Expert urges food, drink makers to look to foreign markets

Canada’s slowing population growth could restrict business expansion, a top economist for Farm Credit Canada warned Manitoba manufacturers.

Craig Johnston, the federal Crown corporation’s chief economist, addressed Prairie businesses at Farm Credit Canada’s Food and Beverage Summit Tuesday.

“There could be some modest growth in Canadian consumption of food and beverage,” Johnston said, relaying population numbers inside a Victoria Inn Hotel conference room.

Still, per-person spending on food is “stagnant, if not somewhat rising,” Johnson later told reporters.

He pointed to declining alcohol sales: Canadians are likely spending money they’d use for alcohol on groceries, which have increased in price faster than general inflation.

“We have to look outside of our borders for that growth potential,” Johnston said.

Statistics Canada recently revised its population estimate to show the country’s resident count grew slightly, by 0.5 per cent (or 189,425 people) between the second quarters of 2025 and 2026.

Earlier, it estimated the population decreased for the first time since Confederation.

The count is still a drastic slowdown in population growth — the lowest July-to-July growth since 1944-45, the agency reported. It follows a drop in temporary immigrants.

“A lot of growth is… outside of Canada and the United States,” Johnston said. “It’s going to really require us to think about how we can diversify to try to capture some of that growth, because other countries are doing it.

“If we don’t, we’re going to fall behind.”

Asia and Europe are especially attractive, Johnston said. Canada has a free trade agreement with Europe; it’s working on one with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, an Indo-Pacific conglomerate. Middle class segments are growing in parts of Asia.

Canada’s food and beverage-manufacturing industry could gain $12 billion by growing exports outside the United States, Farm Credit Canada has calculated.

“Not only does that bring more value back into Canada, it allows us to be more resilient to external shocks,” Johnston said. “Some of those are tariff-related, some of them are not — wars or the weather.”

Food & Beverage Manitoba is working on identifying “the ideal landing spots” for its 300-plus members, said Allan Kotz, the association’s director of operations and finance.

“It’s … something you need to be tremendously strategic about,” Kotz said. “It’s not like overnight you can go out.”

Countries such as Japan come with language barriers and, sometimes, a lack of understanding about the Canadian Prairies. Then there’s the question of transport, Kotz explained.

“If it’s more challenging to work with your most natural trade partner and there’s no increase where you are domestically, you have to look,” he said.

“With the population kind of stagnating, I think now is really the time to start looking at some of these markets outside of Canada.”

Food & Beverage Manitoba is working with the provincial government to find new conferences and markets, Kotz said. The association’s executive director visited Japan last year.

Meantime, Kotz expects more Manitoba firms to expand across Canada in the next three to five years. He’s noticed a growing ambition, and support from shoppers looking for local products, he said.

Abiding Citizen’s cocktail mixers and syrups have landed on Ontario and British Columbia liquor store shelves. The LCBO contacted the Manitoba company last year as it sought to launch a pilot project selling mixers, said Abiding Citizen co-owner Ryan Wiebe.

Wiebe later contacted BC Liquor Stores, another government-owned chain. He’s looking to expand further in Canada.

However, exporting beyond Canada comes with “complexity,” said Wiebe, who heads five food brands (including Bone and Marrow Broth Company and Westside Craft Sauce).

“Products that we say would be high-margin products for us, once you start shipping overseas, shipping to Europe, a lot of that margin is eaten up,” Wiebe said.

“Right now, we have considerable room to grow within Canada.”

Transitioning from markets to cafes and shops is a challenge in itself, noted Aira Taylo and Maureen Fabro, co-founders of Sweet Batch.

The cookie company began in 2023. Since then, key ingredients — butter, chocolate — have skyrocketed in price.

“Also, (there’s) the change in the consumer and their purchasing habits,” Fabro said. “Maybe they’re not buying cookies because they can’t afford their yogurt.”

Shipping cookies interprovincially is still a goal, they said.

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com