Jets mailbag: wild card talk, trade interest and breaking up the dream team

What the heck is going on with the Winnipeg Jets?

The questions were flying in fast and furious this month — emphasis on the furious part — as Free Press hockey writers Mike McIntyre and Ken Wiebe opened up the monthly mailbag.

Group therapy is now in session.

1. Assuming the Jets can somehow get into a position to be wildcard competitor, I would think the odds of them getting out of the first round would be stacked heavily against them.

In other words, do you think Kevin Cheveldayoff should be an aggressive seller and start a rebuild for the future. Standing pat is the same as doing nothing (something he has become quite adept at), and being a buyer at this stage is just a waste of whatever assets he has left.

SHELDON

MCINTYRE: Sell! Sell! Sell!

The website Money Puck currently gives Winnipeg about five per cent odds to make the dance. Honestly, that seems too high to me. I say they are toast.

It’s not just the eight point deficit currently staring them in the face, but the fact there are two other non-playoff teams right now that are also eight points ahead of them.

A team likely needs at LEAST 90 points to sneak into the second wild-card spot this season, which would actually be considerably lower than previous years. If that’s the case, Winnipeg will need 43 points in its final 31 games. That would mean a record of like 21-9-1.

I just don’t see it happening.

Being any type of buyer right now would be negligent, and standing pat wouldn’t be a wise example of asset management. The best course of action is to see what any and all of your eight pending unrestricted free agents might fetch on the market and judge accordingly, especially if you are not planning on bringing them back.

In my eyes, defenceman Logan Stanley and Luke Schenn, centre Jonathan Toews, wingers Tanner Pearson and Cole Koepke and backup goaltender Eric Comrie should all drum up interest.

Even if the return is draft capital, this is the time to pounce. Winnipeg has traded plenty of picks away in recent years, so this is a chance to replenish that pool. Plus, it would open up some spots down the final stretch for younger players on the Manitoba Moose to get a chance to show their stuff.

“Even if the return is draft capital, this is the time to pounce”

To be clear, this will not be a rebuild. As long as the core remains in place, the Jets will always view themselves as contenders. But this is a chance to reset and ultimately retool and reload.

2. Is it time for a coaching change?

JOE

WIEBE: Although it’s true that all coaches have a shelf life, making a move behind the bench isn’t the way the Jets should go here.

Did Scott Arniel suddenly forget how to coach less than 12 months after leading the Jets to the best record in franchise history? Of course not. The coaching staff certainly takes its share of the responsibility for the dramatic drop off, but the plan set out has proven to be a winning plan.

It helped the Jets advance past the first round for the first time since 2021. And it allowed them to push the Dallas Stars to double overtime in Game 6 of the second round. That wasn’t the end goal, nobody is arguing there.

The biggest change this season is with personnel. The Jets aren’t playing nearly as fast as they did last season, they’re not defending as well and their special teams haven’t been as good. Goals against are up and goals scored are down. That’s not a winning formula.

Arniel should have brokered some goodwill during the previous three seasons behind the bench (the first two as an associate coach on Rick Bowness’ staff). This core group is on its fourth head coach already, including interim bench boss Dave Lowry.

One of those coaches left and eventually came back to win consecutive Stanley Cup titles, another temporarily retired but is back behind the bench of the Columbus Blue Jackets and he’s been getting positive results since taking over.

So, it’s simply my opinion that a coaching change wouldn’t magically turn the Jets into a playoff team immediately. It says here that Arniel deserves some additional runway as it pertains to his future with the organization.

3. Does this organization need a President of Hockey Ops as a buffer between ownership & GM?

CHUCK

MCINTYRE: It’s a great question, one I’ve previously wondered about myself.

The Jets have one of the smaller front offices in the NHL, and it is filled with people who have been here seemingly forever. Loyalty runs deep in the organization, which can be a very good thing. But it also can create some blind spots, in my opinion.

Bringing in an outside voice with a fresh set of eyes wouldn’t be the worst idea, but I honestly just don’t see it happening any time soon. Doing so would require a big change in philosophy from ownership.

Mark Chipman and Kevin Cheveldayoff clearly have a deep bond and strong relationship — Chipman has previously joked that Cheveldayoff will outlast him — which tells me they feel all their bases are covered.

“Chipman has previously joked that Cheveldayoff will outlast him.”

Yet I go back to when Cheveldayoff was initially in the interview stage following the departure of head coach Paul Maurice (and the decision not to bring back interim bench boss Dave Lowry), and the GM spoke openly about how refreshing and rewarding it was to pick the brains of all these external candidates to hear what they thought of the Jets.

Rick Bowness was ultimately brought in and clearly ushered some long overdue changes. To me, the organization could use more of that, not less.

4. Do you think the Jets will actually end up with a decent draft pick spot? Or will they win enough to mess it up and end up with a mushy middle spot?

RIYANA

WIEBE: The crystal ball is a bit cloudy when it comes to this answer and it will depend on which version of the Jets shows up for the final 30 games.

If they have another couple of runs like the 5-1-2 stretch that preceded the 5-1 loss to the Detroit Red Wings, the mushy middle is certainly a possibility. But the Jets also face one of the more difficult schedules down the stretch, so it’s possible that their winning percentage is closer to the .500 mark that they’re currently below.

The interesting part of the playoff chase in the Western Conference is that some of the teams ahead of the Jets haven’t been in the post-season for a significant stretch of time, so how are those teams going to react when the intensity is cranked up? Although the Jets can’t worry about anything other than trying to pick off those teams ahead of them, how teams like the San Jose Sharks, Los Angeles Kings, Seattle Kraken, Nashville Predators, Chicago Blackhawks and Calgary Flames play will also play a significant role in where the Jets ultimately finish in the standings.

Barring a couple of lengthy winning streaks, it seems more likely the Jets will have a Top-10 pick in the 2026 NHL draft. A Top-3 to 5 pick is something the Jets would probably benefit from in the long run but it would take a lot of losing in the second half for that to become a reality — unless the Jets take a big jump in the NHL Draft Lottery.

5. Do you believe there will be any trade interest for Nino Niederreiter, Vlad Namestnikov and/or Gustav Nyquist?

MARK

MCINTYRE: While Niederreiter and Namestnikov have struggled through large stretches this season — Niederreiter has 18 points (7 goals, 11 assists) and Namestnikov has only 12 points (7G, 5A) — I believe there could be some value in the pair of 33-year-old skaters, who are both signed for one more season.

Niederreiter, who recently played his 1,000th game and will be representing Switzerland at the Olympics, is making US$4 million. Namestnikov is paid US$3 million. They have been good soldiers for this organization, signing extensions following their initial acquisition at the 2023 trade deadline, but perhaps a fresh start would be prudent for all parties.

The price would have to be right for Cheveldayoff to pull the trigger, but in a seller’s market and given the current state of his squad, it should at least be considered.

As for Nyquist….

Thirty-two games. Zero goals. Just eight assists. It’s been a nightmare season for the 36-year-old, who signed a one-year, US$3.25 million contract with the Jets in the hopes he’d help provide some secondary scoring after the departure of Nikolaj Ehlers in free agency.

At this point, I can’t imagine there’s any type of market for him.

6. Does Mark Chipman truly believe fans wouldn’t tolerate a rebuild or does he not want to and he’s justifying it?

@mennoknight427

WIEBE: The governor and co-owner of the Jets made it crystal clear when signing Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele to matching seven-year contract extensions on October of 2023 that the organization was committed to winning and he hasn’t changed his mind on that front.

There is also evidence in the Manitoba market and around the league that a full-blown rebuild has substantial consequences when it comes to attendance and other revenue generators. A scorched earth rebuild also doesn’t align with the commitments made — and likely coming — from a core group of players ranging from 29 to 33 years old.

The results from this season don’t align with a win-now franchise, but the strong individual performances from the core players — including defenceman Josh Morrissey — suggests that with a few moves and potentially a high draft pick, the Jets shouldn’t be entering an extended period of lean years.

A full-on rebuild, like the one you are suggesting, would have to mean moving on from the majority of the core group — and would also make re-signing guys like Morrissey and Dylan Samberg far more difficult.

To me, it’s not about Chipman not wanting to and justifying it. Rebuilds take an extended period of time and don’t guarantee of success. They require plenty of good fortune and an abundance of patience.

Do I think the Jets and the fan base would benefit from a highly skilled teenager to bolster the lineup like in 2016 when Patrik Laine burst onto the scene after he was the second overall pick? Absolutely. But the Jets were in a much different place as an organization to make that pivot after making the playoffs in 2015 than they are today when it comes to roster construction.

“It’s impossible not to see an impact at the gate.”

As for the first part of your question about fans tolerating a rebuild, seeing crowds shrink in places like San Jose and Chicago that were full for a long time showed that it’s impossible not to see an impact at the gate. Those cities are rebounding, but still have a long way to go to get back to their glory days.

7. The Jets have had success jamming/screening the front of the net. They go away from that. lousy results. Why stop?

TIM

MCINTYRE: I suspect, Tim, you’ve hit on one of the many things keeping head coach Scott Arniel tossing and turning at night and likely driving the entire coaching staff mad when they do video review with players.

Far too often, the Jets have gotten away from the hard-nosed style of play you need to compete at this level. And just when you think they’ve perhaps turned the corner and figured it out, they go and take two steps back.

Net-front traffic and scoring the so-called greasy goals was a staple during that recent four-game winning streak, when the team lit the lamp 20 times. And yet, it’s pretty much vanished again during this latest stretch of just one win in five games and goals have once again become painfully difficult.

I’ll say this: It looks easy to us — just go to the net, right? — but obviously it’s not that simple or else everybody would do it and have success. Niederreiter recently spoke about how it’s more mental than physical, especially when things start going downhill and a team is fragile and lacking confidence.

The old saying, “You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make him drink” seems apt here. At some point, you have to wonder if the Jets just don’t have enough players willing to pay the proverbial price.

8. I see the debates about Logan Stanley. To me it shouldn’t even be a debate. Stanley is a unicorn. You sign Stanley all day long. You ever hear the song with the lyrics ‘You don’t know what you got till it’s gone’ (Ehlers! Marner!)?

That’s what I think about Stanley. You won’t find another Stanley. Anyone you get for Stanley, you will have to spend time developing. What’s the point in that unless you’re gonna rebuild?

NISH

WIEBE: Don’t get caught in the weeds in the spirit of this debate. This has less to do about a desire to keep Stanley than it does with what the details of the next contract are going to look like.

After trading up to 18th overall to choose Stanley in the 2016 NHL draft, the Jets have invested a decade in his development, that much is true. But this isn’t about sunk cost fallacy either, it’s about trying to figure out if this season is going to be close to the new normal or if there’s further room for growth.

By recently playing the off side and managing ice time north of 20 minutes per game, Stanley showed added value for someone who is usually viewed as being a third-pairing guy. He’s also taking some spins on the second power-play unit with Neal Pionk sidelined.

Stanley’s recent comments about his situation caught my attention. He showed great awareness, recognizing the growth in his game, but also being comfortable pointing out there were areas that require further attention.

As someone turning 28 in May, Stanley will be looking to cash in during his first shot at unrestricted free agency and he’s earned a raise from the US$1.25 million he earned the past two seasons. But if the Jets and Stanley can’t find common ground on an extension, the organization would need to pivot to try and bring back an asset for him.

That wouldn’t signal a rebuild, it would be an example of strong asset management. But they would also be missing some valuable elements Stanley provides to the lineup that are difficult to replace.

9. The Jets are supposed to be a draft and develop franchise. Did they make a mistake drafting Cole Perfetti at #10 in 2020 when Seth Jarvis, Yaroslav Askarov and Anton Lundell were available? Did they make a mistake(s) in how they’ve developed Lambert?

JOHN

MCINTYRE: What’s that old saying about hindsight?

It’s a fun, but ultimately futile exercise to go back in time, pick any random draft and wonder what could have been. And it would be fascinating to find out how close the organization was to going in a different direction.

At the time Perfetti was picked, the Jets celebrated the fact he was still on the board. Askarov, who went with the very next pick to Nashville, was never an option. The Jets weren’t about to use such a high pick on a goaltender given they already had, and still have, their franchise man. But Lundell and Jarvis going immediately after is cause for some debate.

Lundell already has two Stanley Cup rings and has grown into his role with Florida.

The Jarvis one really stings, given that he’s a hometown kid and someone with a huge personality that would have fit in seamlessly around here. He’s off to a tremendous start in his career with Carolina, having made the Canadian team for the 4 Nations and coming close to cracking the Olympic roster.

Perfetti sure looked like he had come into his own last season, and he’ll always be remembered for the “Manitoba Miracle” goal. But there’s no question his high ankle sprain really derailed this campaign.

“But there’s no question his high ankle sprain really derailed this campaign.”

I’m not ready to give up on him just yet, although it’s interesting to see his name now come up in some trade talks.

As for Lambert, he was always a bit of a wildcard. His stock had fallen in his draft year, with concerns about his eventual development, but the Jets opted to roll the dice on what they felt was a potentially high ceiling.

We have yet to see anything close to that, although maybe scoring a late-game winner on Sunday for the Manitoba Moose against the American Hockey League’s top team — just his fifth goal of the season — will get him in gear for the rest of this year.

10. Is Logan Stanley’s shooting percentage sustainable?

GARRET

WIEBE: Stanley’s career arc to this point would suggest that maintaining a career-high shooting percentage that has the towering defenceman on the verge of double digits in goals would be very difficult to sustain.

Going from five seasons of one goal to eight (and counting) is a meteoric rise. So, your skepticism is warranted. But, when you consider the volume of shots Stanley has been able to generate this season, there is certainly reason to believe that he won’t automatically revert to one goal per season, even if this campaign goes down as an outlier.

He’s got a big shot, he’s shown an ability to get it through and he’s jumping into the rush more often. So, rather than deal with the extremes, I would suggest there’s been enough growth in Stanley’s offensive game to predict he would be able to settle in as a five to seven goal scorer that occasionally threatens to hit double digits during the course of his next contract.

11. How about you both tell us readers your “fantasy team lineup” for the Jets. And you have to split up 81 & 55. All lines and defence please from the current roster as of today.

WARREN

WIEBE: First of all, Warren, how can it be my fantasy lineup if you’re the one setting out the ground rules? I personally don’t think Scheifele and Connor need to be split up. The concept of driving their own lines is something the Jets may consider exploring at some point (maybe even later this season) — the trio with Gabe Vilardi was one of the most effective top lines in the entire NHL last season — so, to me, that’s something worth keeping intact.

Unlike some folks, I think they’re better together than apart. But for the sake of the exercise, I will give your idea a try.

I’ve mentioned before that trying Cole Perfetti with Scheifele together is something to test out as well, whether that’s with Vilardi or Connor. For the time being, putting Perfetti with Connor would reunite the duo that enjoyed some success together when Pierre-Luc Dubois was playing centre on that line. Based on what Danny Zhilkin did in a small sample size, I’d give him strong consideration for a spot among the 18 skaters as well.

Given where the Jets are in the standings, it’s natural to believe there will be trades coming, which will also change the dynamics. It’s also worth mentioning that looking for an optimal lineup is problematic because of injuries teams are dealing with when preparing for Game 52 and beyond. Based on the current players available (not including Neal Pionk, Haydn Fleury, Colin Miller), this is my projected lineup for a winner-take-all game:

FORWARDS:

Morgan Barron-Mark Scheifele-Gabe Vilardi

Kyle Connor-Jonathan Toews-Cole Perfetti

Cole Koepke-Adam Lowry-Alex Iafallo

Nino Niederreiter-Vladislav Namestnikov-Tanner Pearson

DEFENCE:

Josh Morrissey-Elias Salomonsson

Dylan Samberg-Dylan DeMelo

Logan Stanley-Luke Schenn

GOAL:

Connor Hellebuyck

Eric Comrie

MCINTYRE: I’m in favour of a more dramatic approach and seeing what Scheifele and Connor could do on separate lines. They can still work their magic together on the power play. Besides, even that top line has gone pretty cold in recent games when it comes to even strength scoring.

So, this is what my lineup would look like based on your criteria of who’s currently on the roster and healthy:

FORWARDS:

Perfetti-Scheifele-Vilardi

Connor-Toews-Iafallo

Niederreiter-Lowry-Barron

Koepke-Namestnikov-Pearson

DEFENCE:

Morrissey-Salomonsson

Samberg-Stanley

Phillips-DeMelo

GOAL:

Hellebuyck

Comrie

One final caveat: With eight of the above players on expiring contracts, I suspect this is going to look a lot different after the March 6 deadline. Let’s revisit it then.

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