Province banking on growth, prof says

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 26/03/2010 (5653 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

THE first budget under Premier Greg Selinger didn’t just put Manitoba into a deep deficit — it also ended any speculation about a snap election.

But with all eyes now on the previously scheduled election date of Oct. 4, 2011, questions are being raised about what economic tricks the NDP might have up its sleeve with the next budget, which it will have to run on in the coming campaign.

"It’s not the numbers, it’s the messaging that really matters," said the University of Manitoba’s Jared Wesley, an assistant professor of political studies. "They are counting on outperforming their own projections."

The budget forecasts GDP economic growth of 2.5 per cent this year and three per cent in 2011. Some economists predict Canada’s economy will grow three per cent this year and next, but those numbers could be revised upwards as Canada continues to pull itself out of the recession more quickly than anticipated.

Wesley said that’s what the Selinger government is counting on — higher-than-expected growth. That growth will go towards the province’s bottom line and, more importantly for the NDP, towards a positive revision of Finance Minister Rosann Wowchuk’s deficit figures come this time next year.

"That’s what all governments do," he said. "They want to try to walk the fine line between projecting competence and then showing it."

Shannon Martin, director of provincial affairs for the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, said Tuesday’s budget sets up the theme of the 2011 NDP re-election campaign.

"If there’s one thing that Premier Greg Selinger has learned from his predecessor (former Premier Gary Doer, that’s to lower peoples’ expectations," Martin said. "You get them as low as you possibly can and that way when you exceed them by even one iota, you’re literally a hero, and that’s what this budget has done."

Selinger said the new budget is the best way to foster growth while not cutting people and services — nothing more.

"Every budget that we put forward is a budget that we want to be accountable for," he said. "Every single year we’ve done a budget we’re prepared to be accountable for it. It’s not an election budget — it’s a budget that meets the needs of the times.

"If you take a look across the country, no matter where governments are in the electoral cycle, they’re doing very similar things."

bruce.owen@freepress.mb.ca