Sniping Stanley makes case for extension

Logan Stanley, prime extension candidate or the key to recouping lost draft capital?

To suggest the Winnipeg Jets are coming to a crossroads with the 18th overall pick of the 2016 NHL draft is entirely accurate.

A decision isn’t necessarily imminent, but it’s not as far away as you might think.

And while the benefits and the consequences of this upcoming decision are already being hotly-debated on various social media platforms, you can be sure that determining Stanley’s future was among the topics discussed by Jets’ management at scouting meetings that recently wrapped up.

Stanley is one of eight pending unrestricted free agents on the NHL roster and he’s having the best season of his six-year career, which includes eight goals — the most recent a booming slapper that beat Jesper Wallstedt in Thursday’s 6-2 victory over the Minnesota Wild — 15 points, 91 penalty minutes and a right hand to the face of Ottawa Senators captain Brady Tkachuk that resulted in a one-game suspension for roughing.

Chalk it all up and the Jets are left to get locked in on determining whether Stanley is simply riding a red-hot shooting percentage to blow away his career-high in goals (which was one previously) or that he’s finally figuring things out at the NHL level and entering his prime.

Complicating matters somewhat is that a report by Chris Johnston in The Athletic speculated that Stanley could be in line for a deal that could reach five years and up to US$25 million if he reaches unrestricted free agency on July 1.

Whether Stanley ends up getting four years at US$4 million or US$5 million for five, what’s apparent is that he’s put himself in position to receive a significant raise.

And he’s going to get it, whether that’s here or elsewhere.

For as much public discourse is out there and the numerous opinions shared over the years, Stanley is still a relative unicorn, given his six-foot-seven, 231-pound frame.

This isn’t about comparisons to Boston Bruins legend and 2025 Hockey Hall of Fame inductee Zdeno Chara, as he’s basically one of one and not a standard anyone his size or otherwise should be held to.

But even Chara needed somewhere in the neighbourhood of 200-plus NHL games before he started growing into a dominant force.

This is not to suggest Stanley is on the verge of becoming a dominant force, but he brings certain elements to a defence corps that will make him attractive to every team in the NHL, either in the coming weeks or months depending on how things play out.

It’s easy to envision any number of contenders lining up for an opportunity to make a deal for Stanley prior to the NHL trade deadline on Mar. 6 and his US$1.25 million annual average value makes him even more attractive.

But what will the offers for him actually be like?

As a point of reference, Luke Schenn fetched a second and fourth round pick from the Jets last March.

Obviously, Schenn brought championship pedigree Stanley doesn’t have, but Stanley’s offensive production is considerably higher this season.

If the Jets are unable to fully get themselves back in the playoff race during the 10 games leading into the Olympic break, a number of things could be on the table in terms of how personnel is handled prior to — and after — the NHL trade deadline.

Figuring out how much the Jets are willing to commit to Stanley being part of the future is going to be a priority and it’s easy to understand why.

For a franchise that has been short on homegrown draft and development stories since 2017, extending Stanley makes sense on a number of levels, especially when you consider the Jets are planning to be competitive again next fall due to the age of the core group.

The process of becoming a full-time NHLer took longer than either Stanley or the Jets thought it would, even though it was clear when the Jets traded up to get him in 2016 that he was a longer-range project and needed time to grow into his body and round out his game.

Injuries were also a factor at various points after he turned pro, but Stanley is showing a level of comfort that hasn’t been this high until now.

“I have seen that shot and this year we have seen it a lot more,” Jets head coach Scott Arniel said after Thursday’s game. “He has got so much confidence right now. He is feeling it. Great for him.”

“He has got so much confidence right now. He is feeling it. Great for him.”

Jets centre Mark Scheifele made the bold proclamation on Thursday that he believed Stanley had this type of offensive ability in him for a long time.

By extending Stanley, the Jets left side will basically be taken care of through the next two seasons, as Josh Morrissey and Dylan Samberg can become unrestricted free agents on July 1 of 2028 (if extensions are not completed before then).

Yes, the Jets have two left-handed shooting defence prospects in 2025 first-rounder Sascha Boumedienne and 2024 second-rounder Alfons Freij — who recently helped Sweden capture the World Junior Hockey Championship in Minnesota.

The earliest either one of those players is probably going to challenge for a full-time NHL roster spot is 2027-28, so while it’s a consideration, a longer-term deal for Stanley wouldn’t necessarily mean that the path for either player is blocked, at least not for an extended period of time.

Stanley will turn 28 in May and, after making close to the league minimum for the better part of his pro career, he will be looking to cash in on his career year.

Don’t expect a hometown discount, even if he’s growing into a fan favourite and has had fans chanting his name at various points this season.

That response certainly beats the boos that occasionally were directed his way over the years, but those days seem like a long time ago.

The same goes for the trade request that wasn’t granted in 2023, when Stanley was struggling to get regular playing time and still finding his way.

That’s also in the past.

Stanley is taking on more responsibility, both at even strength and the penalty kill with a trio of blue-liners out of the lineup and considered week-to-week.

In Thursday’s game, Stanley took 24 shifts for just over 18 minutes of ice time.

While there’s still room for improvement on the defensive side of the game, he’s using his body and stick more effectively and trying to improve that element as well.

Now, if Stanley is dead set on testing the open market and not willing to come to terms on a deal with the Jets prior to the NHL trade deadline, the organization essentially will have no choice but to move on from him and try to bring back the strongest package out there.

That’s a potential outcome neither Stanley or the fan base is all that interested in thinking about right now. But that doesn’t mean it’s something that’s fully on the back burner either.

A decision is looming and it could have far-reaching ramifications.

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