Adaptability key in climate change crop fight

Higher food prices and a significant drop in production of wheat — one of Manitoba’s most prominent crops — could come by the century’s end due to climate change, a new study suggests.

Meanwhile, Manitoba wheat farmers are taking measures to adapt their practices and produce greater yields amid changing conditions.

A report published in Nature this week projects Canada, China, Russia and the United States — when grouped together — could lose 30 to 40 per cent of wheat yields if the Earth warms roughly 4.3 C by 2100.

Canada alone could see a 20 per cent reduction, according to the study’s lead author.

Andrew Hultgren, an assistant professor of agriculture and consumer economics at the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, headed a fleet of authors behind the paper. He began the research almost nine years ago.

“I hope this paper helps spur social conversation around what the right level of CO2 emissions is today,” Hultgren said.

The team looked at production of six crops globally. It forecast a moderate scenario — where the planet would warm by about 3 C over the next eight decades — and a high-emissions scenario with a roughly 4.3 C jump in temperatures.

In the moderate scenario, Canada’s wheat loss was pegged at 12 per cent. About one-third can be offset by farming adaptations, Hultgren said.

“We can only account for things that we see in our historical data,” he underscored. “If there’s some future major-step change innovation … we can’t account for that.”

Manitoba wheat farmers continually adapt to improve yields — and there’s generally more crop, said Gunter Jochum, president of the Wheat Growers Association.

He farms in the Rural Municipality of St. François Xavier. Rainfall has been scarce this spring — about a quarter of the usual precipitation, Jochum relayed.

“That being said, because of our agronomic practices, the way we seed, the equipment we use, the varieties that we grow, I still expect a decent crop coming off if we get a couple more timely rains,” he said.

It’s different than the drought Jochum experienced in 1988: then, he didn’t have equipment to ensure each seed was sown at the same depth. Drought-resistant seeds hadn’t evolved to their current state; disease and insect resistance was worse.

Wheat pulled $1.7 billion in farm cash receipts last year. It’s Manitoba’s leading crop export. Production hit 5.49 million tonnes in 2024, up from 5.45 million the year earlier.

If anything, growing season has extended and soybeans are now able to prosper, Jochum said.

“Incidentally, the biggest threat to climate change adaption, I would say, is government and policy and regulatory reform,” he asserted.

He’s seeking a political environment where it’s easier for public and private entities to develop new crop varieties. Farmers would buy electric tractors and equipment if the products were viable, but it doesn’t seem realistic right now, Jochum said.

Wheat farmers are not a major source of greenhouse gas emissions, Hultgren said.

He views his study as painting two pictures: one where emissions are higher, leading to less crop production globally and rising food prices. The other, where the Earth warms less, sees fewer crops lost.

“We’re probably on a path that’s … somewhere between those two,” Hultgren said.

The world could warm by 2.9 C this century, the United Nations warned in a 2023 report.

A 3 C warming by the end of the century would equate to a caloric output loss around 360 calories globally. It’s like giving up breakfast, Hultgren said.

“I think the scenario that (the report published in Nature is) outlining is certainly a real concern,” said Fletcher Baragar, a University of Manitoba economics professor.

Higher market prices — benefiting farmers — could follow a substantial drop in wheat production globally. It would make groceries more expensive, Baragar forecast.

He expects pressure will mount in the coming years for funding to find strains of crops that are “better able to withstand heat or changing growing conditions.”

It’s unclear how farming will change with climate over the century, Baragar said— winter wheat growing could become a reality; different types of crops may be introduced. Farmers’ operating costs may rise, he added.

Greater risk of bad crops and use of government-facilitated crop insurance could increase the financial burden on farmers and taxpayers who share the premiums, noted Derek Brewin, a U of M agribusiness and agricultural economics professor.

“I have full confidence that our industry will always adapt,” said Colin Hornby, general manager for the Keystone Agricultural Producers. “Agriculture is one of most adaptable and technologically advanced industries.”

Maize, soybeans, rice, cassava and sorghum were also investigated in the report.

A high-emissions scenario leads to “winners and losers,” Hultgren noted.

For example, soybean yields in the United States could halve, while wet regions in Brazil could experience a 20 per cent increase, the report outlines.

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com