Trade-heavy Manitoba’s GDP growth to slow in 2025: Deloitte

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This article was published 25/06/2025 (437 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Manitoba will lag behind Canada in economic growth this year, a new report by Deloitte forecasts.

The professional services firm predicts a 0.6 per cent increase in Manitoba’s gross domestic product. Nationally, a 1.1 per cent gain in GDP is pegged in 2025.

“The (Manitoba) economy is very exposed to exports,” said Dawn Desjardins, chief economist at Deloitte Canada. “And we are, at least at this stage, still operating in a very uncertain environment.”

Deloitte has noticed a drop in private-sector investments, Desjardins said. Many companies have paused their growth plans as Canadian trade with the United States and China is wrought with tariffs and tension.

The tariff landscape has changed rapidly over the past four months.

Manitoba is a trade-heavy province, Desjardins noted. It saw $37.4 billion worth of trade with the United States last year, per Canadian Chamber of Commerce data.

A reliance on trade has caused Deloitte to project Manitoba’s GDP growth behind Alberta and Saskatchewan. Those Prairie provinces have forecasted GDP increases of 1.3 and 1.8 per cent, respectively.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has called for free trade — or a complete reduction of interprovincial trade barriers — by Canada Day. Manitoba recently passed Bill 47 to mutually recognize goods and services of other jurisdictions with similar laws.

Change to provincial economies won’t come overnight, Desjardins stressed. She predicted five years must pass without interprovincial trade barriers before “substantive increases” in GDP are seen.

Further, some industries who have been protected by interprovincial trade barriers could suffer in the short term, Desjardins said. She didn’t provide examples of such industries by print deadline.

Desjardins shared a rosier outlook for 2026: “We do think that the … Canadian economy will be doing better.”

Leaders should have a better understanding of Canada’s trading relationship interprovincially and with countries like the United States, she continued. The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement on trade will be reviewed then; the United States’ “pain points” should be more clear, Desjardins said.

Deloitte’s latest economic outlook, released Wednesday, suggests Canada’s GDP will grow 1.6 per cent in 2026.

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com