Money doesn’t always buy electoral success

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This article was published 05/03/2024 (568 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The 2023 provincial election saw some big-spending winners and losers, with one candidate raking in more than $100,000 in contributions and others succeeding with zero donations, Elections Manitoba disclosures show.

Wab Kinew, Logan Oxenham and Glen Simard of the NDP each won their seats while reporting zero political contributions from donors.

The NDP does not allow candidates to receive donations directly, explained Bill Reid, the official agent for Bill Moroz’s campaign. A donor gives money to a candidate via the provincial party, he said in an email. Seventy per cent of the donation goes to the candidate.

“The 70 per cent is transferred to the candidate from the party. So, in reality, money that is transferred to the candidate is in fact political donations from donors,” Reid said.

PC MLA Obby Khan, meanwhile, reported $118,640 in donor contributions — nearly five times as much as the $26,745 former Tory party leader Heather Stefanson collected.

Election campaign financial statements for candidates and parties were due within four months after the Oct. 3 provincial election. Most of the candidates have filed disclosures with Elections Manitoba, while a few dozen have received extensions. All the registered parties have been granted extensions until later this month.

The unsuccessful re-election campaigns of former PC cabinet ministers Audrey Gordon, Rochelle Squires and Kevin Klein all received — and spent — big bucks.

Gordon received $76,768 in contributions from donors and $7,000 from her Southdale constituency association. She spent $83,260 on expenses — including $20,160 on market research and polling. The former health minister was defeated by NDP MLA Renée Cable, whose expenses totalled $49,545. Cable reported no contributions from donors, $24,092 from her constituency association and $33,108 from her party.

In Riel, Squires received $38,895 from donors and $15,000 from the PC party. The former families minister reported $58,884 in expenses, including more than $10,000 for advertising and posters and $8,521 for polling and market research. Squires was defeated by the NDP MLA Mike Moyes, who received an extension on disclosing his campaign finances.

In Kirkfield Park, Klein received $41,060 in contributions and spent $79,264 on expenses, including more than $30,000 on ads and posters. The former environment minister was defeated by Oxenham, who disclosed $0 in contributions and just over $25,000 in transfers from his party. His expenses totalled $26,103 — a third of Klein’s spending.

Former Liberal party leader Dougald Lamont spent $15,338 — less than half of what NDP opponent Robert Loiselle reported spending ($34,865). Dr. Jon Gerrard — the longtime Liberal MLA for River Heights — also went down to defeat after spending $18,952. Winning NDP MLA Mike Moroz reported spending $47,938.

“Money matters in electoral politics, but more money than your political opponents does not necessarily guarantee success for either parties or for individual candidates,” said Paul Thomas, University of Manitoba political studies professor emeritus. The eventual outcome is affected by party momentum — whether it is moving toward victory or is on the decline, he said.

Spending levels by candidates will depend on multiple factors, such as the competitiveness of the constituency, the financial support provided by party headquarters, the profile of the candidate and their connections with organizations and groups likely to donate campaign funds, Thomas said. While there are statutory limits on financial contributions and campaign expenses, it doesn’t entirely level the playing field in terms of election spending, Thomas said.

“Mr. Khan is a well-connected businessman running in a relatively affluent constituency which had a number of competitive elections in quick succession, so he probably had a strong fundraising apparatus.”

One of the most important factors related to a candidate’s success is first-hand contact with voters through door knocking and telephone contacts, including to get out the vote, Thomas said, pointing to empirical studies. Entering the campaign, the PCs were on the defensive and had lost members and money after the 2021 Tory leadership contest — and court fight that followed — when Stefanson’s rival Shelly Glover challenged the election process, citing “irregularities.”

Political columnist and former PC party insider Deveryn Ross said the Tories lost the election because of a lack of credibility.

“The problem here isn’t the lack of money because the Tories had plenty of money to run a credible campaign,” said Ross. “The problem is they didn’t run a credible campaign.”

The PCs were criticized for being out of touch with voters in Winnipeg where they needed to win seats, and for campaigning on their opposition to search the Prairie Green Landfill for the remains of two Indigenous women police believe are buried there.

“You need to have a strategy that resonates with voters in key ridings and they didn’t do that,” Ross said. “They blew it.”

He said the Liberals, on the other hand, didn’t do enough.

“It was obvious throughout the term that the Liberals were not as active as they needed to be, not just in terms of fundraising, but in terms of profile,” said Ross. “Dougald (Lamont) as leader wasn’t as active as he needed to be.”

carol.sanders@freepress.mb.ca