NHL offer sheets rarely amount to much

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 13/08/2024 (501 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The reason offer sheets create such a ruckus is because they rarely work out.

That didn’t prevent the hockey world from going berserk, especially on social media, after the St. Louis Blues announced Tuesday morning they had tendered offer sheets to a pair of Edmonton Oilers restricted free agents, defenceman Philip Broberg and forward Dylan Holloway.

No matter what happens over the next seven days — which is the period of time the Oilers have to match the offers or accept the compensation set out in the collective bargaining agreement — Blues general manager Doug Armstrong has shown the hockey world that he’s not afraid to make a bold and calculated move to try to improve his team.

In a world in which looking to exhaust all options is commonplace, it’s been a surprise tendering offer sheets isn’t something more GMs try to weaponize.

In this case, the Blues recognize the Oilers were already in an uncomfortable position as it pertains to the salary cap — with Puck Pedia currently projecting them more than US$7.225 million over the ceiling, provided Edmonton chooses to match.

The fellow first-rounders (Broberg, eighth overall in 2019) and Holloway (14th overall in 2020) had to agree to the terms with the Blues, which essentially forced the hand of the Oilers to make a decision on their respective futures.

Broberg or Holloway are currently complementary players with the potential to grow into more impactful roles. They’re also the type of players teams such as the Oilers rely on to remain competitive.

Although both are beyond their entry-level contracts, they have spent ample time at the American Hockey League level and were more likely to cash in on the deal after this one.

Instead, the Blues are putting the Oilers in an onerous position.

By offering Broberg two years at US$4.58 million, he would be receiving a significant raise but not an outrageous one for someone who is probably ready to play consistent top-four minutes.

As for Holloway, the two years at US$2.29 million is a reasonable cap hit given where he’s at in his development.

For a team already over the ceiling, however, keeping both players in the fold will be a challenge for the Oilers, who made several savvy moves to keep other forwards in free agency.

Given the hip issue Evander Kane was dealing with at the end of last season, a shift to long term injured reserve could provide some temporary relief, though the Oilers still need to clear space if they want to try and fit both players into the budget.

The Oilers bigger issue is moving forward, as Leon Draisaitl enters the final year of his contract and is looking for a massive raise that could be in the US$13.5-million range and captain Connor McDavid is due a bump in two years from the US$13.5-million he currently makes.

That’s where the strategic element of the offer sheets becomes even more magnified.

So why not just match the offers and trade Broberg and Holloway?

That’s not an option under the rules, which prohibits potential moves for one year.

Why does it make sense for the Blues?

Well, they’re a team in transition looking to add talent and if successful, this would allow them to improve immediately — while only forfeiting a second round pick for Broberg and a third-rounder for Holloway.

Broberg is 6-4 and 211 pounds and while he’s not overly physical, he’s a capable puck-mover with ample offensive potential.

Holloway is a speedster who should eventually blossom into a middle-six forward who should regularly eclipse 20 goals.

For an Oilers team that just made it to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup final, keeping Broberg and Holloway in the fold is a priority but they don’t have a lot of wiggle room to make that happen.

It’s important to remember the only two successful offer sheets in the cap era were the five-year deal at US$4.34-million the Oilers offered to Winkler product Dustin Penner when he was with the Anaheim Ducks and the one-year deal worth US$6.1 million the Carolina Hurricanes offered forward Jesperi Kotkaniemi when he was with the Montreal Canadiens.

Penner was a productive player for most of his four seasons with the Oilers before joining the Los Angeles Kings in 2011, capturing his second Stanley Cup in 2012.

Kotkaniemi hasn’t yet emerged as the player the Hurricanes had hoped for after signing an eight-year extension with a cap hit of US$4.28-million but he’s still 24 years old.

So what does all of this have to do with the Winnipeg Jets?

Other than the Blues being a Central Division rival and the Oilers being the team all Western Conference clubs will be looking to knock off its proverbial pedestal, not a lot.

Though it is worth noting once one offer sheet gets made, there’s an insatiable craving for most members of the media to predict a plethora of other offer sheets could be on the horizon.

The only potential target on the Jets in this criteria is restricted free agent Cole Perfetti.

With $5.8-million of projected cap space available to them right now, the Jets are in a much better position to match any offer that comes his way — whether it be a bridge deal like the ones offered to Broberg and Holloway or a longer-range pact with an AAV that could come in north of $5.6 million.

There’s no doubt the Jets are aware of the possibility, but they wouldn’t need to perform any major surgery to the roster in order to make room to retain Perfetti.

Besides, the Jets view him as a core piece and the two sides will continue to work at a deal that doesn’t likely include the public drama of an offer sheet.

ken.wiebe@freepress.mb.ca

X: @WiebesWorld