Haven’t we seen this flick before?

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 05/05/2003 (8434 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

IT all seems so familiar.The Tories are the first out of the campaign gate, posting big numbers, big promises and pointing accusing fingers at their political opponents.

The NDP, in stark contrast, spend the first few days accentuating the positive and making no significant campaign promises. They lie back in the tall grass, watching and waiting.

The Liberals, meanwhile, struggle to find their niche.

It’s the 2003 provincial election campaign, but based on its first 72 hours, there are more than a few similarities between it and the one in 1999.

In that campaign, the incumbent Tories roared off the starting line with a billion-dollar “50-50” plan that included $500 million in tax cuts and $500 million in new government spending. It was a bold launch to the battle, and one that appeared to leave opponents choking in the dust.

Except that when the votes were cast, it was the NDP who had surged ahead to cross the finish line with a majority government. The public, and in particular core Tory supporters, rejected Gary Filmon’s billion-dollar dream and banished his party from power.

University of Manitoba political scientist Paul Thomas said grand promises don’t usually sit well with voters.

“I think (the property-tax-cut promise) raises credibility issues for (the Tories),” Thomas said. “It hurt them the last time. I think Manitobans have a skeptical view of grand promises these days. They’ve been told too many times great things are going to happen, and then the government doesn’t deliver.”

Undaunted by this conventional wisdom about the 1999 campaign, the Tories once again have surged out of the blocks, promising a tax cut estimated by their opponents at around $400 million. Tory Leader Stuart Murray has also shown his feisty side, calling Premier Gary Doer a liar and giving every indication he will run an aggressive, nasty campaign.

While Murray was promising to cut taxes and tossing mud, Doer took a lazy campaign stroll through western Manitoba. Stopping at campaign offices from Virden to Neepawa, the premier talked of “reapplying” for the job of premier, but he didn’t talk about huge tax cuts or new spending.

Is the NDP just playing it cool, or do they not have anything in their campaign goody bag to compete with the thunder of the Tory promises?

“We have a plan, and right now it’s to focus on the ‘More to Do’ part of our campaign slogan,” Doer said yesterday. “The first three days we wanted to deal with what we’ve accomplished. We’ll leave all the flashy stuff to the other guys.”

If history is repeating itself in this election, Murray said yesterday it can be found in Doer walking down the same path as past NDP governments and spending beyond its means.

But the Tory leader is sparking concerns reminiscent of those about former premier Gary Filmon’s 1999 gambit, in large part because he won’t explain how his party plans to pull off the $400-million property-tax cut he promised on Day 1 of the campaign. Murray also wouldn’t say what programs he would cut to find extra money to fund such a tax reduction.

It all makes for a murky economic picture — a lot of big promises with no explanation of how to pay for them.

Meanwhile, Liberal Leader Jon Gerrard gives every indication he will continue to hammer away at the NDP’s record on health care and make additional health-related announcements.

Gerrard does so despite opinion polls that show Manitobans either feel the health-care system is too far gone to fix, or feel Doer’s NDP government has done a decent job of managing it.

Political commentators believe former Liberal leader Sharon Carstairs suffered in 1990 when she tried to go toe-to-toe with Filmon on the economy — widely believed to be his policy strong suit and the issue he was most strongly associated with.

It is a dicey strategy to attack a political opponent on what voters believe is their strongest issue. But Gerrard isn’t rethinking his plan to go hard at the NDPs health-care record.

“I think that there may have been some progress under the NDP, but clearly we need to take some major steps,” he said. “We’ve got major additional funding from the federal government and the agreement was that the province would deliver on major reforms to the system. The NDP are running as if they are going to do more of the same. We see there really is a major need for reform of the system.”

Yesterday, Gerrard stuck to his game plan when he announced a Liberal government would help make it easier for Manitobans to quit smoking. From the offices of anti-smoking crusader and Charleswood candidate Dr. Rick Ross, Gerrard pledged to include quit-smoking aids such as the nicotine patch, nicotine gum and the Zyban pill under pharmacare.

Gerrard estimated it would cost about $2 million a year for two years, after which time health-care savings would make the inclusion of the quit-smoking aids cost-neutral.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

mia.rabson@freepress.mb.ca

leah.janzen@freepress.mb.ca

PHOTO MIKE APORIUS/WINNIPEG FREE PRESS