Consumer spending drives Winnipeg’s strong GDP growth: report

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This article was published 17/10/2017 (3139 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

With the fastest rate of population growth in nearly 30 years and low unemployment, Winnipeg is one of six Canadian cities that will see real GDP growth of 2.9 per cent or more in 2017, the Conference Board of Canada says in its latest economic report.

Strong consumer spending in the Manitoba capital, Toronto, Hamilton, Québec City, Vancouver, and Montréal is translating into robust growth in wholesale and retail trade, says the think tank’s autumn 2017 Metropolitan Outlook for 13 of Canada’s largest cities.

After rising by 3.2 per cent last year, real GDP growth in Winnipeg is expected to reach a solid 3.6 per cent this year, before slowing sharply to 1.4 per cent in 2018, the report said. Despite the looming slowdown, average annual employment growth will remain steady at 1.4 per cent over the next two years, cutting the unemployment rate from 6.5 per cent in 2016 to 5.7 per cent in 2018.

Population growth in Winnipeg came in at 2.2 per cent in 2016, the fastest rate of growth since data began to be collected in 1988, the board says. It is expected to average 1.7 per cent per year between 2017 and 2021.

For the province as a whole, the economic outlook isn’t as robust down the road, the board reports.

Real GDP growth in Manitoba is forecast to come in at a healthy 2.9 per cent this year before slowing to 0.3 per cent next year — placing the province at the bottom of all provinces. Employment growth for the province will cool and is set to average 0.5 per cent growth per year from 2017 to 2021. The Conference Board outlook says that business investment will decline annually from 2018 to 2021.

Things are looking up for cities in Alberta and Saskatchewan now that the impact of the oil price shock is subsiding, the report said. It sees nation-leading economic growth of 4.6 per cent in Calgary and 3.9 per cent in Edmonton in 2017, “though the pace of expansion will moderate in both metro areas in 2018.”

Regina and Saskatoon are also benefiting from a gradual rise in commodities prices, helping to fuel respective real GDP gains of 2.9 per cent and 3.6 per cent in 2017, the report said.

It expects Ottawa-Gatineau’s economy to expand by 2.5 per cent and Victoria’s expand by 2.4 per cent in 2017.

Halifax’s real GDP growth of 1.4 per cent in 2017 will trail that of other major Canadian metropolitan areas because of a contraction in primary and utilities output, due largely to a maturing offshore natural gas sector, the report said.