Poll data projects NDP majority

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This article was published 02/10/2023 (758 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

THE latest Manitoba election poll shows an NDP surge in voter support, with an aggregator of such polls projecting the New Democrats are poised to form a majority government.

The Main Street Research poll (conducted Sept. 28-Oct. 1) shows the NDP rising provincially, well ahead of the incumbent Progressive Conservatives and other major political parties.

Its numbers:

• NDP: 47 per cent (up from 36 per cent in Main Street Research’s July polling);
• PCs: 41 per cent (down from 42 per cent);
• Liberals: 10 per cent (down from 12 per cent);
• Green party: one per cent (down from three per cent).

On Monday, a statistical model of electoral projections based on opinion polls, electoral history and demographic data by 338Canada projected 32 seats for the NDP, 23 for the PCs and two for the Liberals.

The projections show most Winnipeg-area PC incumbents losing their seats.

It also includes ranges from worst to best possible outcomes for the three main parties: from 29 to 36 seats for the NDP; from 18 to 26 seats for the PCs; and from zero to three seats for the Liberals.

The projections are a forecast of the most likely results if a general election were held on that day, according to the independently owned media website about politics, polling and electoral projections.

It was created and managed by P.J. Fournier, who teaches physics and astrophysics at Saint-Laurent College, a post-secondary institution in Montreal.

The projection is calculated using a weighted average of polls by the 338Canada model to estimate current party support. It is not a poll, but the result of an aggregation of polls and “modelization” of various data, its website says.

Such polling and projections aren’t likely to impact voting on election day, said University of Manitoba adjunct political studies professor Christopher Adams, who has studied political polling in Canada.

“All the polls in the past couple of weeks that came out showed the NDP ahead in Winnipeg, and that’s where the real battle is — over the 31 seats in Winnipeg,” Adams said Monday night.

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Carol Sanders
Legislature reporter

Carol Sanders is a reporter at the Free Press legislature bureau. The former general assignment reporter and copy editor joined the paper in 1997. Read more about Carol.

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