Recipe for inflation

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This article was published 20/11/2021 (1769 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Manitobans may need to make compromises this holiday season to keep their grocery bills manageable amid rising food prices.

Supply chain backlogs, labour shortages, temporary plant closures, climate change and inflation have affected production — and costs — in nearly every food sector.

“The prices are not going down. They’re going to stay higher for various products,” said Barry Prentice, a University of Manitoba supply chain management professor.

Meat was up 9.9 per cent from October 2020, according to Statistics Canada’s Consumer Price Index data released Wednesday. Specifically, bacon prices rose 20.2 per cent, beef jumped 14 per cent, and processed meat hiked 8.5 per cent.

Statistics Canada data from September noted overall food prices increased 3.9 per cent from the same time last year. Edible fats and oils, and dairy products, rose 18.5 and 5.1 per cent, respectively.

“I don’t think we should expect to see this as being continuously rising prices,” Prentice said. “But, certainly, it’s a rise in the price level.”

The cost of fuel — needed to transport goods — has skyrocketed. It was up 48.1 per cent this October from last, according to Statistics Canada. The supply chain will continue to be affected as gas prices increase, Prentice said.

“Cycles occur, and they do tend to be self-correcting, so we will eventually come out of this,” he said.

Rising prices reduce demand and can lead to more supply, he said. However, shocks to the system may come at any time — especially during a pandemic.

There are ways to keep grocery bills in check, even as people plan to feed more mouths during the holidays.

Making and abiding by a grocery list is essential, according to Chi Liao, a finance professor at the University of Manitoba.

“Don’t go to the grocery store on an empty stomach,” she said. “When I do that, it never ends well. I always end up with much more than I need.”

Cutting back on meat products will help, Liao said. So will buying meat in bulk and freezing it.

Perusing flyers and hitting sales are good ideas, as is asking family members to bring dishes for larger celebrations, Liao said.

“That also helps to ease some of the work involved with cooking a meal,” she said.

Don’t be surprised if a certain chip or pickle flavour isn’t available, according to Sylvain Charlebois, the director of Dalhousie University’s Agri-Food Analytics Lab.

“I think we should all expect fewer choices,” he said.

Companies have shut down some supply lines to keep up with demand, he said. He didn’t know when things would normalize but believed it could take another year.

Donations have saved Siloam Mission from rising prices.

“While we have noticed our food costs have increased somewhat, we may not be as impacted as others in the sector because a high percentage of our food is donated,” Kendall Ashcroft, Siloam’s communications specialist, wrote in an email.

Currently, the non-profit spends $3.63 per meal, as it did last year.

“We do anticipate we will be reviewing that number again in the near future,” Ashcroft wrote.

The shelter expects to serve around 600 people this Christmas. Pre-pandemic, it served over 1,000 on the holiday.

gabrielle.piche@winnipegfreepress.com