Conference Board fiscal outlook report ‘pretty optimistic for Manitoba’

In the short-term, Manitoba will face economic strain and a historically high deficit, a new Conference Board of Canada report projects.

However, Manitoba’s situation is more favourable than other provinces — and long-term, the deficit will shrink, per the forecast.

“We are pretty optimistic for Manitoba,” said Richard Forbes, a Conference Board of Canada principal economist.

The non-profit released its annual provincial fiscal outlook this morning. A sluggish economy will be a drag on provincial government revenues across Canada, the paper reads.

Manitoba’s net debt-to-GDP ratio may reach 33 per cent this year. It’s high for the province but will be middling compared to other jurisdictions, the Conference Board predicted.

“A lot of the debt is still lingering from a few years ago,” Forbes said, citing spending during the COVID-19 pandemic. “It could start to improve longer term as the province gets closer to a balanced budget.”

He doesn’t expect a balanced budget in the next five years, but maybe within a decade. The Conference Board projects Manitoba’s deficit to shrink to $540 million in 2029-30 from $1.2 billion in 2024.

Government revenues could rise by 6.3 per cent this year, partly because of the end of the NDP’s gas tax holiday in January, the Conference Board said.

It believes revenue growth will moderate next year through 2030, with average annual gains of 2.9 per cent.

Manitoba has a young population, which is good for both the labour force and less stress on the health-care system, Forbes said.

He highlighted construction at the CentrePort Canada Rail Park. The 665-acre development lands inside the trimodal inland port, which connects businesses with highways, rail lines and air travel.

“Strong investments” in the Winnipeg-area park could boost corporate taxes and job creation, leading to consumer spending and income tax revenue, Forbes said.

The forecast doesn’t account for a prolonged trade war with the United States. It assumes tariff action will peak during 2025’s second quarter, with uncertainty subsiding later in the year.

Manitoba has tabbed up to $485 million in tariff relief for affected businesses and families, should the United States implement sweeping 25 per cent levies on imports. Such spending would push the deficit deeper, Forbes noted.

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com

Gabrielle Piché
Reporter

Gabrielle Piché reports on business for the Free Press. She interned at the Free Press and worked for its sister outlet, Canstar Community News, before entering the business beat in 2021. Read more about Gabrielle.

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