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Budget says $1.4-billion reduction in trade possible under Trump

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The Manitoba government’s budget response to the tariff war launched by the U.S. has some in the private sector cheering and others wanting to know the fine print.

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This article was published 20/03/2025 (199 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The Manitoba government’s budget response to the tariff war launched by the U.S. has some in the private sector cheering and others wanting to know the fine print.

Upwards of $300 million has been tabbed for tariff-related business and farmer relief under the government’s contingency budget, tabled Thursday in the legislature. In addition, the New Democrats have pledged payroll tax cuts, a boost to tourism advertising funds and a $10-million business security rebate.

“We would have liked to see the budget… with more details,” said Chuck Davidson, president of the Manitoba Chambers of Commerce.

MIKE DEAL / FREE PRESS
                                Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce president Loren Remillard, right, hailed the inclusion of tariff relief measures, but wants more details.

MIKE DEAL / FREE PRESS

Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce president Loren Remillard, right, hailed the inclusion of tariff relief measures, but wants more details.

The contingency budget contains three groupings of $100 million allocated to supports for “trade-exposed firms,” loans for Manitoba businesses through the Manitoba Development Corp., and assistance for farmers and producers.

A further $185 million is earmarked for training-related post-secondary funding, student aid grants and loans, and programs for families.

However, there aren’t firm details on what form the funding will take, nor was a timeline given for supports to be dished out.

Finance Minister Adrien Sala has his eye on April 2, the day U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to begin reciprocal tariffs. Trump has pushed off broad 25 per cent tariffs on Canadian imports until at least then.

For now, Canadian steel, aluminum and goods that don’t meet the Canada – United States – Mexico Agreement are taxed an extra 25 per cent.

“We’re looking ahead to that April 2 milestone in hopes that we’ll see that tariff threat removed,” Sala said.

Implementation of the contingency budget will depend on what happens, the minister said. The tariff response would need to be presented to the legislature as a supplementary appropriation bill before it becomes law.

“The sooner the better,” Davidson said, considering further tariff support. “It’s something business is really worried about, that we don’t have this at the current time.”

Quebec, New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island have detailed business support programs that include loans and direct grants, said Loren Remillard, president of the Winnipeg Chamber of Commerce.

He wants to know what will trigger business supports and whether companies will be required to pay them back.

“We’ll work with government around those and try to bring (the answers) out,” Remillard stated.

Davidson said it would be helpful to have a tariff resource centre to assist businesses.

In terms of the hit the Manitoba economy would take from tariffs, the worst-case scenario is a 55 per cent drop in the real gross domestic product. The budget says the manufacturing and agriculture sectors are the most at risk and a $1.4-billion reduction in trade is possible.

Both chamber leaders called the tariff relief a positive step.

Still, diversifying markets and breaking interprovincial trade barriers could’ve been bigger budget topics, Davidson said. (A short section of the primary budget discusses direct-to-consumer alcohol sales and improving credential recognition.)

China recently imposed its own tariffs on Canadian goods: 100 per cent on canola and peas, 25 per cent on pork.

The Canadian government has slapped $59.8 billion in retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods, including steel.

Private-sector spending on infrastructure is in limbo, said Tanya Palson, executive director of Manitoba Building Trades.

The Manitoba government’s commitment to build new schools will provide a necessary level of certainty, she said.

“These are all projects that Manitoba needs, but there’s also a guaranteed buyer,” Palson relayed. “We’ve been waiting for a capital spend like this to help keep our industry going and support union jobs.”

Agricultural organizations expressed optimism on budget day. Colin Hornby, general manager of the Keystone Agricultural Producers, was encouraged $100 million was earmarked for farmers.

It’s “critical” to continue working with individual U.S. states and western provinces amid the tariff environment, said Manitoba Pork general manager Cam Dahl.

Work is underway to build up the Port of Churchill, on the shore of Hudson Bay, and the gold mine in Lynn Lake. The government said the mine project, led by Alamos Gold, is in the construction phase. Alamos Gold announced last January that it would build the mine.

“I love the term ‘build, build, build,’” said Chris Avery, chief executive of the company behind the Port of Churchill’s revitalization. “I think that’s really what we need.”

The province announced $36.4 million for ongoing port construction in February; the money is listed in its 2025 budget.

Kris Barnier, Restaurants Canada’s vice-president for central Canada, beamed as he discussed the budget’s $10-million business security rebate.

Manitoba’s 2024 security rebate — $300 each to each qualifying biz that installed security or cameras — didn’t cover the cost, Barnier explained. He’s “looking forward to seeing the details” on the new program.

It’s still in the planning process; a launch date wasn’t made public.

Over the past eight years, more than 100 independent Manitoba restaurants have shuttered, Barnier stated. Several lines in the budget — including previously announced retail sales and payroll tax deferrals — will help cash-strapped businesses during the trade war, Barnier said.

Budget 2025 includes a payroll tax cut starting Jan. 1, 2026. Businesses with payrolls of $2.5 million or less will be tax-exempt; it’s a change from the current $2.25 million cut-off.

Further, the payroll threshold below which businesses pay a reduced rate will be raised to $5 million from $4.5 million.

The move will save local businesses $8.5 million annually, the budget says. It says 150 businesses will be exempt from paying the tax, while another 875 will be “better off.”

Davidson said the plan lacks details and he questioned whether the tax would eventually be eliminated or be a “one-term issue.”

Travel Manitoba, the government agency that promotes tourism, expects to reach a larger audience. The budget boosts it’s $13.9 million funding by $4.5 million.

Travel Manitoba is still the least-funded among its provincial counterparts; however, there’s a “great plan” in place, said Colin Ferguson, the organization’s chief executive.

Five per cent of provincial tourism tax revenue will land at Travel Manitoba, he noted.

“As we gain momentum, we will also gain resources,” Ferguson said, highlighting that many Canadians are avoiding U.S. travel under Trump’s threat to make Canada a state.

“They’re going to explore their own backyard,” he continued. “There’s significant opportunity for us to really market this province more effectively.”

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com

Gabrielle Piché

Gabrielle Piché
Reporter

Gabrielle Piché reports on business for the Free Press. She interned at the Free Press and worked for its sister outlet, Canstar Community News, before entering the business beat in 2021. Read more about Gabrielle.

Every piece of reporting Gabrielle produces is reviewed by an editing team before it is posted online or published in print — part of the Free Press‘s tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.

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