Immigration cap, economic headwinds put Polo Park development on hold

The proposed $1-billion development near Polo Park was billed as a complete community, including multi-family apartment towers, retail space and parks, that would transform the space once occupied by the Winnipeg stadium — but two years later, shifting economic and immigration landscapes have wreaked havoc on the plan.

In early 2023, Shindico Realty Inc. and Cadillac Fairview jointly announced plans for a massive development north of CF Polo Park, Manitoba’s largest shopping mall. However, the developers haven’t even submitted a final application to the City of Winnipeg.

“We’re in a bit of a holding pattern,” said Justin Zarnowski, Shindico Realty’s general counsel.

The initial plan called for construction across 84 acres, to be completed in 2033. The former Canad Inns Stadium land and surface parking lots would be transformed.

Development will happen, Zarnowski emphasized: “It’s too big and valuable a site to just sit forever.”

But for now, leadership is trying to figure out the “best use.” Shindico and Cadillac Fairview each own half the land, Zarnowski said. Cadillac Fairview declined to provide updates.

“A bunch of things have happened that are macroeconomic. It all kind of compounds,” Zarnowski said.

One of the biggest changes is the drop in international students coming to Winnipeg.

“A bunch of things… have happened that are macroeconomic. It all kind of compounds.”– Justin Zarnowski, Shindico Realty’s general counsel

The federal government announced a cap in January 2024 to address public resource concerns. It caused a 30 per cent decrease in University of Manitoba new international enrollment, staff told the Free Press in October.

The lack of clarity on future immigration levels — and whether there’ll be a market to rent a “reasonable suite mix” — is a risk factor, Zarnowski said.

He also cited interest rates and uncertainty stemming from Canada’s trade relationship with the United States. Economists aren’t forecasting another interest rate drop in the near-term; the Bank of Canada hasn’t cut its key policy rate since March.

Ottawa and Washington are working to reach a trade deal by a Friday deadline. It follows months of back-and-forth tariff threats and implementation.

“If you’re ordering something and it’s coming in in six months, and you’re paying for it in six months, what is that price even going to be?” Zarnowski said.

Still, he expects to see firmer plans on the Polo Park property within the year, though it’s “always subject to change.”

“The city, of course, is very looking forward to a development on that site. We will work with them when they’re ready to start.”– Coun. Shawn Dobson (St. James)

The proposed development could be a boon for the area’s roughly 860 businesses, said West End Business Improvement Zone executive director Joe Kornelsen. “We continue to be excited about what’s possible in that location.”

In 2021, the provincial government allowed for new housing to be built near CF Polo Park via a map-redrawing. Such development had been prohibited to address possible airport noise and flight path complaints; the Winnipeg Richardson International Airport is roughly 4.5 kilometres away from the former stadium site.

“The city, of course, is very looking forward to a development on that site,” said Coun. Shawn Dobson (St. James). “We will work with them when they’re ready to start.”

Ron Hambley, the Winnipeg Construction Association’s president, called the location “ripe for redevelopment” and Shindico a “very aware developer.”

“They’ll go in when they know they can fill the units,” he said.

Anecdotally, tariff-related uncertainty among developers has lessened since the beginning of the year, Hambley said. Construction costs have increased on some products — like tariff-hit steel — but projects have continued onward. Manitoba added 8,400 construction jobs in 2025’s first half, Hambley relayed.

Even so, Manitoba’s building permit activity dropped in the first five months of 2025. Statistics Canada tracked a more than seven per cent year-over-year decrease.

Non-residential building permits logged the largest decline. (Hambley attributed the 24 per cent drop to fewer institutional builds, like rural medical centres, than 2024.)

Single-family home permits jumped 35 per cent during the time frame, while multi-family (apartments, condos) declined 10 per cent.

“Our members are busy. They’re not reporting that they’re sitting on their hands. There’s work out there,” Hambley said.

Shindico and Cadillac Fairview’s proposed development would be cushioned by St. James and Empress streets. Cadillac Fairview owns Polo Park.

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com