Jets gunning for NHL Draft Lottery luck

Memo to Winnipeg Jets fans, coaches and management: grab your rabbit’s foot. Scour the nearest field for four-leaf clovers. And — if your memory goes back that far — try to find what you were wearing on April 30, 2016, and hope it still fits.

This team could use a little luck.

The NHL Draft Lottery takes place at 6 p.m. Tuesday (live on Sportsnet), and the Jets are hoping their fortunes go from good to great.

Winnipeg finished 26th overall in the regular-season standings, which means it is currently slotted to pick seventh overall in the draft, scheduled for June 26 (first round) and 27 (rounds two through seven). But that position could rise or fall depending on how the ping-pong balls bounce.

The odds break down like this:

– Move up to No. 1: 6.5 per cent

– Move up to No. 2: 6.7 per cent

– Stay at No. 7: 44.4 per cent

– Drop to No. 8: 36.5 per cent

– Drop to No. 9: 5.6 per cent

As you can see, the most likely outcome is that the Jets stay put, followed closely by a one spot drop. But it’s worth remembering they entered the lottery a decade ago in the No. 6 spot and jumped to No. 2, which led to Patrik Laine. The Toronto Maple Leafs held onto No. 1 that year after finishing last, selecting Auston Matthews.

Perhaps the hockey gods will look Winnipeg’s way exactly 10 years later?

The 16 teams that missed the Stanley Cup playoffs are part of the NHL Draft Lottery, but there is a cap on movement: no club can jump more than 10 spots. And there will be two separate draws — one for the No. 1 pick and another for the No. 2 selection.

For the Jets, the implications are straightforward. They would drop one spot if a team ranked behind them wins one of the draws, and fall two spots if two teams leapfrog them. However it unfolds, Winnipeg is still in position to land a strong prospect. The clear preference, of course, is to pick as high as possible.

Most draft observers believe forwards Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg will be selected first and second overall, though the exact order continues to shift with typical pre-draft fluidity.

McKenna, from Whitehorse, spent this past season at Penn State after dominating the Western Hockey League a year earlier with 129 points in 56 games as a 16-year-old. Stenberg, a Swedish winger whose stock has surged in recent months, is coming off a strong season overseas. His older brother, Otto, is currently with the St. Louis Blues.

Both are widely viewed as elite prospects capable of stepping into an NHL lineup quickly and making an immediate impact — exactly the type of talent an aging and transitioning Jets roster could use in a league that is getting younger and faster with each passing season.

The fact these types of skaters can add so much for so little, playing on entry-level deals for the first three years, only enhances their value and importance.

The last three No. 1 overall picks — Matthew Schaefer (2025, New York Islanders), Macklin Celebrini (2024, San Jose) and Connor Bedard (2023, Chicago) — have quickly established themselves as must-see stars in the league.

Both McKenna, who is actually a cousin of Bedard’s, and Stenberg could soon join them in that category.

The next tier of projected picks includes an intriguing centre in Caleb Malhotra. The Toronto-born son of former NHL forward Manny Malhotra is enjoying a dominant playoff run with the Brantford Bulldogs (14 games, 13 goals, 13 assists) after an excellent regular season (29 goals and 55 assists in 67 games).

There is also a deep group of high-end defencemen in the mix. Chase Reid is viewed by many as the top blue-liner in the class — a Michigan native starring in the Ontario Hockey League. Keaton Verhoeff, an Alberta product playing at the University of North Dakota, brings size and mobility.

Manitoban Carson Carels, from Cypress River, has also elevated his stock with a strong season for the Prince George Cougars. What a story that would be if Winnipeg were to land the local lad. Carels and his family told the Free Press last week they’d be thrilled if a hockey homecoming were in the cards.

If the Jets were to remain at No. 7 or drop to No. 8, there is a realistic chance all six of those players could already be off the board. That said, draft night rarely follows a script, and movement up and down the board is common.

Other players expected to be in the top-10 mix include centres Viggo Björck (Sweden), Tynan Lawrence (Canada) and Oliver Suvanto (Finland); wingers Ethan Belchetz (Canada), Nikita Klepov (United States), Adam Novotny (Czechia) and Niklas Aaram-Olsen (Sweden); and defencemen Daxon Rudolph (Canada), Ryan Lin (Canada) and Alberts Smits (Latvia).

There is an old adage in pro sports: draft the best player available rather than drafting for need, and sort out positional balance later.

Still, for the Jets, there is a reasonable argument that a forward would be the preferred outcome this time around.

Winnipeg has invested heavily in high-end defensive prospects in recent drafts, selecting Elias Salomonsson (2nd round, 2022), Garrett Brown (4th round, 2022), Alfons Freij (2nd round, 2024), and Sascha Boumedienne (1st round, 2025). All are at various stages of development and showing considerable upside.

The same level of influx has not yet materialized at forward.

First-round picks from 2021 and 2022 are no longer in the system — Chaz Lucius was forced to retire due to medical issues, while Rutger McGroarty was moved in a deal that brought back Brayden Yager. Yager did spent much of his rookie pro season with the Manitoba Moose, alongside Brad Lambert (1st round, 2022) and Colby Barlow (1st round, 2023).

Jets general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff is expected to speak with media on Tuesday evening only if his team moves up. Otherwise, we’ll have to wait until closer to draft day to hear of his potential plans for the pick.

Winnipeg currently owns six other selections: a third-rounder (71st-overall), a fourth-rounder (116th), a fifth-rounder (135th), a sixth-rounder (167th) and two seventh-rounders (199th and 222nd).

winnipegfreepress.com/mikemcintyre