Top job demands rare combination of smarts, charm

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 03/09/2009 (6189 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

For much of the last decade, Gary Doer’s political opponents told anyone who would listen that when the excessively popular NDP leader decided to hang up his spurs, his party would be hard pressed to find a successor.

According to this theory, once Doer was gone, Manitobans would find out the NDP talent pool was pretty thin.

On one level, that’s a pretty presumptuous premise; no party succeeds in government this long on the back of one individual. There are some smart and talented people in the NDP, even if they spent much of the last decade toiling in Doer’s shadow.

However, one of the great fundamental truths of politics is that leadership requires something more than an average dose of skill and charm. You can be smart, and you can have a modicum of charm, but only a few special politicians have enough of both to lead a party or a province.

The process of determining the depth of the talent pool started Wednesday, when Competitiveness Minister Andrew Swan, a family lawyer who was elected to the Legislature in 2004, became the first official leadership candidate.

At a news conference held in the newly renovated West End Cultural Centre on Ellice Avenue, one of Winnipeg’s poorest neighbourhoods, Swan presided over a low-key launch to his campaign. Swan hasn’t been in politics long enough to have a definitive track record, and there’s not much you can squeeze out of a 45-minute news conference that will tell you whether he’s got what it takes to lead both the NDP and Manitoba.

At first blush, it seems Swan will be a viable candidate. He is young (41), has a great resumé and seems dedicated to public service. He is athletic (a marathoner) has a family and a great network of community contacts.

At his official announcement on Wednesday, Swan was earnest, reasonably articulate and occasionally funny. (If there was any drawback, it was that the affable Swan started to sweat like a prize fighter near the end of the event. If he learned anything from being around Doer, it is that you must never let your enemies see you sweat.)

Moisture aside, Swan certainly presented like a man who is prepared for the battle. He was surrounded by many younger guns recruited over the last decade to create a foundation for a new generation to take over the party. The fact that he is getting support from colleagues like Health Minister Theresa Oswald, a leading candidate to replace Doer until she bowed out the same day, will not be lost on the NDP rank and file who are looking for a younger leader to take over.

Behind the scenes, Swan boasts the support and advice of two of the three members of Doer’s holy trinity of strategists. Swan can count on the experience and wisdom of both Bob Dewar, former chief of staff and campaign chairman in 1999 and 2003, and Eugene Kostyra, a former NDP finance minister who went on to become the premier’s top economic-development adviser. (Paul Vogt, currently clerk of the executive council and thus ineligible to dally in partisan politics, is the only member of the Trinity not on board the Swan express.)

Retiring leaders, especially when they are premiers, do not as a rule crown a successor. Once you’ve earned membership in the first ministers’ club, you cannot be seen to be manipulating the race to put your own person in the job. However, when you consider who’s on his team, and the general theme of his campaign, Swan is about as close as you’re going to get to a Doer-approved candidate.

The affable Swan certainly did not hide from the fact that he is a Doer-styled New Democrat and that he intends to follow his predecessor’s style of governing. Can he market himself as a younger version of Doer? Again, he will have to prove he is more than a nice guy with ambition.

In fact, if Swan hopes to define himself as the next great hope for the NDP, he will have to show he can work the big room. There are a great many politicians who can win over a small room with a few dozen people; only true leaders can inspire several hundred people at a leadership campaign. We have not yet seen him in that forum.

Swan is a soft-spoken man who used an understated announcement to kick off a somewhat underwhelming race. Things will no doubt heat up when other candidates appear. Finance Minister Greg Selinger is expected now to jump in, along with Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Steve Ashton.

However, while all three bring positive attributes to the race, none have shown they can operate at the level of a Gary Doer. If they hope to prove the enemy theory false, they had better use the next 45 days to show that there is life after Doer.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca