CBRE sees commercial real estate investment rising to $56B this year

TORONTO – A new report says investment in Canadian commercial real estate is expected to rebound this year, with the volume of property sales rising more than eight per cent.

CBRE’s real estate market outlook released Tuesday forecasted around $56 billion in total investment volume for 2026, including merger and acquisition activity and portfolio deals, up from an estimated $47 billion in 2025.

That would be the third-highest total in Canadian commercial real estate sales history.

But it comes against the backdrop of continued uncertainty in the domestic economy, which could weigh on growth and impede business decision-making this year.

“We’re coming off a year of uncertainty, but international capital has already voted in favour of Canadian commercial real estate,” said CBRE Canada president and CEO Jon Ramscar in a news release.

“We have seen assets purchased across the country due to our strong fundamentals and relative stability. In 2026, we expect widespread and competitive participation from all sources of capital, domestic and international. Not to mention that the resurgent office market will spur transactions and our retail market remains solid.”

The report said the office market has stabilized and is moving toward a period of sustained growth after two years of positive net absorption and with the national vacancy rate having peaked.

It noted investor sentiment has improved due to return-to-office mandates for public and private sector workers, with national absorption for office space projected to exceed double the historic average.

A separate CBRE report last month said the Canadian office vacancy rate dipped in 2025 for the first time since the pandemic as the return-to-office trend accelerated. The vacancy rate stood at 18 per cent at the end of last year, down from 18.7 per cent a year earlier.

However, no “meaningful” new construction in the office sector is expected to come online between this year and 2030. CBRE has said construction levels for new buildings stood at the lowest in 20 years and new starts hit a record low last year.

The latest report said firms looking for premium space with amenities will likely face increasing competition and diminishing options.

Meanwhile, Canada is seeing “largely balanced” market fundamentals within the industrial sector, which could face an “inflection point” this year amid a scheduled review of the Canadian-United States-Mexico Agreement in July.

CBRE said preserving the pact is key to stabilizing the industrial market, as the resilience of the Canadian economy in the face of U.S. tariffs has been largely due to carveouts from CUSMA.

It said it expects demand for industrial space to rise, helping net absorption rebound further to more than 20 million square feet this year, which would be back in line with national pre-pandemic norms.

The report also highlighted a more “stable” situation for the retail real estate sector compared with a year ago, with major brands expanding into new or previously untapped markets across the country.

CBRE said it expects retail sales growth to be “steady but slow,” with varying results across segments and cities, as households remain caution with their spending.

It noted the departure of Hudson’s Bay, which collapsed under the weight of debt last March and closed all of its stores just after its 355th birthday, has “unlocked a unique opportunity in a tight market” for retail space.

That has allowed landlords to reimagine large footprints, which has attracted strong interest from entertainment uses and large-format retailers.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 3, 2026.