The final push for victory is on

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This article was published 27/10/2010 (5762 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

Mayoral front-runners Sam Katz and Judy Wasylycia-Leis each enter today’s civic election with a different advantage up their sleeves.

Katz, the two-term incumbent, has a lead in recent polls that place him anywhere from six to 20 points ahead of his main opponent.

Wasylycia-Leis, the former NDP MP and MLA, is believed to possess a larger pool of election-day volunteers — and the unpleasant weather predicted for Winnipeg might amplify that advantage.

As of Tuesday evening, Environment Canada was forecasting winds in excess of 60 kilometres per hour, at least 10 millimetres of rain and a high of 4 C.

The cold, soggy weather has the potential to dampen voter turnout. As recently as Friday, city election officials hoped voter participation in this election would exceed a record set in 1971, when 60.7 per cent of eligible voters went to the polls.

Bad weather won’t benefit the incumbent, surmises Michael Diamond, a Winnipeg Conservative organizer who served as chief operations officer and election-day co-chairman for Toronto mayor-elect Rob Ford’s successful campaign.

“People don’t brave bad weather for the status quo,” said Diamond, who has returned to Winnipeg to help Coun. Justin Swandel retain his St. Norbert seat. “A vote to support the status quo is less urgent than a support for change.”

But even the best election-day machine in the world — the volunteers who call voters up at home, drive them to the polls and otherwise beat the bushes for all possible friendly votes — can’t sway the results of an election that isn’t close to begin with.

An enormously successful get-out-the-vote effort can erase a five-point lead in popular support, Diamond said. But if Katz’s popular support is significantly higher, Wasylycia-Leis simply cannot win.

“Ten per cent of the vote is too much of a barrier,” Diamond said. “It’s almost impossible to turn that kind of lead around in 12 hours.”

In light of the election arithmetic, both the Katz and Wasylycia-Leis campaigns plan to work furiously for every minute of the 8 a.m.-to-8 p.m. voting period today.

Both campaigns will rely on volunteers to call their respective supporters, many of whom were identified through calls and mail-outs as early as June. Drivers will be deployed to get people to polling stations. Other volunteers will knock on doors or be stationed at phone lines or volunteer centres to answer questions.

The Katz campaign has at least 400 volunteers working on election day. The Wasylycia-Leis campaign has at least 700.

At his Notre Dame Avenue campaign headquarters, Katz said he cannot count on popular support alone to win him a third term in office. But he conceded the weather could provide his opponent with an advantage.

“That’s always a possibility. We’ve talked about her machine,” he said. “Anything can happen. Anything’s possible.”

Wasylycia-Leis also said she’s not placing too much stock in the polls and believes the mayoral vote remains a neck-and-neck race. She, however, discounted the notion weather may give her an advantage.

“Winnipeggers are used to voting in pretty inclement weather,” she said in an interview. “We’re a hardy bunch. It shouldn’t be a factor in terms of turnout.”

Wasylycia-Leis plans to vote at 8:15 a.m. at Luxton School in her home ward of Mynarski. Katz plans to vote at 9:45 a.m. at Shaftesbury High School, in Charleswood-Tuxedo.

Both mayoral front-runners are planning victory parties at Canad Inns properties. Katz supporters will gather at the downtown Radisson Hotel, while Wasylycia-Leis supporters are bound for Canad Inns Polo Park.

In other mayoral-race news, Wasylycia-Leis received a late pair of endorsements on Tuesday, from former city police chief David Cassels and Transcona Coun. Russ Wyatt.

bartley.kives@freepress.mb.ca

Numbers to beat

Voter turnout in Winnipeg, 2006: 38.2 per cent

Record voter turnout, 1971: 60.7 per cent