Manitoba GDP forecast to rise by 1% in 2025

Following a tepid 2024, Manitobans can expect more of the same for the provincial economy as 2025 winds down, according to Deloitte.

In its latest forecast, released on Monday, the professional services firm predicted a 1.0 per cent increase in Manitoba’s gross domestic product. Nationally, the firm expects a 1.3 per cent gain in 2025.

Uncertainty continues to hold back economic performance across the country as investors and consumers wait for clarity on trade and the federal government’s fiscal plan.

In an interview with the Free Press, Dawn Desjardins, chief economist at Deloitte Canada, said that Manitoba faces the same economic pressures as other Canadian provinces and territories, including a sharp slowing in immigration that resulted in negligible population growth in the second quarter.

Wildfires are an additional burden impacting the economy in the keystone province, Desjardins said. A report from Statistics Canada in June noted that 2.4 per cent of Manitoba’s GDP was at risk due to wildfires — the most of any province.

According to Deloitte’s forecast, the CUSMA (Canada–U.S.–Mexico trade agreement) carveout should spare Manitoba the worst of the trade war with the United States, but heightened trade tensions with China pose serious risks to the province’s agriculture sector which is likely already on shaky ground after a dry summer.

“2025 is not going to be looking all that rosy (for Manitoba) but we do think the prospect for 2026 is brighter,” Desjardines said.

Economic growth in the province is expected to rebound to 1.8 per cent owing to a major ramp up of private and public investment and the passage of Bill 47, which seeks to remove interprovincial barriers to trade between Manitoba and other provinces.

Public investment in Manitoba projects, such as upgrading and expanding the Port of Churchill, will further underpin a strengthening and growth of the province’s economy next year, Desjardins said — even as the province faces tariffs on canola and aluminum.

Titled It’s Complicated — The Conditions Required for Canada’s Economic Comeback, Deloitte’s forecast suggests the country will avoid a technical recession this year as the economy is expected to grow in the third quarter before posting stronger gains in 2026.

Real gross domestic product fell 1.6 per cent on an annualized basis in the second quarter as the economy saw a drop-off in exports and business investment, Statistics Canada reported last month.

However, Deloitte predicts the Canadian economy will avoid two consecutive quarters of contraction and post annualized growth of 1.2 per cent in the third quarter followed by 1.5 per cent in the final quarter of 2025.

Deloitte expects Canada’s GDP to gain 1.3 per cent this year and 1.7 per cent in 2026.

— with files from The Canadian Press

aaron.epp@freepress.mb.ca