Jets-Stars showdown a battle for Central Division supremacy

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This article was published 13/03/2025 (190 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Scott Arniel didn’t hesitate when asked how much a win over the Dallas Stars on Friday night at Canada Life Centre would mean to his Winnipeg Jets.

“It’s just two more (points) up on them,” the head coach smirked. “That’s the math.”

True enough, but don’t let Arniel’s literal explanation of the NHL rules fool you: this stands to be no ordinary affair between a pair of bitter division rivals, one that could be worth a lot more in the long run.

“No, it’s an important game,” Arniel would later concede. “When you have teams behind you, you want to make sure you try to keep them there.”

The Jets currently occupy top spot in the Western Conference standings with 94 points and 16 regular-season games remaining. They are in pursuit of their first division title — in either the 1.0 or 2.0 era — and the No. 1 seed which would mean home-ice advantage for at least the first three rounds of the playoffs.

The second-place Stars would appear to be the only club with a realistic shot at overtaking them, given they have 86 points with 18 games remaining. That includes two head-to-heads with Winnipeg, with the final one coming April 10 in Dallas.

Winning the Central would mean facing the second wild-card team — likely either Vancouver, Calgary, St. Louis or Utah — in the opening round. Meanwhile, the reward for the runner-up looks to be going to battle with a dangerous Colorado team, which loaded up at the trade deadline by adding centres Brock Nelson (who the Jets desperately tried to land) and Charlie Coyle.

There’s no such thing as an easy path in the playoffs, but one avenue sure looks a lot less risky than the other.

According to the MoneyPuck website, a regulation victory by the Jets over the Stars on Friday night would give them a 90.1 per cent chance of winning the Central. A regulation loss drops those odds to 70.5 per cent.

“It’s a situation that we’ve talked about right from training camp, the importance of being the best in the Central Division,” said Arniel. “We haven’t seen them in quite a while, they’ve made some changes and I’m really looking forward to it.”

We already know Dallas won’t be at 100 per cent. Top defenceman Miro Heiskanen and veteran centre Tyler Seguin were already sidelined with long-term injuries, and now top centre Roope Hintz has joined them on the sidelines after suffering a facial injury earlier in the week.

However, the club did add power forward Mikko Rantanen in a blockbuster deadline deal last week which sent Logan Stankoven the other way. Rantanen, who is skating on the top line with Wyatt Johnston and Jamie Benn, has two goals and an assist in his first two games with Dallas. Forward Mikael Granlund and defenceman Cody Ceci were added earlier in the year from San Jose.

“Obviously, we know where Dallas is and we know the separation. We have them two (more) times and you want to take care of the games that you can to try to put as much distance as you can between the two teams,” said Jets captain Adam Lowry.

“We know they’re playing exceptional hockey, they’ve made big additions, and they’ve got some key guys out. Hopefully we’re sharp and ready because mistakes against a team like Dallas, where they don’t give up a whole lot but they’re also very dangerous off the rush, very dangerous in-zone, the difference in the game could be one or two mistakes.”

It’s possible the Jets could also be missing a key weapon or two. Forward Nikolaj Ehlers and defenceman Neal Pionk were both absent from practice for a second day in a row as they deal with undisclosed ailments. Arniel wouldn’t say if either or both will be in the lineup against Dallas.

“Make sure you come to morning skate,” he said.

Dallas is near the end of an unusual road trip during which they played last Saturday in Edmonton (losing 5-4) and Sunday in Vancouver (winning 4-1), then had the entire week off before resuming things in Winnipeg and then finishing up Sunday in Denver against the Avalanche.

The Jets are coming off a hard-fought 2-1 victory over the New York Rangers on Tuesday night in a game in which they weren’t at their sharpest as they played for a fifth time in eight days.

The Jets beat the Stars on Nov. 9 in Winnipeg, while Dallas took the rematch on Dec. 1 by a 3-1 score deep in the heart of Texas.

“They got the best of us last time in their building, so we need to make sure that we’re good here,” said Arniel.

This will be the sixth time the Jets have faced Rantanen this year, and the fourth time in Winnipeg. They saw him four times when he was with Colorado and once after he got shipped to Carolina for Martin Necas.

“He might be getting sick of coming to Winnipeg,” Lowry joked.

“It’s a unique situation but we’re really familiar with his game. Premier power forward, elite vision, great goal-scoring touch, and unbelievable at protecting the puck down low. He adds another element to an already deep team up front. He’s just one of many key guys on their team that we’re going to have to focus on, try and make it a long night for them.”

Winnipeg didn’t make the same trade deadline splash as Dallas or Colorado but did add a pair of players who have made immediate impacts in forward Brandon Tanev and defenceman Luke Schenn.

“The most important thing we can do is focus on building our game, getting better every day so that when we come up against these teams, we’re ready,” said Lowry.

“We can stay in the battle and we feel like we can beat those teams. It’s just about getting better every day so, come playoff time, you’re prepared regardless of if you made a big move or not. I think we’re real content with the team we have. We have a strong belief in this group and that we can get the job done.”

mike.mcintyre@freepress.mb.ca

X and Bluesky: @mikemcintyrewpg