‘Very concerning’: provincial associations wary of Ottawa plan to cut immigration

As Ottawa eyes immigration cuts, Manitoba associations are bracing for workforce changes.

“It’s very concerning, obviously, with the extreme reduction,” said Shaun Jeffrey, chief executive of the Manitoba Restaurant & Foodservices Association.

The federal government plans to slash temporary resident admissions to 385,000 in 2026 from 673,650 in 2025. Both 2027 and 2028 will see 370,000 acceptances, the 2025 budget reads.

Meanwhile, permanent resident admission targets will hover at 380,000 per year for three years, down from 395,000 in 2025.

Temporary foreign workers account for “a very small part” of the province’s restaurant employee pool. Still, the workers are essential in rural areas, Jeffrey said.

He expects rural eateries to cut hours if they can’t fill positions normally taken by immigrants. It’ll be detrimental to Canada’s GDP and rural restaurant workers who see their own shifts scaled back, Jeffrey said.

“It’s certainly going to have a disproportionate impact on rural because of population distribution,” Margot Cathcart, chief executive of the Rural Manitoba Economic Development Corp., said of the immigration changes.

Manufacturers, retailers and health-care hubs staff immigrants to fill gaps, Cathcart said. “What’s going to be really interesting is watching how some of the productivity programming evolves.”

Cathcart gave the example of self-checkout stations: one staff member oversees a number of checkouts, cutting back on the workforce. Tax benefits stemming from the feds and the province seem to promote automation, Cathcart added.

One new measure: Ottawa’s budget touts a “productivity super-deduction,” where companies can write off a share of their capital investments faster.

New automation will spur opportunities for high-wage, high-skilled job creation for “people that might otherwise have been on the checkout line,” Cathcart said.

Colin Hornby, general manager of the Keystone Agricultural Producers, said he’s waiting for more details from Ottawa on the immigration cuts.

“On the labour front, agriculture can get insulated sometimes,” he said. “There’s different consideration given because of the fact that it’s food production.”

The feds’ new budget mentions a foreign credential recognition fund. It could be beneficial for drawing veterinarians, Hornby said.

Roughly 82,600 people lived in Manitoba as non-permanent residents as of April 1. During the 12 months ending March 31, upwards of 24,000 people immigrated to the province.

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com