Are the voters motivated? We’ll know soon enough

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 27/10/2010 (5536 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Intrigue will rule this day.

All over Manitoba, voters go to the polls to elect new local governments. Nowhere is that intrigue going to be greater than in the capital city, where there will be no fewer than four new councillors (maybe more) and the race for mayor has been a knock-’em-down event. This is going to mean that whoever becomes mayor is going to need to manage a council with a much different outlook. And that’s a good thing; this is a city council that desperately needs to up its game.

However, equally intriguing is the issue of voter turnout. In case you haven’t been paying attention, there has been a significant increase in voter turnout in municipal elections held in other provinces this week and last.

In Calgary last week, business professor and activist Naheed Nenshi stunned pundits with his victory in the cowtown mayoral race. Voter turnout soared to 53 per cent of eligible voters, up from just 33 per cent. On Monday night, 53 per cent of eligible Torontonians turned out to elect veteran councillor Rob Ford as that city’s new mayor.

Now 50 per cent may still seem a bit on the lean side, especially when you consider about 60 per cent of eligible voters turn out for provincial and federal elections. But half is a whole lot better than one-third and as an emerging national trend, it’s all good.

Why the spike in voter engagement? A slow but steady buildup of critical commentary about low voter turnout might have shamed a few people into voting. Dwindling electoral participation has become the scourge of democracy, not just in this country but around the world.

In the British general election held in May — a battle that resulted in Britain’s first hung Parliament in 36 years — voter turnout was just 65 per cent. That was up four points from the 2005 general election but given the drama of that election, it seems a bit underwhelming. In the 2008 United States general election, the world was transfixed as Democrat Barack Obama won a resounding victory and made history as the first African-American president. Unfortunately, only 61 per cent of eligible Americans showed up to play their part in history.

In Canada, the recent surge in turnout in local government elections could be a sign of things to come at other levels of government. For at least two years now, voters have been possessed of a great ambivalence. The recession was our pressing concern and there seemed little time or energy to worry about forcing a change in political leadership. No leader was blamed for the recession, but neither were they given any credit for the recovery. As a result, incumbents may have been lured into thinking they had been spared a recessionary blowback.

That may be changing. Across Canada, incumbent political leaders are facing uphill battles. British Columbia’s Gordon Campbell and Ontario’s Dalton McGuinty have dropped into the single digits of support. In Toronto and Calgary, where there was no incumbent running, voters embraced candidates who adopted anti-establishment postures. Could the winds of change be blowing? Maybe, and maybe not. It is hard and somewhat dangerous to draw comparisons between Toronto and Calgary, two communities with profoundly different political traditions. Similarly, it would be pointless to use those battles to the east and west of us to get the read on Winnipeg’s vote.

What can we expect today? Voter turnout here will be higher, but will it exceed 50 per cent as it did in Calgary and Toronto? Very hard to say, but it would be a very bad trend indeed if we didn’t break the 50 per cent level, as well. And there’s really no reason this city can’t put in a similar effort, in large part because all the ingredients of a good mayoral race are there.

Although there has been a dearth of good policy, there has been lots of contrast and conflict between incumbent Sam Katz and challenger Judy Wasylycia-Leis. He is a business-friendly, latent Conservative with a persecution complex and a penchant for secrecy; she is the sometimes shrill former NDP MP and MLA who is hoping to use a profoundly underwhelming campaign to become the first challenger in half a century to unseat an incumbent Winnipeg mayor. I guess you’d have to call her an optimist.

Katz is running comfortably ahead in most polls. However, a higher voter turnout would likely benefit Wasylycia-Leis and tighten this race considerably. The possibilities are endless.

All we need now are the voters.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca