U of M political scientist predicts scrappy fall legislative session

The gloves will be off when members of the legislative assembly return to the chamber today for the fall sitting.

Manitoba faces economic threats from U.S. President Donald Trump and climate impacts from deadly wildfires, but don’t expect any display of unity in the face of adversity, one political expert advised.

“I think we’ll see the two leaders really going at it and I don’t think it’ll be very pleasant,” University of Manitoba political studies professor Christopher Adams said.

Premier Wab Kinew and Progressive Conservative Leader Obby Khan have verbally attacked each other repeatedly during question period. Outside the chamber in 2023, there was an alleged physical altercation when the pair shook hands at a Turban Day event in the rotunda.

Now, with the NDP halfway into its mandate, Adams expects the rhetoric to get more testy and heated. The PCs will call out the government over the province’s finances and concerns about crime.

“Everything is substantially worse under this premier,” Khan said in an interview Friday.

“The premier had promised to fix health care. The premier promised to crack down on crime in 100 days. The premier had promised the economic horse is going to pull the social cart, and we can clearly see that he has starved and killed the economic horse.”

Manitoba reported a $1.1-billion deficit for the 2024-2025 fiscal year, $353 million higher than the government planned.

Khan said the province promised to balance the budget by the end of its first term in office, but has shown no sign it’s capable of doing that.

He blamed the premier for not doing more to support provincial justice officials and Crown attorneys to prevent violent, repeat offenders from being released on bail. Khan said he travelled across the province in the summer and heard Manitobans express concerns about crime, health care and affordability.

“Grocery bills have skyrocketed,” he said.

On a more positive note, Khan said he looks forward to welcoming a new MLA to the PC side of the chamber.

Colleen Robbins narrowly won the Spruce Woods byelection, hanging on to a Tory seat. She will enter the chamber as a member for the first time Wednesday.

“I’m very excited to welcome our newest member to the team,” he said. “She’s really nice.”

Adams said the PCs will target government house leader Nahanni Fontaine in question period after two major gaffes that garnered repeated headlines.

The Tories called for her to be removed from cabinet following a “hot mic” incident in which she spoke negatively about an ASL interpreter and, more recently, a social media post she shared concerning the assassination of American conservative podcaster Charlie Kirk.

“I expect the Opposition will be trying to bait Nahanni Fontaine over the next month or so to see if they can rile her up,” Adams said.

The NDP, meanwhile, plans to introduce legislation to lock up people high on meth more than 24 hours, the current legal limit.

“This law that we’re looking at is about responding to the meth crisis,” Kinew told reporters Thursday when asked about his agenda for the fall sitting.

Winnipeg police have said an extended detention will help to ensure users recover and make it through the “tough” psychosis caused by the drug.

The premier also said that a vote will be held on the ethics commissioner’s recommendation to fine former premier Heather Stefanson and two of her cabinet ministers for violating conflict rules. That vote must be held by Oct. 7.

Commissioner Jeffrey Schnoor recommended Stefanson, Cliff Cullen and Jeff Wharton be fined for pushing to license a sand mine after the PCs lost the 2023 election and before the NDP government took office.

The premier said his majority NDP government plans to vote in favour of the fines — $18,000 for Stefanson, $12,000 for Cullen and $10,000 for Wharton, who was re-elected.

As for the Liberal party, Adams said he’ll be watching for a new party leader to join the visitors gallery.

Former Winnipeg Blue Bombers star running back Willard Reaves was announced Monday as the Liberals’ new leader, elected by acclamation. The party’s one sitting MLA, Cindy Lamoureux, announced earlier she was stepping aside as interim leader.

Reaves ran for the Liberals in the Fort Whyte byelection in 2022. Khan narrowly won the constituency formerly held by former PC premier Brian Pallister.

“Willard Reaves will be sitting up in the visitor gallery just like Sharon Carstairs did before she was elected to the assembly,” Adams said, referring to the former Liberal leader who led the party’s resurgence in the 1980s.

The Liberals chose Carstairs as leader in 1984 when they had none of the 57 seats in the legislature. She was elected in the 1986 Manitoba vote and sat as the lone Liberal in the house until the 1988 election, when the party went from holding only the leader’s River Heights seat, to 20 MLAs and formed the Opposition to Gary Filmon’s PC government.

“She would sit up there as the leader of the party and take notes and be available to media,” Adams recalled of Carstairs’ situation between 1984 and 1986.

“That will be something to watch for in this coming session.”

carol.sanders@freepress.mb.ca