More than enough blame for NDPs crushing defeat

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This article was published 19/04/2016 (3514 days ago), so information in it may no longer be current.

It will be a debate that will consume New Democrats for years, maybe even decades to come.

Was Greg Selinger’s decision to stay on as leader the principal cause of the NDP’s crushing defeat Tuesday? Or should the blame be laid at the feet of the dissident cabinet ministers — the so-called Gang of Five — who broke ranks and publicly called for Selinger to step down?

For some New Democrats, it will be pointless to even broach those questions. After nearly 17 years in government, the NDP finds itself perilously close to the position it occupied in 1988: a defeated, deeply indebted party with an uncertain future. Dwelling on the “how” and “why” of a scenario such as that will seem like a wasted effort.

However, for many core supporters, there will be much to debate in the coming years as the party searches for a new leader and a new identity. These people will want to know if there was really anything that could be done to stop the Progressive Conservative juggernaut, or whether it was impossible to stop the winds of change from blowing after governing the province for nearly two decades.

To begin to answer these questions, it will help to look back on the major accomplishments and missteps during his eight years at the helm. In short, Selinger’s record as premier is a mixed bag.

It is true Selinger governed during untenable times. His tenure is pockmarked by some of the most expensive natural disasters in the province’s history, and the most profound global economic crisis since the 1930s. Government revenues evaporated while the demands in core service areas — health and education — continued climbing. It is unlikely any leader of any political stripe could have avoided deficits in such challenging times.

However, even with those burdens, there is evidence of bad judgment and hasty decision-making, particularly in the case of the PST hike.

Selinger dropped the PST hike for infrastructure into the 2013-14 budget less than two weeks before it was tabled, against the advice of senior cabinet ministers. The suddenness of his decision meant the tax increase came forward with no communications strategy. It also meant potential allies in local government, the business community and construction industry were reticent to jump in and support Selinger and the NDP. The combination of all those factors significantly eroded support for both Selinger and the NDP.

For all intents and purposes, it was justifiable for New Democrats to ask Selinger to step down based solely on his performance on that file. The lack of political strategy and muddled messaging combined to form a millstone around the neck of the NDP that made it vulnerable in this election. Premiers in other provinces have certainly stepped down for less. But Selinger decided to stay on. That decision has caused a major rift in NDP ranks that will remain for years.

On the one side, you have dissidents who believe that once Selinger botched the PST hike, the only way to save the NDP was to find a new leader. Selinger allies tell a different story. They argue Selinger was well on the way to rebuilding his brand and that of the party when the dissidents struck.

First, the issue of whether Selinger was on the way to rebuilding support for the NDP.

It is true that by the summer of 2014, Selinger and the NDP were on a modest rebound. A Probe Research poll in December 2013 had the NDP trailing the Tories by 22 points; by June 2014, a Free Press-Probe Research poll showed the deficit at just 13 points. More importantly, in Winnipeg where most of the province’s seats are located, the NDP and Tories were running neck and neck. This was essentially the same position the NDP faced before the 2011 election.

If there was any concern in NDP ranks about the uptick, it was that Selinger remained well behind his party in popularity. In the same month that Probe reported an NDP resurgence, Pollster Angus Reid’s regular rankings of premiers by popularity showed he had the lowest approval rating (26 per cent) of any premier in the country.

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By September, the uptick was disappearing. A Probe poll showed NDP support had dipped four points, while Angus Reid reported Selinger’s approval rating had sunk to 19 per cent. These numbers were backed up by internal polling showing all trend lines were pointing down for Selinger and the NDP. Leslie Turnbull, the party’s pollster, warned Selinger he was headed to “annihilation territory.”

It was at this point the coup erupted. The Gang of Five cabinet ministers went public in late October 2014 with their desire to see Selinger step down. They resigned in early November, triggering a leadership battle that Selinger barely won in March 2015.

Although the debate will continue for some time, the reality is both sides in this power struggle have a point. The dissidents were correct when they argued Selinger was unlikely to recover from his bungled decision to raise the PST, and that a new leader was perhaps the only way to stave off the kind of thrashing the NDP suffered Tuesday. Having said that, it is hard to get away from the fact the Gang of Five added materially to the magnitude of the NDP defeat.

New Democrats will likely spend years trying to figure out who was to blame for the NDP’s historic defeat. In the end, they’ll realize what everyone else has known for some time: they’re all to blame.

dan.lett@freepress.mb.ca