Noisy scandal opens quiet window for Canada to shore up trade

So, what does convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein have to do with the state of agricultural trade between Canada and the United States?

Well, nothing — and everything.

Most of us couldn’t care less about Epstein, the American financier who died in a New York jail cell in 2019. Yet he’s a household name and one of the headlines consuming an increasingly large piece of the current U.S. administration’s energy and attention.

The show has been stolen by squirming people in high places — mostly men — who either participated in or observed these sordid affairs with obscene interest, rather than by the victimized young women. And their concern isn’t about what they did, but rather by the emerging likelihood they’re about to get called out, which is what makes it “news.”

Richard Madan, the former journalist appointed Manitoba’s senior trade representative in Washington, D.C., noted the Epstein effect when he spoke to the Canadian Farm Writers Federation in Winnipeg this fall.

Trade deals, tariffs and tensions between Canada and the U.S. rank high on the public agenda on the northern side of the border, but in America? Not so much. “The U.S. is flooded with so many other domestic issues that seem to overshadow any headlines on Canada,” he said.

At that time, in late September, the news cycle was dominated by the never-ending Epstein saga, U.S. President Donald Trump trying cancel late night talk show hosts and the pending government shutdown.

Here we are, months later, with the Epstein files still front and centre.

Not making the U.S. news isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the Canadian diplomats and delegations representing Canadian exporters reaching out in the U.S. to quietly reinforce how valuable our trading relationship is to both sides of the border.

There’s been plenty of criticism aimed at the Carney government lately for not keeping “elbows up” when dealing with the U.S. or failing to move quickly to get a new deal in place. It was hard not to grin when Ontario Premier Ford poked the bear with an ad campaign throwing Republican president Ronald Reagan’s words in the Trump administration’s faces.

However, it remains to be seen whether these tactics are helpful. Trump lashed out over the ad campaign by calling off trade negotiations with Canada.

That’s bad news for sectors operating outside of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement on trade, but most agricultural exporters continue to enjoy virtually tariff-free access to American processors and consumers, which puts them in a favourable spot relative to other competitors.

The North American trade pact comes up for review in 2026, and we can be certain U.S. negotiators will be gunning for concessions on supply management and who knows what else. It’s hard to imagine Canada emerging from a renegotiation with a better deal than what it has now.

That’s even more reason for Canada to slowly play the deal-making for now and keep the existing agreement intact for as long as possible. Time may work to its advantage.

It gives Canadians more opportunity to reach out to U.S. industry and politicians under the cloak of obscurity provided by the Trump administration’s headline-snatching scandals.

It gives Canada a bigger window to reduce its dependence on the U.S. market by knocking down interprovincial trade barriers and diversifying exports.

It also provides U.S. farmers and their organizations more time to feel the full impacts of Trump’s policies and experience his willingness to deflect blame when those policies don’t deliver as promised. U.S. cattle producers got a rude awakening a few weeks ago, when Trump blamed them for the high cost of beef.

It’s unclear how willing the U.S. sector will be to risk becoming a target if it speaks up against tariffs. It would only take a few well-placed U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids to cripple America’s meat and dairy production and processing.

More time increases the potential for the current administration to unravel. Next year boasts the mid-term elections in the U.S., when voters have an opportunity express any discontent.

There’s no denying uncertainty stifles business investment — and the longer Canadian exporters must live with that, the more constricting it will be.

However, there are also times when a little ambiguity is the lesser of two evils.

Laura Rance is executive editor, production content lead for Glacier FarmMedia. She can be reached at lrance@farmmedia.com