Who knew being in second place could feel so good?

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 28/04/2011 (5579 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The words rolled out of Jack Layton’s mouth like he had been saying them his whole life. “As your prime minister…”

The several hundred supporters who gathered Wednesday morning at Winnipeg’s Indian and Métis Friendship Centre roared and screamed. Layton tried to start his sentence again, “As your prime minister…” Again, he was drown out by the cheering.

“It sounds like you like that phrase,” Layton joked, and the crowd joined in on a hearty belly laugh.

There was a time, not so long ago, when Jack Layton was mocked every time he told people he was campaigning to be prime minister. Reporters would roll their eyes. Opponents would chuckle. Layton would defend his bravado by suggesting he always believed that, given the right circumstances, he could win this thing.

Although it remains virtually impossible for Layton to be prime minister, reporters are rolling their eyes a little less these days and political opponents are certainly not chuckling. Thanks to a recent surge in support, the NDP are very much a factor in this election. And while there are more questions than answers about whether the NDP surge is the real deal, it’s pretty exciting stuff for a party that has been written off more than once.

“Change is possible,” Layton told his Winnipeg faithful. And you know, it appears he could be right.

The polling trends are astounding. Although the numbers vary from pollster to pollster, most surveys have the NDP solidly in second place. Some have the party closing in on the Tories. An Angus Reid poll released Wednesday had the Tories in first place with 35 per cent support, and the NDP close behind with 30 per cent.

Perhaps someone should have seen this coming. Most pundits, myself included, saw the Liberals as the only party that could realistically stop the Tories from winning a majority. This scenario was reinforced early in the campaign when the Liberals closed the gap with the Tories and the NDP dropped down to near-Green party levels. Nobody suspected voters would turn their backs on both the Tories and Liberals and look for an alternative.

Following the English and French language debates, in which Layton was deemed to be the unofficial winner, the Liberals began to lose ground and the NDP gained momentum. Starting last weekend, the polls started showing the NDP and Liberals neck-and-neck, before Layton’s crew shook loose and took over second place in virtually all polls.

How Layton and the NDP have surged is a bit of a mystery. The NDP have run a pretty good campaign, although they have promised to spend the most of any federal party and are a bit weak on how they would pay for it. It may be that voters have tired of the offerings from the Conservatives and the Liberals and are willing to try something new. With no disrespect to Elizabeth May and the Greens, Layton’s NDP are the safest and most practical way voters can try something new.

What are the consequences of the NDP surge? Layton and his party could merely replace the Liberals as the official Opposition to a Tory minority or slim majority government. Or, if the NDP can use their new-found support to take a bite out of Tory ridings in the West, Layton might have created a new critical mass in Parliament where together, the Liberals and New Democrats have the seats to govern. The NDP uptick has spawned new scenarios in what was shaping up to be a pretty unpredictable campaign.

There are, however, some sobering realities surrounding the NDP spike. Support for the NDP is not universally strong in all regions across the country. The New Democrats are soaring in Quebec, where it is at the moment the most popular of the four parties in the running in la belle province. However, it remains unclear whether the NDP has the ground troops to get out the vote and translate that poll support in Quebec into a windfall of seats.

The NDP remains an also-ran on the Prairies, and unusually weak in Ontario, a province the party needs to do well in if it has any hope of becoming the official Opposition. Ontarians have already experimented with an NDP protest vote in the late 1980s and they still haven’t forgiven former NDP premier Bob Rae, now a Liberal MP, for the experience. The lack of NDP traction in Ontario once again raises the possibility the Tories could win a majority by sweeping the largest province primarily with a Liberal-NDP split.

For now, fans of politics should enjoy the sheer wow factor of what Layton and the NDP have accomplished. The surprising rise of Canada’s perpetual third party is an important reminder that election campaigns still matter, and that taking voters for granted will eventually come back to haunt you.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.