2022: A return to far-from-normal

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 30/12/2022 (1156 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

For much of 2020 and 2021, business analysts and prognosticators said that 2022 would be the start of a hopeful, sunny, back-to-normal post-pandemic era.

COVID cases were blessedly down in 2022, but so was just about everything else… except interest rates and inflation.

There’s no getting around it, 2022 was a struggle.

Economic indicators were all pointing in the wrong direction early in the year, then Russia invaded Ukraine and global supply chains convulsed and are basically still in need of urgent medical attention.

Winnipeg being Winnipeg it probably fared better than most under the circumstances and there were some interesting developments with the potential for long term positive implications.

But let’s not pretend — the top business stories of the year were dominated by bad news:

Tickets to paradise on sale now — Rarely has an airline generated as much goodwill in town as WestJet did announcing direct flights from Winnipeg to Los Angeles. It was as if a desirous but unattainable travel option was suddenly an option for every single Manitoban. Ostensibly established to aid the local film and TV production business, it’s likely put Southern California on the vacation destination bucket lists for many. But we’ll all be forced back to booking with Sunwing, notwithstanding its current fiascos, if those LA-bound flights don’t stay full.

The promise of some VC — It hasn’t materialized yet but a $50-million commitment from the provincial government to salt some venture capital funds in the province will put Manitoba back in the game after being on the sidelines for more than 15 years. (Ironically 2022 was also the year the Crocus Investment Fund made its final payment to shareholders finally closing that regrettable chapter.) The fund is still being built and the third party fund operators have yet to be identified but that will happen early in the new year. Next year should include news of investments, ideally to viable recipients.

Closing time — After the initial shutdown in the spring of 2020, it seemed like it would only be a matter of time before the economic repercussions of the pandemic disruptions started to manifest. This was the year. Businesses close all the time for all sorts of reasons, but 2022 saw a rash of them including some iconic Winnipeg institutions including: River City Sports, KUB Bakery, Dominion News, Quest Musique, Jordan Van Sewell’s gallery at the Forks, Oriental Market, Rudy’s Auto Service, Silver Skies and TappCar. All blamed various elements of the pandemic experience as the reason for the closures.

The restaurant business is tough — Even in the best of times restaurant success rates are at the low end of the business startup spectrum. City promoters like to tout the foodie culture in Winnipeg, but sadly many of the struggling proprietors were left out to dry during the intermittent social distancing mandates of the past two years. The chits came due for many this year who were forced to close, including: Nathan Detroit’s Sandwich Pad, Moxies (at Canada Life Centre), Promenade Cafe and Wine, Tuxedo Village Family Restaurant, Monstrosity Burger and Forth Café. Several others closed but were quickly occupied by brave new proprietors including, Close Co., Little Goat Food and Drink, La Belle Baguette, Sorrento’s Bar and Pizzeria on Ellice Avenue and Le Garage.

Indigenous fliers — With Indigenous people making up close to 20 per cent of the population of Manitoba, it stands to reason they would have representation across the social and economic spectrum. Sadly, we know that is not the case. But inroads are being made and the imperative is being understood by powerful commercial entities like Exchange Income Corp. (EIC). The Winnipeg company owns Calm Air, Perimeter Aviation, Keewatin Air and other regional airlines who do a lot of business servicing Indigenous communities. This year the company launched an indigenous pilot training program — completely free of charge for the participants. The first group of 11 got their pilot licenses this year. Many will go on to get their commercial licenses — again, completely financed by EIC. In addition to the prospects of Indigenous pilots staffing commercial flights into Indigenous communities, the program will serve as an excellent example of economic reconciliation for others to follow.

Striking it rich — Manitoba certainly has its share of natural resources from which to generate wealth — ideally in a safe and responsible manner. But besides hydroelectricity there’s never been an oil and gas boom or a massive discovery of globally rare minerals like potash or uranium. Lithium, in great demand for the production of the countless millions of batteries needed for the electrification of the global economy, could be the thing. It has not materialized yet but about a dozen lithium exploration companies are working in the province, some of whose properties are highly regarded. And there’s no less than two commercial undertakings to determine the feasibility of building processing plants here. The potential windfall is such that one of those exploration companies is already facing an aggressive proxy battle with Australian investors for control of the company.

Supply chains and job vacancies — It used to be manufacturers just had to worry about filling up their order books and working efficiently. Now, that’s not nearly enough ingredients for success. Just ask Winnipeg’s NFI, North America’s largest bus maker with a ridiculously large market share and a highly regarded management team. Its order book has never been better. Governments are subsidizing transit authorities like never before. But the company just can’t get enough of a few part,s which is preventing them from finishing orders. It is not alone. And not only has the global supply chain been royally screwed up, manufacturers can’t find enough workers to keep pace with the work they do have the parts for. Manitoba’s experience is representative of the national situation where Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters has estimated the worker shortage crisis has cost its members about $13 billion in 2022.

Remembrances of 1977 — The first two years of pandemic were such a blur to most of us as we just tried to cope from week to week. (Those government support payments helped in that regard.) But it seems like no one got the memo about inflation until Russia invaded Ukraine and the world remembered that Russian oil was a significant component of the global market. Now everything is more expensive every week. Only those who can remember the ’70s have experienced inflation like this and we’re being warned that, for instance, food prices could rise another five to seven per cent in 2023. Along the way interest rates have risen so fast that the year in real estate markets was split in half from bullish in the first half to bearish in a matter of six months.

An overnight success in 15 years — For the first decade of its existence most people could not tell you what or where Centreport was. Now there’s a freeway, dozens of new industrial buildings and this year an experienced, enthusiastic developer signed on to create a unique industrial development that will link its very large tenants directly to CP Rail’s main line (with switching capacity to the other Class 1 rail lines). And after years of arm-twisting, this year the province committed $40 million to build sewer and water services to make another 2,500 acres of Centreport’s footprint available for development including about 500 acres that will be residential. When proponents said Centreport would be transformational for the city back in 2008, many scratched their heads in wonder. Now we understand.

Commerce is still a thing — Although the Manitoba business narrative in 2022 was dominated by closures, there were still plenty of entrepreneurs with the will to charge ahead regardless of conditions (and the admonitions of their loved ones). The Free Press reported on a few of the new business openings over the course of the year, including: Sugar Blossom Jewelry, Red Rebel Armour, Manitobah, Almond Nail Bar, Prairie Velo, OEB Breakfast Co., Sugar Mama Cookie Co., Devil May Care taproom and Cntrbnd.

martin.cash@freepress.mb.ca