to make a play or attempt a shot, has been one of the best players at these Euros — and certainly England’s best — and shouldn’t have too much trouble with full-back Giovanni Di Lorenzo. Ditto Saka v Emerson.

And Kane, with goals in all three knockout matches, is rounding into form at the perfect time.

No doubt Italy defenders Leonardo Bonucci and Giorgio Chiellini will relish their match-up against one of the world’s best strikers, but Kane’s tendency to drop deep — which he did to perfection in helping set up England’s first goal against Denmark — and the speed of Sterling and Saka will test the mobility of the veteran duo.

Then there is the partisan Wembley crowd, which should get just that much more out of an England team already operating at a higher level than at any time since the 1966 World Cup.

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It all makes for a dream scenario, and one England simply cannot throw away.

They may never have an opportunity like this one again.

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