Dion’s slow exit dragging down Grits, coalition

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 06/12/2008 (6476 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The world of Canadian politics may have been turned upside down, but the e-mails keep coming from Liberal Leader Stéphane Dion.

At press time Friday, three more arrived in the inboxes of journalists all over the country. One lamented the increase in the national unemployment rate as 70,000 jobs disappeared. Another paid respects to the three Canadian soldiers who were killed in Afghanistan. The last noted Dion would attend a rally in Toronto to protest the decision to prorogue Parliament.

You have no doubt heard about Roman Emperor Nero fiddling while Rome burns. It appears Dion is e-mailing while his own career burns.

After a historic week where Dion very nearly became interim prime minister of a coalition government, events were conspiring to overtake the beleaguered Grit chief. His colossal failure to deliver a simple videotaped address at a critical moment in the fight for control of the House of Commons not only weakened national support for the coalition. With his fuzzy, awkwardly framed head and listless delivery, Dion is now the poster child for political futility.

Dion’s caucus is now in full rebellion. Leadership contender Bob Rae has volunteered to travel the country to sell the coalition government to Canadians, pushing Dion to the background. Front-runner Michael Ignatieff is not openly campaigning for Dion to resign, but he has given up any pretense of support.

Columnists and editorial writers across the country are urging Dion to resign now, so that his party can select a new leader before Parliament resumes in late January. The timing is not great for the Liberals, but it can be done; in 1988, the Manitoba NDP completed a leadership campaign in three weeks, and installed a rookie cabinet minister named Gary Doer.

Unfortunately, if history is any indication, Dion may linger.

Following his electoral humiliation, Dion took days to decide to step down as leader, a decision that should have taken a few hours. Even so, Dion somehow persuaded the party to let him remain in control for another seven months while a new leader was chosen. It was a bad decision but nobody knew how bad until this past week.

Dion’s insistence on remaining a key player in the coalition, as the interim prime minister no less, made the fantastic concept of a coalition government into a political joke. How could a man who was so soundly defeated become prime minister? The mere suggestion discredited what was otherwise a legitimate parliamentary strategy.

The prospect of a coalition government was always destined to spook the electorate. However, Dion’s presence certainly added significantly to the discomfort. Simply put, he is not the leader to sell the concept of a coalition government. And unless someone can build some public support for that concept, it cannot be used as a threat to hold the Conservative government in line.

Poll results on the eve of last October’s election showed that Canadians were willing to support a coalition government should the Conservatives not win a majority. A Strategic Counsel poll indicated 46 per cent of respondents were willing to give a Liberal-NDP coalition a chance to govern; support for a coalition was strongest in Quebec (54 per cent) and Ontario (49 per cent) and weakest in the West (35).

However, when respondents were asked about a coalition propped up by support from the Bloc Québécois, support for a coalition dipped to 30 per cent nationally. More than 57 per cent rejected such a coalition out of hand.

We can see these poll results manifesting in public opinion now. Support for the coalition is low and it will take a heroic effort by a master communicator to rehabilitate the concept. Even if unseating Harper’s minority in favour of a union of opposition parties is not in the cards, the Liberals must find credible leadership to cause Harper to think twice about provoking the opposition to justify another snap election.

It is a watershed moment in the history of the Liberal party. Dion has already been washed over the falls. It is time for him to step aside.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca