Last New Democrat in Manitoba blames Trump for party’s collapse

The NDP stumbled to its worst result in Manitoba in 32 years — losing two strongholds and narrowly retaining its only other seat — as Liberal and Conservative candidates benefited from the party’s collapse in Monday’s federal election.

Leah Gazan, re-elected in Winnipeg Centre, will be the NDP’s only Manitoba MP after incumbents Leila Dance (Elmwood-Transcona) and Niki Ashton (Churchill-Keewatinook Aski) were upset by Tory and Liberal candidates, respectively.

“We lost a lot of good people here in Manitoba,” Gazan said Tuesday, when the New Democrats were projected to hold seven of Canada’s 343 seats, down from 24 when the election was called March 23.

Support for the NDP plummeted to single percentage points in some Manitoba ridings.

The last time the party won only one Manitoba seat was the 1993 election amid a Liberal landslide. The NDP then won four of Manitoba’s 14 seats in 1997.

It will need to undergo an overhaul after placing fourth behind the projected Liberal minority government, the Tories and the Bloc Québécois.

Gazan did not indicate if there is a potential candidate she supports to replace Jagmeet Singh as leader. She believes the U.S. political situation, including President Donald Trump’s tariffs and annexation threats, swayed voters away from her party.

“I think what’s going on down south impacted the other two NDP seats,” she said, referring to the strongholds that were lost. “It impacted my riding.”

Three seats changed hands in Manitoba. The Conservatives won seven, gaining Elmwood-Transcona but losing Winnipeg West, where incumbent Marty Morantz was defeated by Liberal Doug Eyolfson. The Liberals won six seats, a gain of two.

Before the campaign, the Tories had seven seats, the Liberals had four and the NDP had three.

The federal standing is in contrast to provincial politics, in which the NDP has a majority government.

“The NDP didn’t lose seats mainly to the Liberals. The NDP lost seats to the very party that many people were trying to keep out.”–Leah Gazan

Before the election, some observers thought an NDP collapse would help the Liberals the most. The Tories benefited as well.

“What strategic voting resulted in is 12 extra Conservative seats,” Gazan said, referring to the national total. “The NDP didn’t lose seats mainly to the Liberals. The NDP lost seats to the very party that many people were trying to keep out.”

The New Democrats had 11 per cent of the popular vote in Manitoba — down from 23 per cent in the 2021 election — with some polls left to report preliminary results. Tory (46.3 per cent) and Liberal (40.8 per cent) support climbed.

Gazan edged Liberal Rahul Walia by 4.2 percentage points in Winnipeg Centre. Her vote share fell by almost 11 percentage points compared with 2021.

She attributed her win to a “solid” ground game and her work with community organizations in two earlier terms.

“I think the community chose to vote for and re-elect somebody that they knew, and somebody, I’ve heard at the door, that they trust to have their back,” she said.

Liberal support surged in Elmwood-Transcona, where the NDP’s Dance lost to Tory candidate Colin Reynolds by 7.1 percentage points in a rematch of a September byelection, which she won by 4.2 percentage points to become a first-time MP.

Liberal candidate Ian MacIntyre scored 22.4 per cent of Monday’s vote, up from 4.8 per cent in the byelection.

“By the Liberal number going up and my number coming down, I think that’s where it is,” Dance said. “I think if we had been strategically voting in the riding, people would have strategically voted towards the NDP because the NDP has historically held the seat here, if it was ‘anybody but Conservatives.’”

Reynolds did not respond to a request for comment, mirroring his strategy throughout the campaign and last year’s byelection.

Dance felt positive about her campaign. She said it was “extremely draining” to compete in two elections in less than a year.

After taking time off, she expects to return to work in the non-profit sector.

“I’m grateful for the opportunity that I had, even though it was a short time,” she said.

Conservative incumbent Raquel Dancho, re-elected in Kildonan-St. Paul, said it’s “early days” for a vote analysis, but her door-knocking suggested she had “overwhelming” support from tradespeople and young families.

“I would say, anecdotally, it certainly looks like some of the demographic that has voted NDP in the past, or would be expected to vote NDP, came our way,” she said.

Dancho had 47.5 per cent of the riding’s vote, up almost six percentage points from 2021. She defeated Liberal candidate Thomas Naaykens by less than three percentage points and New Democrat Emily Clark by 40 points, as NDP support plummeted in the riding.

Elmwood-Transcona was a “big upset” that poll aggregators did not predict, Dancho said.

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“That may be an indication that, certainly, there’s been a massive demographic shift between parties, and that the Conservative party is, in fact, representing many working Canadians, and it’s great to see,” Dancho said.

Liberal candidate Rebecca Chartrand had a 15.9-point lead over Ashton, the MP for Churchill-Keewatinook Aski since 2008, with most polls reporting. Ashton defeated Chartrand by three percentage points in 2015.

Chartrand said voters wanted change.

“People in the north have felt forgotten in some regards,” she said. “What I consistently heard is this riding needs to be a huge part of the strategy as we start to re-envision what Canada looks like economically.”

Ginette Lavack, who kept St. Boniface-St. Vital for the Liberals, will be another new face in Ottawa, taking over from Dan Vandal, who did not seek re-election.

“I’m very excited to get to work,” she said.

Lavack received almost 60 per cent of the riding’s vote, up from Vandal’s share of 43.8 per cent in 2021.

“It doesn’t surprise me the numbers overall would be up by comparison to 2021 because (Monday’s) turnout was significantly higher,” she said.

Liberal incumbents were relieved after opinion polls a few months ago suggested the Tories were set for a big win in the next election.

The Grits’ comeback was triggered by a leadership change — swapping prime minister Justin Trudeau for Mark Carney — and Trump’s rhetoric.

One should never give up hope in politics, said Kevin Lamoureux, who was re-elected in Winnipeg North, the riding he has held since 2010.

“We’ve won more seats than we had in the previous Parliament,” he said. “People recognized Mark Carney as the best person to be able to deal with Canada’s economy and Donald Trump.”

Lamoureux believes a lot of the “progressive vote,” including the NDP vote, unified behind the Liberals.

The NDP could be relied upon again to prop up a Liberal minority government, as it did under Trudeau.

“I’m hoping the NDP will see the merit of working closely with the government, but also I think it’s important that we work with members of all political parties who are prepared to put Canada first,” Lamoureux said.

Dancho had nothing but praise for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, who lost his Ottawa-area seat while guiding the party to its highest projected vote share since 1988. She declined to say if she thinks he should stay on as leader.

“Pierre Poilievre is the hardest-working person I’ve ever met in my life. He inspired millions of people with a message of hope and change,” she said.

Holding the Liberals to a minority and gaining seats were positive outcomes for the Conservatives, she said.

University of Winnipeg political science Prof. Malcolm Bird said eventual riding-by-riding analyses will help determine where NDP support went.

“I think more of it went to Mr. Poilievre than people think,” he said.

Bird said it’s not the end of the NDP, but it’s time for the party to rethink its tactics and behaviour.

“I do think that this is an inflection point or milestone or something where they need to consider what they’re doing, who they are and who is their leader,” he said.

chris.kitching@freepress.mb.ca

Chris Kitching
Reporter

Chris Kitching is a general assignment reporter at the Free Press. He began his newspaper career in 2001, with stops in Winnipeg, Toronto and London, England, along the way. After returning to Winnipeg, he joined the Free Press in 2021, and now covers a little bit of everything for the newspaper. Read more about Chris.

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