The rise and fall of the NDP

Hey there, time traveller!
This article was published 07/03/2015 (3941 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

To paraphrase one of the greatest minds of our generation, mid-1990s rapper Coolio, “there ain’t no party like a New Democratic Party ’cause the New Democratic Party don’t stop.”

In power in Manitoba since 1999, the NDP has put together one of Canada’s longest-running political dynasties, second only in duration to the more than 43-year Progressive Conservative government in Alberta.

Now, however, the Manitoba NDP is fearful the 16-year party may actually come to a stop. That’s the impetus behind this weekend’s leadership contest, which may very well determine whether the party can secure another mandate in 2016.

Here’s how the Dippers got to where they are:

 

September 2011

During the last provincial election campaign, Hugh McFadyen’s Tories claim the Greg Selinger’s NDP government is preparing to hike the provincial sales tax to nine per cent. The premier denies this vehemently.

“Ridiculous ideas that we’re going to raise the sales tax. That’s total nonsense. Everybody knows that,” he says following a debate.

Under provincial law, the PST couldn’t rise without a referendum, officials note. The NDP increases its plurality in the October 2011 vote.

 

March 2013

On budget day, Selinger announces the PST would rise to eight per cent and said the resulting revenue would pay for infrastructure and flood recovery.

Provincial budget documents, however, show the province planned to spend less on infrastructure that year than it did in 2012.

Seizing upon the hike, the Progressive Conservatives, now led by Brian Pallister, begin a two-year campaign to ostensibly fight the PST hike, noting the province is subverting its referendum law. In reality, the campaign is intended to draw attention to the premier’s about-face.

 

March 2014

A Probe Research poll gives the Tories an 18-percentage-point lead over the NDP. This narrows to 13 points by June, but the hand-wringing begins behind the scenes, as party officials contemplate a defeat by the Progressive Conservatives in an election expected in 2016.

Summer 2014

Selinger holds one-on-one meetings with NDP caucus members and some political staff, asking for advice about whether he should stay or go. Some allege they were no longer trusted by the premier after telling him what he didn’t want to hear.

 

September 2014

NDP caucus members are provided with polling data suggesting Pallister’s PST publicity campaign has worked and that the Progressive Conservatives will win big in 2016 if Selinger remains premier. This sparks a behind-the-scenes caucus revolt.

 

October 2014

Selinger cancels a trade mission to China, ostensibly to deal with an indigenous protest at a Manitoba Hydro dam — but primarily to deal with the growing caucus rebellion.

Days later, former NDP MP and MLA Judy Wasylycia-Leis finishes a distant second in Winnipeg’s mayoral race after leading in the polls most of the year. The damage to the NDP brand is floated as one reason for the size of Mayor Brian Bowman’s margin of victory.

By the end of the month, Finance Minister Jennifer Howard, Justice Minister Andrew Swan, Health Minister Erin Selby, Jobs and Economy Minister Theresa Oswald and Municipal Government Minister Stan Struthers publicly call on Selinger to resign. He declines.

November 2014

The so-called Gang of Five caucus dissidents resign from cabinet, placing Manitoba’s political turmoil on the national stage. Selinger assembles a new cabinet and the rebels are allowed to remain in caucus.

NDP staff branded as disloyal begin streaming out of the Manitoba legislature, but pressure on Selinger remains.

Within a week, he calls for a leadership contest at the NDP’s convention. This sparks weeks of wrangling over the rules governing how the race will unfold.

 

December 2014

After a month of messy political machinations over the rules of the leadership campaign, the NDP decides Selinger can remain leader as he runs to keep his job. A new Angus Reid poll then places the Manitoba NDP at an all-time low. By the end of the year, Oswald and Steve Ashton officially enter the party leadership race.

 

January and February 2015

Early in the year, Selinger files his nomination papers. A three-way battle for delegates ensues — and proves to be just as awkward as the wrangling over the rules governing the contest.

Unions are handed large blocs of delegate votes, over and above riding delegates. Every candidate claims different totals for delegate support. And some riding contests are marred by accusations some delegates were not counted.

 

This weekend

The NDP convention is held. It’s expected to take two ballots to declare a winner.

 

bartley.kives@freepress.mb.ca