Manitobans bracing for negative impact

In grocery stores, you’ll find Manitobans buying to avoid tariffs and others tightening their purse strings.

Kevin Grabowski, for example, has bulk purchased laundry detergent. He’s spending more on groceries, less on fast food. Buying “the needs instead of the wants,” he said.

A few aisles over, Peggy Bester is also shopping mindfully. No American products if she can help it; nothing too expensive either, because she’s a pensioner on a fixed income.

“I try not to think about it too much,” Bester said, considering the ongoing trade war and volatile stock market. “In the same sense, it’s in the back of your minds — you’re always thinking about it.”

The Retail Council of Canada is anticipating a slowdown in consumer spending. The stock market continues to make headlines for dramatic drops; it follows an announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump to tariff imports from a wide range of countries.

Economists deem a global recession a possibility, depending on the future tariff environment.

Anecdotally, Manitobans seem to be delaying major purchases and opting for mid-range priced items instead of more expensive options, said John Graham, Retail Council of Canada director of government relations for the Prairies.

Statistics Canada hasn’t yet released spending data for March.

“We’ve been through similar times where consumers are feeling stressed,” Graham said. “Manitoba retailers are negatively impacted by consumer uncertainty.”

The recent turbulence of the stock markets and the first impacts of U.S. tariffs are making Manitobans watch their discretionary spending, Graham added. “I think right now, we see a lot of consumers just trying to figure out … what the actions of the U.S. government may have on their personal lives.”

Some may have seen 10 per cent of their investments erased in recent days, noted Carlos Yepez, a University of Manitoba economics professor.

But things change rapidly, he continued: Toronto Stock Exchange values were up Tuesday morning before plunging by the afternoon.

The recent roller-coaster’s level of devastation depends on the future, noted Ian Hudson, associate head of the economics and society stream at the University of Manitoba’s economics department.

“(If) Donald Trump is looking to actually impose tariffs over the long-term that are going to stay on, then we should be worried, in terms of the values of the Canadian stock market,” Hudson said.

“If it’s just some sort of on-again, off-again threat … that’s going to go away, then you don’t have to worry.”

The stock market will eventually return to normal in the second scenario, Hudson explained. However, it’s unclear how long U.S. tariffs on imports from a number of countries, including Canada, will last.

A global recession is “quite possible” if trade wars continue, Hudson added. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan raised their assessments of the odds of the U.S. experiencing a recession after Trump announced widespread tariffs April 2. Canada’s economy is closely tied to America’s, Yepez noted.

In the short-term, Manitoba’s economy might get hit by both tariffs and reduced consumer spending. This could result in further job losses, Hudson said.

Still, sales are on the incline at Luxe Furniture Company and Luxe Barbeque Company. President Phil Squarie estimates purchases are up eight to 12 per cent year-over-year.

“A lot of our clients say they’re afraid of tariffs, and that’s why they’re buying now,” Squarie said.

The Winnipeg business gets most of its products six months before it puts them on the floor. As a result, Luxe hasn’t needed to add tariff costs to its barbecues and furniture yet.

Squarie hopes to have enough inventory for summer. He’s now looking at alternatives for tariff-marked goods. Already, a majority of furniture Luxe stocks is Canadian, he noted.

Flame & Comfort, a fireplace retailer, has also clocked a sales increase. Store owner Dwayne Bennett pointed to ongoing projects that require fireplaces. Customers are increasingly asking for Canadian items, he said.

Pricing has gotten more difficult, he noted: when an employee sits down with a customer, they can’t definitively say whether a 25 per cent tariff fee will be tacked on to a fireplace coming from the United States.

“We don’t know until it actually crosses the border,” Bennett said. “(Trump) could lift the tariffs tomorrow.”

Tariffs are added to quotes but not implemented if they don’t come.

“If (this) continues and we get into a recession, it’s going to affect our sales,” he said. “That said, Winnipeg and Manitoba has been a fairly stable market (with) economic ups and downs.”

Some Canadians are seeing financial improvements due to lower interest rates, noted Rebecca Oakes, Equifax Canada vice-president of advanced analytics. However, financial pressures have intensified for others, she added: Equifax Canada tracked an 8.8 per cent rise in mortgage product 90-day delinquencies, when comparing 2024 and 2025 first quarters in Manitoba.

Credit card spending jumped 2.3 per cent year-over-year in Manitoba in February, to an average $2,200. When adjusted for inflation, the increased spending is less pronounced, an Equifax spokesperson noted.

“While easing inflation and interest rates have offered some consumer relief, the recent economic shifts introduce uncertainty, and their full impact may become clearer in the coming quarters,” the spokesperson wrote in an email.

— with files from The Canadian Press

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com