Job numbers give Manitobans room for optimism By: Dylan Robertson and Martin Cash Posted: 7:00 PM CDT Friday, Jun. 5, 2020 Last Modified: 10:14 PM CDT Friday, Jun. 5, 2020 Updates

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This article was published 05/06/2020 (1923 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

OTTAWA — Manitobans have room for optimism, as the first two weeks of a gradual reopening show those hardest hit in the COVID-19 recession have started re-entering the job market.

The monthly Labour Force Survey released Friday morning shows 13,100 Manitobans got back to work at the start of May. That’s about 15 per cent of those who lost their job since the pandemic hit the province, with the largest recovery to food services, recreation and retail.

“Those are the ones that were hit particularly hard, so it’s good to see those jobs coming back,” said Conference Board of Canada senior economist Cory Renner.

The number of Manitobans on a temporary layoff dropped from 33,400 in mid-April to 27,600 during the survey period of May 10 to 16.

Manitoba saw a 17 per cent uptick in employment for low-wage workers in early May compared with a month prior, versus just 0.3 per cent for low- and middle-income earners.

Renner said that’s no reason to be pessimistic. While it’s important to everyone return to work, Renner said higher earners can rely on their savings, while lower-income people will now be more secure financially and able to spend on essentials, compared with government benefits.

He also said “quite confidently” that wage subsidies and emergency benefits have likely softened the economic blow. Statistics Canada shows a peak national loss of 15 per cent of jobs, but only 3 to 5 per cent less income in the economy, which would slow an otherwise domino-style recession.

“Those are income-supplement programs, which means they will really help support our economic recovery,” Renner said.

However, the decline in service jobs continues to disproportionately impact young people and especially women. Economists say a lack of childcare could make this gap persist, in Manitoba and across the country.

Bram Strain, CEO of the Business Council of Manitoba — which represents the largest employers in the province — said there is a general sense of optimism out there, as the economy in Manitoba starts to open up again.

But at the same time, he said, the impact of the shutdown will lag in some sectors, as existing order books might have kept manufacturers, for instance, busy through March and April. Some of them may start feeling the effects of the unprecedented shut down through the summer, as their order books thin out after orders slowed down over the past three months.

Manitoba’s goods-producing sectors took a hit in April, following the shutdown of service jobs. Renner said he’s expecting factories to bounce back gradually. The return of restaurants and hair salons helps fuel demand for products made in factories.

“Some manufacturers will face supply-chain issues; some construction companies will hold off until their projects are going forward, as the economy stabilizes,” Renner said.

Strain said 70 of the 73 members of the Business Council of Manitoba have continued operating, albeit under the province’s social-distancing guidelines.

The hospitality and entertainment industries continue to be hard hit. Hotels may have stayed open, but there was no business and many workers had to be temporarily laid off.

“That was one sector that was hit very hard and from our point of view will be in need of some shoring up,” said Strain.

The report also shows job losses in education as well as utility services such as heating and irrigation technicians.

Manitoba had the lowest official unemployment rate in Canada in May — however this does not include working-age people who have stopped seeking jobs; that metric puts Manitoba just behind Saskatchewan.

The Conference Board, a non-partisan think tank, is pegging a full recovery at late 2021 or possibly early 2022.

“We’re going to see bumps along the road, but things are starting to look up and I think people in Manitoba — where the COVID pandemic was more minor than a lot of the other provinces — are probably already starting to feel that. it’s just going to be a slow path back, but we’ll get there eventually.”

dylan.robertson@freepress.mb.ca

martin.cash@freepress.mb.ca