Gun-registry battle hurt NDP in province: pollster

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This article was published 08/10/2010 (5471 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

THE federal NDP’s controversial push to keep the long-gun registry may have backfired in Manitoba, according to a new poll that shows a drop in NDP support may have pushed more voters toward the Liberal party.

A poll conducted exclusively for the Winnipeg Free Press by Probe Research Inc. found Jack Layton’s New Democrats lost six per cent of voter support in the last three months, and just 18 per cent of Manitobans said they would vote for the NDP.

Meanwhile, the survey found Michael Ignatieff’s Liberals have “leapfrogged” into second place, picking up 25 per cent of Manitoba voters, up from 21 per cent in June. Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s Conservatives are still No .1 among Manitoba voters, with 47 per cent throwing their support behind the governing party.

Probe Research vice-president Christopher Adams said the findings indicate the political war over the long-gun registry may have hurt the NDP in Manitoba.

Adams said he suspects Layton’s push to keep the registry alive hurt his chances in rural Manitoba, and “disappointed” Winnipeg voters who wanted to see the NDP get all their members on the same page.

“The thing that really stands out in this poll is the decline of the federal NDP in this province,” Adams said.

“It does look like the Liberals are benefitting from the slight drop in NDP support.”

The poll found the NDP lost support in both rural and urban areas. In Winnipeg, one in five voters said they would back the NDP in a federal election, down five per cent from June. In rural Manitoba, just 15 per cent of residents support the NDP, down from 21 per cent three months ago.

The results found Ignatieff’s Liberals were the main beneficiary from NDP losses, and are now the choice of nearly one-third of decided voters in Winnipeg, up from 25 per cent in June. The Liberals’ standing outside Winnipeg, however, remains essentially unchanged.

Adams said Ignatieff “brushed up” his image for his summer campaign tour, which may have also boosted his support in Manitoba. Ignatieff was in Winnipeg Thursday to host n “Open Mike” town hall at Tyndall Park School.

The poll found Conservatives added to their huge lead, and are up two per cent in both Winnipeg and rural areas.

The province-wide telephone survey of 1,002 Manitoba adults was conducted by Probe Research between Sept. 16 and Sept. 30. The results are within 3.1 percentage points either way of what they would have been if the entire adult population of Manitoba had been interviewed.

jen.skerritt@freepress.mb.ca