Chinese market exposure puts Manitoba in trade deal picture

Days before a new trade agreement between Canada and China is set to take effect, some Manitoba industries are expecting relief, while others are stuck with uncertainty.

China implemented a 100 per cent tariff on a number of Canadian products in March 2025, including rapeseed oil, pork and peas. After a state visit to China in January, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced China would be lowering tariffs on products including canola meal, lobsters and peas, starting March 1 until the end of 2026.

In an analysis of the local impact the trade deal will have across the country published this week, the Institute for Research on Public Policy found some Manitoba communities were among the most reliant on the Chinese market.

Manitoba is home to three of the report’s 10 Canadian communities with the highest exposure to China exports. Parts of northwest Manitoba reported seven per cent of its jobs are tied to the Chinese market, the third-highest in the country, because of its ore mining industry. Parts of the Pembina Valley and Westman regions reported 6.4 per cent and 5.7 per cent reliance, respectively, the fifth- and sixth-highest rates in the country, both through farming exports.

“Manitoba is considerably exposed,” Ricardo Chejfec, a research director at the institute, said Wednesday. “It has a lot of communities that has a lot of workers in sectors for which trade with China is important for the province or for the community itself, things like canola seed, canola oil, canola meal, and to a lower extent, but still considerable, peas and pork.”

That exposure is a double-edged sword, Chejfec said.

Manitoba’s prevalent pork industry remains excluded from the tariff relief deal and China still maintains a 25 per cent tariff on Canadian pork. Canola oil also remains under tariffs.

The quick dissolution of Canada’s once-comfortable trade relationship with the U.S. now raises questions about the uncertainty that comes with any new deal, Chejfec said.

“The fact that it can become a risk under a different situation, in my mind, is what makes it a risk to be aware of,” he said. “It doesn’t mean it’s a bad thing, it doesn’t mean we need to fix it, but it does mean that we need to be aware of it and try to build resilience around it.”

Farmers have begun to see movement of canola into China, which is the sign the Manitoba Canola Growers Association was looking for to confirm negotiations were successful, said executive director Delaney Ross Burtnack.

Canola seed crop tariffs will drop to 15 per cent from 84 per cent — but that 15 per cent is still a concern, she said.

“There’s still work to do to really get back to freer trade, because even 15 per cent is going to be a barrier to some importing companies in China looking to purchase canola for the best price.”

There are opportunities to be explored for diversifying the canola market in the upcoming year — Burtnack gave canola use in biofuels as an example — but she also called it “a long-term play.”

“You don’t want to put your eggs in one basket when it comes to trade, however, you also have to go where the demand is, and demand is highest in the U.S. and China,” she said.

Meanwhile, Manitoba’s pork industry remains left out of the conversation, even after a year of difficulty.

Manitoba Pork general manager Cam Dahl said members have seen the value of their products decline about 20 per cent, and the 25 per cent tariff imposed by China will cost Manitoba about $35 million every year. “I think going in we were hopeful, and we continue to be hopeful that we will see a resolution to this issue.”

While Dahl calls talk of diversifying Canadian markets “positive,” he suggested Canada needs to ensure its current agreements are actually working. He pointed to the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, a free-trade deal meant to remove tariffs between the two bodies, signed in 2016. But in the years since, Dahl said, exports and imports of pork have been unfairly imbalanced.

“None of the potential has been realized because the European Union continues to put in place non-tariff trade barriers that are preventing us from exporting things like pork to the EU,” he said. “So we need to spend some time not just in exploring new markets, but making sure the agreements that we have already signed are working for Manitobans.”

malak.abas@freepress.mb.ca