Haven’t we heard this song and dance before?

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 04/06/2011 (5456 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

The timing seems a bit off.

Friday’s throne speech came with a strong sense of déjà vu. Didn’t we just have a throne speech, and didn’t the government just introduce a budget? Ah, but we can’t forget that wonderful federal election, the one with the strong narrative and somewhat surprising result. It seems now like it occurred a decade ago.

True to the nature of throne speeches, this most recent one did not contain any news of seismic proportions. Throne speeches are events used by governing parties to create impressions and galvanize brands. It’s not about shock and awe and heavy headlines, although secretly many journalists would love it if one day before we’re all sent to the ink-stained wretch retirement home we could cover a throne speech that genuinely took our collective breath away. We’ll have to save that experience for another day.

The throne speech confirmed that the Conservative government is sticking to its pre-election agenda. This includes a new omnibus law and order bill which will no doubt toughen laws and lengthen sentences, new tax credits for arts and cultural programs, enhanced benefits for seniors, legislation to abolish the long-gun registry and per-vote subsidies for political parties, and ending the Canadian Wheat Board’s monopoly. The Senate will not be abolished, or converted into a 100-per-cent elected chamber, but there will be measures to allow for term limits and to allow provinces to elect senators.

It’s important to note that once again, Harper is proving there is no secret agenda lurking beneath the veneer of his government. Having governed for five years already, this is a throne speech that gives every indication that Harper is in this for the long term. If he agrees to finally live up to the terms of his own fixed-date election law, Harper will have been prime minister for nearly a decade. No one knows for sure what Harper has in store for the country over the next four years, and it’s always possible that a secret agenda could leak out in dribs and drabs. Only time will tell.

For now, all we can say for sure is that Friday’s Throne Speech was built out of things the Tories were doing, or said the wanted to do in the minority parliament prior to the spring election. Now, armed with a solid majority, it seems like it’s clear sailing for Prime Minister Stephen Harper. However, it would be wrong to assume that majority is somehow equated with easier.

It is, to be fair, a lot easier for the government to get legislation passed but it is not necessarily easier to govern. In a perverse way, minority parliaments provide governing parties with an excuse when things go wrong. Not enough progress on a file? Blame it on the intransigent minority parliament. Core supporters upset that you haven’t fulfilled a key campaign promise? Damn opposition and their obstructionist ways! With a majority now, and a pretty comfortable one, Harper no longer has the opposition to blame if his government falls short of a promise.

In addition, with greater power comes greater expectations, both from supporters and opponents. You are the master of your own destiny, and people expect more progress on the major files. Having legislation die on the order paper of the minority parliament rarely sparks outrage. With a majority, allowing legislation to die is a sign of a poor work ethic or a shortage of conviction.

While there was not much in the way of stated intrigue Friday, as is the case with many throne speeches, it is the issues that are not mentioned that are perhaps the most important to watch. These issues in particular will likely define the success of the first Harper majority government.

In the election campaign, Harper bit off two enormous promises that marked dramatic shifts from pre-election policies and positions: first, the offer of a backdated multibillion-dollar HST settlement for Quebec; and second, a pledge to eliminate the federal deficit in 2014 one year earlier than previously forecast.

Both measures, which have strong 10-figure implications for the federal treasury, were not part of the Tory government’s spending plan as outlined in the federal budget delivered just prior to the election. That has made many pundits and chattering-class commentators wonder how exactly Harper and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty would engineer a quicker end to the deficit at a time when they are paying out billions more in new pledges. Remember, in addition to slaying the deficit, the Tories are offering Quebec a post-dated cheque for implementing the HST, buying top-of-the-line fighter jets and offering the provinces annual increase of six per cent in the health care transfer payments, Both the private-sector economists and public-sector watchdogs, like Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page, have essentially called the deficit pledge a bluff. Revenues will certainly play a role in addressing the deficit, but drastic spending cuts may be the only way to keep that schedule. There will be many critics prepared to identify that alone as evidence of the aforementioned the secret agenda.

This throne speech reminds us that for politicians and those who like to follow their every move, politics is very much an exercise in delayed gratification. Frustrating for some, all we can say for certain is that the truth will be revealed. Sometime before the next election.

 

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca