Sausage Factory insiders chew the political fat

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This article was published 14/09/2015 (3688 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

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At the halfway point of the longest federal election in Canadian history, there have been plenty of memorable moments. Reputations have taken a beating, fingers have been pointed, strategies have been revamped and messages have been tweaked.

But even after all those weeks of campaigning, the country finds itself where it started: in a tight, three-way race between the incumbent Conservative party, the New Democratic Party and the Liberal party. Although there have been surges and slumps, none of the three big parties has been able to break away from the others.

‘I think Mr. Harper knew that we were going to go through tough times’ — Big Blue

For insight into what the parties have done, and what they may do from this point in the campaign through to Oct. 19, the Free Press has once again convened the Sausage Factory’s panel of political insiders.

Big Blue, True Grit and Orange Crush are each, in their own right, accomplished operatives who have had a hand in managing campaigns at the local, provincial and even national level.

The three insiders were asked this past weekend to reflect on their campaigns, and the campaigns of their opponents.

What are the best and the worst aspects of your party’s campaign, so far?

According to Big Blue, Conservative Leader Stephen Harper made the decision to call an early election knowing he could outspend and out-message his opponents. Unfortunately, a summer when the trial of suspended Conservative Sen. Mike Duffy on fraud and bribery charges was really the only story on the campaign trail has translated into six weeks of rough sailing.

“There are some people wondering about the wisdom of that decision,” Big Blue said. “But I think Mr. Harper knew that we were going to go through tough times and stumble a bit when not as many people were watching. We made some mistakes, but we’re making some changes now and it seems to be working.”

Among the best things Harper has done, Big Blue said, was the decision to have national campaign chair Jenni Byrne and chief of staff Ray Novak leave the national tour and return to the Conservative war room in Ottawa. “She should never have been out travelling with the leader. It was a mistake in strategy for sure.”

‘We’re way more prepared at the local campaign level’

— True Grit

On the plus side of the equation, Big Blue argued that Harper’s handling of the Syrian refugee crisis will prove to be, in the long run, a positive campaign posture. While the Liberal and NDP campaigns have called for the immediate airlifting of Syrian refugees, Harper has taken a more cautious approach that Big Blue suggested will ultimately be more popular with a greater number of Canadians.

Over in the Liberal camp, there is much celebration that Leader Justin Trudeau has been able to improve his party’s standings in national polls. Just a few weeks ago, the Liberals were lagging in third place; this past week, several polls had the Liberals leading a very close race.

The best part of the Liberal campaign to date, True Grit said, is the training and support for its local campaigns. Better training and voter identification technology has allowed the local campaigns to be much more efficient in identifying Liberal voters, and those who might lean Liberal.

“This is the first election ever where we know which doors to knock on, and which ones to skip because they’re not ours and never going to be,” said True Grit. “We’re way more prepared at the local campaign level.”

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And yet, there are concerns that Trudeau and the national campaign have not done enough to weaken the NDP campaign. Liberals understand that if they are ever to have a chance at governing, eventually they are going to have to win head-to-head battles with New Democrats.

Over in the NDP camp, Orange Crush said most New Democrats are pleasantly surprised that, this far into the campaign, the party is still positioned to win the October election. One of the biggest contributing factors to that is the party’s continued dominance in Quebec and British Columbia, two key battleground provinces.

‘We’re going to have to step it up there if we want a good outcome’ — Orange Crush

The best aspect of the federal campaign has been the branding of NDP Leader Tom Mulcair, who continues to be seen by many as having the experience to lead Canada. That is a great victory in the court of public opinion for any politician who has not, in fact, governed, Orange Crush said.

However, the party’s inability to gain traction in Ontario remains the biggest concern. With the country split along regional lines, vote-rich Ontario seems destined to decide which party ultimate governs. “The numbers are obviously not where we’d like them to be,” Orange Crush said. “We’re going to have to step it up there if we want a good outcome.”

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca

Dan Lett
Columnist

Dan Lett is a columnist for the Free Press, providing opinion and commentary on politics in Winnipeg and beyond. Born and raised in Toronto, Dan joined the Free Press in 1986.  Read more about Dan.

Dan’s columns are built on facts and reactions, but offer his personal views through arguments and analysis. The Free Press’ editing team reviews Dan’s columns before they are posted online or published in print — part of the our tradition, since 1872, of producing reliable independent journalism. Read more about Free Press’s history and mandate, and learn how our newsroom operates.