Playing the lawn game Are campaign signs behind the times or are they still valuable stand-ins for candidates? By: Maggie Macintosh Posted: 10:00 AM CDT Friday, Sep. 29, 2023 Last Modified: 12:25 PM CDT Friday, Sep. 29, 2023 Updates

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This article was published 29/09/2023 (723 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Outside neighbouring bungalows on a quiet block in Kirkfield Park, two grinning men — one superimposed on orange, the other against a royal-blue backdrop — stare each other down.

Dmitriy Shishkin, who has only ever voted for the Progressive Conservatives, citing his “traditional family values,” was the first to put up a sign on his residential street.

The family next door then publicly declared their support for the NDP.

The front-yard faceoff — in this case, between NDP candidate Logan Oxenham and PC incumbent Kevin Klein — is one of many playing out across the province this fall.

Yardwork, alongside weather forecasts and home improvement projects, are typically fodder for neighbourly conversation. That’s not so ahead of Manitoba’s Oct. 3 election.

During an impromptu interview in his driveway, Shishkin, an immigration consultant and father of two adult children, described his neighbours as “very good, nice people.”

“All the time we are talking with the neighbours when we meet each other, but we are not talking about politics,” he added, followed by a chuckle on a late summer day.

For eons, political candidates have distributed lawn signs to get the word out about their platforms, and voters, be they party devotees or fans of a particular contender, have temporarily hosted them.

Campaign tactics have evolved so that parties now signal-boost messages via social media and collect elaborate voter information data sets, in addition to traditions like flyers filling mailboxes.

“All the time we are talking with the neighbours when we meet each other, but we are not talking about politics.”–Dmitriy Shishkin

Signs have remained a constant because they reflect “a personal testimony,” said political scientist Duane Bratt, who has counted hundreds of party placards in his quest to determine whether their presence can predict race outcomes.

The findings of Bratt’s research teams, who surveyed signs amid a series of 2014 byelections in Alberta and in the federal riding of Calgary Centre in 2015, suggest they can — although he has caveats.

“There are a lot of things you have to do properly to measure the signs and they have to be on private property. Too often, you just see ‘pollution’ of them on public land,” said the professor of Calgary-based Mount Royal University.

The Manitoba Liberal Party’s central campaign manager is in agreement signs are important tools to build a candidate’s profile, but he noted they do not necessarily translate to votes.

“Signs don’t vote,” Eric Stewart said. “Some lawns have three different candidates… and some people take signs just because they don’t want to say ‘no’ or want to participate in the process.”

In a bid to learn about the role placards are playing in the ongoing race, the Free Press knocked on dozens of doors belonging to voters in five critical riding races — Kirkfield Park, McPhillips, Southdale, St. Boniface and Selkirk — who had at least one sign set up on their property.

A universal theme emerged with many disclosing they felt compelled to weigh in with a lawn sign for the first time.

“I don’t normally put up signs and don’t usually make my political views known, but I think the NDP are the only people that have a chance of taking out the Conservatives,” said Kevin Lebrun, a 54-year-old business manager who lives in Lockport.

“I really don’t like what the Conservatives have done in the last seven years so I think it’s time for a change.”

Selkirk

Kevin Lebrun and Blake Cromie live about five kilometres apart in the rural municipality of St. Andrews. Both men describe themselves as private people. Both men also said they believe extraordinary times call for extraordinary measures.

Tory MLA Alan Lagimodiere is not seeking re-election in Selkirk, a provincial constituency that encompasses its namesake urban centre, as well as smaller communities including Lockport and Clandeboye.

The largely rural area was an NDP stronghold before Lagimodiere unseated cabinet minister Greg Dewar during the blue wave in 2016.

Now, teacher Mitch Obach is campaigning to take back the constituency for the left. The PCs have nominated small business president Richard Perchotte. There will be no Liberal, Green Party of Manitoba or independent candidate on the ballot.

• • Meet Your Candidates: Selkirk

Lebrun, a business manager, said he is deeply concerned about the Tories’ reorganization of health care and employee burnout in hospitals due to cuts across the sector.

“Five years ago I had a massive heart attack and almost passed away and the way things are now, I don’t know if I would’ve survived it. I mean, there was lots of staff and everything. I had one-on-one care with medical staff — you don’t get that anymore,” he said from his doorstep.

Although he considers himself a Liberal federally, Lebrun said it’s difficult to vote for a provincial party that hasn’t held power since the 1950s so he is pro-NDP in the 2023 race.

In contrast, Cromie is a lifelong Conservative.

The semi-retired homeowner said he recently stopped financially contributing to the PC party after being laid off, and instead, he agreed — “I felt guilty” — to host two signs to show his support.

“I’m not a big handout guy. I’m not an educated guy and I worked my ass off my whole life,” he said while taking a break from cleaning his boat in his driveway.

“Five years ago I had a massive heart attack and almost passed away and the way things are now, I don’t know if I would’ve survived it.”–Kevin Lebrun

As far as Cromie is concerned, Premier Heather Stefanson deserves another chance. He backs her promises to phase out the payroll tax, remove the provincial sales tax from restaurant meals and build new schools using a private-public partnership model.

Cromie added: “She’s pissed off the unions and I’m OK with that.”

Neither Cromie nor Lebrun knew much about their local candidates. Instead, they were focused on big-picture issues and parties’ overall reputations.

Lawn signs can reduce candidates to “avatars of a party,” said Alex Marland, a professor who researches election campaigning at Acadia University in Wolfville, N.S.

“She’s pissed off the unions and I’m OK with that.”–Blake Cromie

When reached by phone in Halifax, Marland said there is often a missed opportunity to discuss public policy through the advertising medium because candidates typically only distribute placards with their face, name and party colour on display.

While some political organizers might view it as risky, the political scientist said it is far more interesting when candidates include a few words to share their support or opposition to a specific cause.

Despite their shortcomings, including growing environmental concerns about how wasteful they are, signs are incredibly useful to showcase a candidate’s momentum and generate overall awareness about an upcoming election, he said.

“It would be terrible if (parties) didn’t do it, and I think turnout would plummet.”

 

St. Boniface

On one grassy front yard in the heart of St. Boniface, red is the new blue.

Ryan Sokoloski, 37, typically posts a PC sign. Sokoloski has voted for the Tories ever since he turned 18. This time around, the financial analyst is proudly advertising the leader of the Manitoba Liberals.

“I just think Dougald (Lamont)’s the best man for the job. He sounds the most intelligent in debates,” Sokoloski said, noting he is tired of “the back-and-forth” between the PCs and the NDP.

The Tory’s current leader cannot be taken seriously after it was revealed Stefanson failed to disclose the sale of more than $31 million in property, he said. “I can’t forget about $30, never mind $30 million. That’s just a lie. A straight-up lie, and it’s insulting to everybody.”

“I just think Dougald (Lamont)’s the best man for the job. He sounds the most intelligent in debates.”–Ryan Sokoloski

Another factor that influenced his decision was Lamont’s status as a party leader who would yield more decision-making power than an average MLA.

Lamont, a bilingual writer and policy analyst, has been at the helm of the Manitoba Liberals for six years.

He won the seat in a 2018 byelection to replace defeated NDP premier Greg Selinger after he resigned. The win brought the party’s MLA tally to four, in turn securing its official status in the Manitoba legislature. The celebratory period was brief; only three Liberal MLAs were elected in the last provincial election.

The NDP is backing francophone teacher Robert Loiselle in the riding. University student Kiratveer “Kirt” Hayer is the area’s PC candidate.

• • Meet Your Candidates: St. Boniface

Thérèse Dubé said she agreed to publicly endorse Loiselle, a former colleague of hers at École Précieux-Sang, because of his calm nature, empathetic tendencies and intimate understanding of what is going on in public education.

“We ran out of paper. We ran out of jugs of glue. We didn’t have enough modelling clay or paint, and they couldn’t order any more because our budgets were frozen. Those are just basic (school supplies),” said Dubé, a newly-retired educational assistant.

The Franco-Manitoban said she has been taken aback by the premier’s “closed-minded” approach to discussions about searching a local landfill for the remains of murdered Indigenous women.

“There’s long wait times and their department has lost a couple of people who’ve gone to the U.S.”–Tyler Butterfield

Down the street, which is lined with orange lawn signs, Tyler Butterfield said one of the major reasons he and his partner, a doctor, are voting NDP is because they are unhappy with the status quo in the health-care sector.

“There’s long wait times and their department has lost a couple of people who’ve gone to the U.S. — just because it’s less hectic and they can do more research (without jumping through so many hoops) down there,” said Butterfield, 31.

The construction worker has voted for the Communist Party of Canada in previous provincial races, but he said he is disregarding the fringe party in 2023 because of their late showing in St. Boniface.

 

McPhillips

JD Devgan, a rookie candidate, recalled being startled this month when a stranger slammed on his brakes in the middle of a residential street to call out to him.

Upon quickly confirming Devgan was, in fact, the man whose photo was on orange signs across the neighbourhood, the driver yelled out his address.

“I’m always happy that someone is willing to have my face on their lawn,” he said, noting it took a while to get used to seeing his profile photo on strangers’ properties.

Devgan took a leave from the University of Manitoba, where he is director of government and community relations, to mount an NDP campaign in north Winnipeg.

He is up against PC nominee Sheilah Restall, a mother and business consultant who has founded volunteer initiatives including the Great Winnipeg Bear Hunt, Little Gardeners Club and Poppy Blanket. Real estate agent Umar Hayat is running for the Liberals.

Since it was drawn up for the last election, McPhillips — which includes up-and-coming developments by the Perimeter Highway — has a brief history. Shannon Martin, previously a rural representative for the PCs, was the first MLA to serve the constituency. He is not seeking re-election.

• • Meet Your Candidates: McPhillips

Despite what passersby might assume based on the blue signage outside her family’s suburban home, Melanie Dela Peret remains undecided about her ballot.

Dela Peret, who is originally from the Philippines, was working a night shift when a campaigner rang her doorbell while canvassing the Aurora at North Pointe development. The health-care aide’s husband, a permanent resident who cannot vote, accepted the sign because he has a kind heart, she said.

The chronic shortage of health-care staff is top of mind for the young mother as she considers her options and the countless campaign promises that have been made in recent weeks. “The workload is too much and most of our nurses are burned out.”

“They’re trying to advertise themselves. We don’t have a problem with that because at the end of the day, it’s fair game (on our lawn).”–Gagan Suri

Daljit Sandhu, a stay-at-home mother, put up an NDP sign after Devgan stopped by her house in Leila North.

“We support the nice guy who will support the community,” said Sandhu, who wants her future MLA to work with city officials and advocate for a local park and library. “Mostly, when we vote, we support Punjabi.”

In nearby Templeton-Sinclair, Gagan Suri said his household is happy to host signs of all sorts.

“They’re trying to advertise themselves. We don’t have a problem with that because at the end of the day, it’s fair game (on our lawn),” said the 19-year-old student.

Given he frequently commutes to the University of Manitoba, Suri said he wants to elect a candidate who will prioritize spending on improving roads across the city.

 

Southdale

The PC campaign manager in charge of Audrey Gordon’s re-election bid calls himself “a big believer in signs.”

“(Their effectiveness) is a debate amongst political organizers,” said Daniel Gray, a political strategist and consultant working for the Tories. “Personally, I just love driving around an area and seeing the support.”

That won’t surprise anyone who’s driven down Elizabeth Road, a thoroughfare in Windsor Park, as of late. There are three enormous blue banners within three blocks, and each one has a three-foot tall headshot of Gordon flashing a toothy smile.

The human brain is wired to process faces before text — the evolutionary result of species needing to quickly decipher enemies from friends for survival, said Lam An, an assistant professor of marketing at the University of Winnipeg.

The expert in nonverbal communication strategies said it takes under a second for a voter to make a decision about a candidate’s likeability based on a photo.

“Faces help candidates and brands build social connections with voters or consumers,” said An, adding it’s become rare for commercials to do without a personal endorsement or celebrity cameo for that very reason.

Kirk Shakelford has one of the massive signs of Gordon on his corner lot, as well as two smaller placards. The scene is a stark contrast from the last election during which the truck driver’s lawn was bare and he did not vote.

The 55-year-old father said he is a big fan of the direction the Tories are heading in federally, and provincially, he supports enhanced parental rights in public schools.

“I want my daughter to grow up and learn the proper way. I don’t want her to be (LGBTTQ+) but if she is, I’ll accept it. If she’s not, I don’t want it being pushed on her in school,” he said.

The Manitoba NDP have come to count on Ruth and Arnold Graham putting up an orange sign in their cul-de-sac in Southdale proper.

“(Their effectiveness) is a debate amongst political organizers. Personally, I just love driving around an area and seeing the support.”–Daniel Gray

The retirees are currently hosting a headshot of Renée Cable. Cable, a mother based in Windsor Park, has worked in various government, management and human resources roles throughout her career.

Robert-Falcon Ouellette, a university instructor and former member of Parliament who most recently ran for mayor last year, is the Liberal candidate. Physician Amarjit Singh is an independent nominee.

• • Meet Your Candidates: Southdale

Ruth described witnessing overwhelmed nurses and nurse aides crying during recent visits to her elderly mother’s assisted-living residence.

The retired teacher said she blames cuts dating back 25 years, when the Filmon government was slashing physician training seats despite the reality baby boomers were nearing retirement age.

As far as her neighbour is concerned, the medical system is broken largely because there is no personal accountability for patients and many would rather take a drug than make meaningful lifestyle changes to better their personal health.

“Faces help candidates and brands build social connections with voters or consumers.”–Lam An

The surging popularity of Ozempic — a diabetic medicine being widely used for weight loss — is a perfect example, said Jeff Gobert, who gave up on his paramedicine career and became a fishing guide following the height of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“What happened over COVID really put a horrible taste in my mouth,” Gobert said, noting all governments allowed him to be unfairly treated like a criminal for refusing to get vaccinated or wear a mask.

The 40-year-old said he wishes the Manitoba PC leader was more like Alberta’s Danielle Smith, but Stefanson is “the lesser of all the evils right now.”

Gobert added he has been tempted to deface his roommate’s Liberal lawn sign. “I want to take out a Sharpie and write: ‘This party, federally, ruined our country,’ because that’s what I believe.”

 

Kirkfield Park

The Gehmans held a family meeting last fall to discuss whether they were comfortable displaying political signage on their property in an increasingly polarized country that is being heavily influenced by Trumpism and news media coverage in the U.S.

Theresa Gehman, 22, recalled debating whether it was worth publicly endorsing the NDP during a heated byelection and as a result, opening themselves up to violence — be it in the form of a smashed car window, graffiti painted on their fence or otherwise.

The Westwood household ultimately agreed to politicize their yard for the first time. And they have done so once again, displaying placards for both NDP candidate Logan Oxenham and Disability Matters Vote.

“By putting that sign out, we’re saying: ‘We’re supporting someone who is helping people,’” said Gehman, a student at the University of Winnipeg who works part-time for a community development organization.

“It’s like putting the Pride flag up. It’s showing that we’re a safe space for those in need and we are willing to put in the work and effort to support (underrepresented groups).”

The residents of Kirkfield Park are headed back to the provincial polls for the second time in less than a year and the ballots for the highly-anticipated rematch mirror those from 2022.

Klein, the incumbent, won 161 more votes than Oxenham, a juvenile correctional officer and counsellor at the Manitoba Youth Centre, to secure the seat.

Registered nurse Rhonda Nichol, who placed third, is once again running for the Liberals. The Greens have put up Denis Bayomi, a retired information technology professional.

• • Meet Your Candidates: Kirkfield Park

Booth neighbourhood resident Dmitriy Shishkin said he’s voting in the hopes of a rerun.

“We are in doubt of any politician in Canada, but at least we hope that PC will protect some traditional values in our society,” he said.

“We are in doubt of any politician in Canada, but at least we hope that PC will protect some traditional values in our society.”–Dmitriy Shishkin

For Shishkin, who was born and raised in Belarus, those values include family and religious freedom.

Funding for public services is a priority for Iona Patterson, a voter based in Silver Heights.

“I’ve never been honestly a fan of PC (ideology). They’re more of that whole ‘profit before people’ kind of thing and that’s why most of us are struggling right now, as far as I’m concerned,” said Patterson, who works remotely as a customer service representative.

Patterson is a self-described NDP “diehard,” but does not always make that clear to her neighbours by staking a sign in the ground.

“They just happened to catch me when I was home this time.”

 

maggie.macintosh@freepress.mb.ca